India, the world’s biggest edible-oil importer, bought a 10-month high of about 1.5 million tons of vegetable oil in July, up roughly a third from June, as refiners restocked for the August-to-November festival season.

The jump was led by palm oil, up by half, and soybean oil, up about a third, data compiled by UkrAgroConsult. Sunflower oil rose just 4%, the weakest of the three, and India buys most of it from Ukraine and Russia, the world’s leading exporters.

Now the sunflower supply is the one going into reverse. India’s sunflower-oil imports are set to fall in August to their lowest since February, with about 150,000 tons of cargo delayed at Black Sea ports and buyers in the south switching to soybean, four traders told Reuters.

The switch is only partly about the war. Soybean and palm oil are cheap, and India’s own mills are pressing less oil from a smaller domestic harvest, leaving refiners leaning on imports, Rajesh Patel told OFI. The GGN Research partner expects soybean oil imports to top 500,000 tons a month into the autumn.

Russia’s strikes close Ukraine’s window

Ukraine is in no position to capture that demand. Russian strikes on Chornomorsk in mid-July forced Kernel, its largest exporter, to halt its terminals there, and the country’s farmers’ union reckons the summer attacks have cost a third of its capacity to ship grain by sea.

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Russia’s port strikes leave Ukraine’s grain with almost nowhere else to go

Vegetable oil and meal earn more than 15% of Ukraine’s foreign currency, among its largest sources of the hard cash that funds the war, the industry association Ukroliyaprom has said.

The squeeze runs through geography Ukraine cannot change: almost all its farm exports leave by sea, through a handful of Odesa ports now under regular fire, with no land route at anything near the scale.

Kyiv now expects to export barely half the harvest it had planned to sell abroad this season, and is arranging emergency loans so farmers can plant the next crop. Since the start of August, grain leaving by rail has dropped by more than three-quarters year-on-year, according to Ukrzaliznytsia data.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on July 6 that his administration will impose an additional 10% tariff on countries aligning themselves with what he described as the BRICS group's "anti-American policy."

"There will be no exceptions to this policy," Trump wrote on the social network Truth Social.

The announcement coincided with the BRICS summit in Brazil, where member states, including Russia, China, and India, adopted a declaration condemning strikes on Iran and Israel's operations in Gaza.

The document did not explicitly name the U.S. but criticized actions perceived as destabilizing. On June 21, the country carried out strikes on three major Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.

Trump's latest trade threat escalates tensions with the BRICS group, which has increasingly sought to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and shift toward a multipolar world order.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, described the summit as the start of a new "Global South" era, highlighting the group's aim to reshape the global order.

Though Russian President Vladimir Putin said in October 2024 that there are no immediate plans to create a BRICS currency, he highlighted the group's goal of financial sovereignty.

In January, Trump warned of 100% tariffs on BRICS members if they attempt to adopt a new or existing currency to replace the U.S. dollar in international trade.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov attended the BRICS summit in person, while Putin participated via video due to an outstanding International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant. Brazil, the summit's host, is an ICC member and obligated to arrest Putin if he enters the country.

The declaration also condemned incidents on Russian railway infrastructure and called for a negotiated settlement in the war against Ukraine. However, it avoided urging Russia to halt its full-scale invasion.

BRICS expanded in 2024, admitting Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates as new members. In October 2024, Putin hosted a BRICS forum in Kazan, attended by 36 world leaders.

Russian airports cancel nearly 300 flights amid drone attacks on Russia

Rosaviatsia reported on the evening of July 6 that 287 flights had been grounded across three major airports: Moscow’s Sheremetyevo, St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo, and Strigino Airport in Nizhny Novgorod.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova