The European Commission is checking whether laws Ukraine’s parliament passed last week earn it a €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) EU payment, spokesperson Balázs Ujvári told reporters in Brussels on 19 October. He also said Ukraine’s 2027 funding gap stands at about €70 billion, and that the EU “cannot do this all alone.” How Ukraine pays for Russia’s war next year now depends on reforms in Kyiv and on money from Europe and beyond.

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid and cities, and Kyiv already faces a hole in next year’s war budget before any new military spending. Foreign money keeps salaries, pensions, and repairs flowing while Ukraine spends its own revenue on defense. So each delayed payment is felt at home while Russia hits the energy system again.

Brussels reads Kyiv’s new laws before paying

The payment is the second tranche of the EU’s macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, and each one depends on reforms, Ujvári said at the Commission’s midday briefing.

“We saw that last week some important laws were adopted in the Rada, and we are in the process of analyzing these laws and we will formulate our assessment thereafter,” he said.

On its third attempt, parliament passed a law on 15 October ending the VAT exemption for foreign parcels worth up to €150 from 1 July 2027, and making online marketplaces collect the tax. The Commission had warned the law was one of 12 conditions for the tranche. Fewer than 1% of the 75 million parcels Ukrainians receive each year were taxed, and lawmakers had rejected the measure twice despite IMF pressure.

About €30 billion is in the pipeline for Ukraine this year, mostly under the EU’s €90 billion support loan, if reforms continue, Ujvári said.

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A €70 billion gap for 2027

Current pledges leave a gap of about €70 billion for 2027, Ujvári said, even counting the €45 billion ($52 billion) the EU has set aside for next year and some partners’ commitments.

“We cannot do this all alone. Therefore, our partners in general must step up,” he said. “They have to come forward with pledges, and they have to deliver on those commitments.”

On 16 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked EU leaders for at least €70 billion more for 2027. They tasked the Commission with a proposal but set no deadline. Asked whether it would revisit using frozen Russian assets, Ujvári said it was “a little bit early” to discuss options in that detail. New EU borrowing has also grown costlier: 10-year rates rose from 3.2% to just above 4% in six months, he said.

The €90 billion loan was designed on the assumption that the war would end in 2026. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Slovakia and Hungary would opt out of new aid but would not block others.

Slovakia’s Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar has suggested that the international community may need to "perhaps" forgive Russia’s actions and resume dialogue with Moscow as a means to end the war in Ukraine.

His remarks came after Slovakia requested that the adoption of the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia be postponed until a decision is made on the consequences for the member states from RePowerEU, the European Commission's initiative to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Blanar, speaking to domestic media, said the ongoing war cannot be resolved on the battlefield and stressed the importance of diplomacy and international law. "Let us return to respect for international law and seek ways to communicate with the Russian Federation," he said on June 29. "And perhaps even forgive everything that has happened."

The comments mark another example of how Slovakia’s current leadership is diverging from the broader pro-Ukraine stance of the EU and NATO.

Under Prime Minister Robert Fico, Bratislava has adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Moscow, including continuing diplomatic engagement while most Western nations cut ties following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

Earlier this year, Fico attended Russia’s Victory Day Parade in Moscow, where he met with President Vladimir Putin. However, he dismissed the idea of engaging with President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I see no reason to meet with the Ukrainian president," Fico said in a recent interview with Slovak broadcaster STVR. "My meeting with President Zelensky has no significance because he hates me," he added.  Zelensky has not yet responded to Fico's claims.

While Fico halted Slovak military support for Ukraine upon taking office in 2023, he has paradoxically voiced support for Ukraine’s European Union membership. "Ukraine's EU membership brings more advantages than disadvantages for Slovakia," the prime minister said.

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on June 28 that he does not intend to meet directly with President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming that the Ukrainian president "hates" him, as relations between the two countries continue to sour.

Fico's comments come just one day after Slovakia joined Hungary in blocking an 18th package of sanctions against Russia, an unnamed EU official told the Kyiv Independent. Unlike Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has consistently opposed sanctions against Russia, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

"I see no reason to meet with the Ukrainian president," Fico told Slovak broadcaster STVR, stressing he has better relations with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. "My meeting with President Zelensky has no significance because he hates me," he added.

Fico's comments on a potential meeting refer to talks on improving bilateral relations between the two countries, including in areas of Ukraine's EU accession as well as additional sanctions on Russia.

"I’m the Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic, and my task is to do everything to ensure that gas prices in Slovakia do not rise because of Ukraine," Fico told STVR, in reference to concerns over Slovakia's reliance on Russian gas and energy exports that were allegedly not addressed in the 18th sanctions package.

Slovakia has requested that the adoption of the 18th package of EU sanctions against Russia be postponed until a decision is made on the consequences for the member states from RePowerEU, the European Commission's initiative to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2030 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

EU foreign policy decisions, including sanctions, require unanimous approval by all member states. A Slovak veto could continue to force concessions or delay enforcement in future rounds.

Despite the criticism, Fico added that "Ukraine's EU membership brings more advantages than disadvantages for Slovakia," but stressed that other officials, including Slovakian President Peter Pellegrini would handle discussions with top Ukrainian leadership.

Since taking office in 2023, Fico has also reversed Slovakia's previous pro-Ukraine policy, ending military aid to Kyiv and questioning the value of EU sanctions on Russia.

Zelensky has not responded to Fico's claims.

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Unlike Ukraine-skeptic Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Slovakia has not previously attempted to block EU sanctions.

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