Ukrainian forces are making slow but tactically meaningful gains near Velyka Novosilka that could eventually threaten Russian supply lines in the south, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 25 October. The push has already pulled Russian naval infantry and tank units away from offensives elsewhere, according to a Ukrainian military observer ISW cites. The same observer cautions that the advance has slowed.

Russia keeps grinding toward Donbas's last big free cities, yet Ukraine has liberated more land than Russia captured since the start of fall. Each elite unit Moscow sends to plug a gap in the south is one it cannot throw at those cities.

Three villages along the Mokri Yaly River

Ukrainian units apparently pushed Russian troops out of Perebudova, Komar, and Fedorivka, Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets reported. He described weeks of intense fighting in the villages. Russian infantry still holds several houses on Perebudova's northeastern edge, he said.

Southwest of Vesele, Ukrainian troops came within 3.1 km of Skudne. Between 12 and 24 October, they advanced 1.5–2 km on average and up to 3.3 km in places, Mashovets wrote. ISW assessed that Ukraine likely pushed Russian forces from a salient northwest of the Fedorivka–Burlatske line. Komar, north of Velyka Novosilka, has long anchored Russian defenses on the road south.

Russia's marines defend instead of attacking

Persistent Ukrainian counterattacks forced Russia to send elements of its 120th Naval Infantry Division (Baltic Fleet) and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet) to defend near Oleksandrivka instead of attacking at Huliaipole, Mashovets wrote. The move "was clearly unplanned and caused precisely by the Ukrainian offensive," he said.

Russia's naval infantry is relatively elite, and Moscow usually sends it to priority sectors, ISW noted. These units fought near Dobropillia before moving south in March, ISW said at the time, when Ukraine's counterattacks were already burning Russian reserves.

Russia also moved part of its 90th Tank Division into the sector, though it was apparently meant to reinforce the push toward Druzhkivka. "Instead, only some of its units appeared there, and a larger part ended up" defending in the south, Mashovets said. ISW has tracked the division's elements in several directions, including near Sumy as recently as September.

A road junction behind Russia's push on Orikhiv

Velyka Novosilka sits at a road junction that supports Russia's drive west from Huliaipole to envelop Orikhiv from two sides. Further Ukrainian advances would threaten the rear of those Russian forces, ISW assessed. Mashovets called the Huliaipole–Velyka Novosilka road an important supply route for Russia's 36th and 5th armies as early as July, ISW reported. Ukraine has counterattacked in this direction since early February, contesting Russia's initiative across the front, ISW added.

Russian attacks near Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole on 24 and 25 October made no confirmed advances, ISW said. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger acknowledged that Russia's advance toward Orikhiv has slowed. Russia is preparing to resume mechanized assaults in the south, Ukrainian military officials warned last week.

Mashovets was cautious about what comes next. Ukraine's advance has slowed to a minimum, and its units will likely have to pause or regroup because their forces are limited, he wrote. He also noted Russian positions southwest of Filiia, near Novopavlivka, which ISW read as a recent Russian advance there.

If Ukrainian troops cross the Huliaipole–Velyka Novosilka road in force, Russia would have to turn part of its 5th Army from facing west to facing north, Mashovets wrote.

Russian forces are preparing to resume mechanized assaults in southern Ukraine after a pause of several months and are moving armored vehicles toward areas where they plan to launch offensives, Anastasiia Shevchenko, deputy spokesperson for the Southern Forces Grouping, told Ukrinform on 22 October. The Huliaipole axis remains the hottest in the Southern grouping’s zone, with 10 to 20 combat engagements reported on an average day, she said.

On the Huliaipole axis, one of Russia’s largest force groupings is fighting Ukrainian forces, comprising units from several Russian combined-arms armies, the spokesperson says. Over the past week, as the weather worsened, Russian forces began local assaults there with infantry, motorcycles, and armored vehicles, seeking to break through toward Zaporizhzhia and blockade the city, Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps reported, adding that the area is one of Russia’s key priorities in southern Ukraine. Russia has used fog this way before: last November, Russian troops moved under its cover to avoid detection by Ukrainian drones as they advanced on Huliaipole, the Institute for the Study of War assessed.

Russian forces have abandoned large-scale assaults across a broad front and are attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian positions in small groups. They periodically use motorcycles and quad bikes for assaults, Shevchenko said, adding that these vehicles are fast and maneuverable.

However, Russian forces should not expect to advance unimpeded, the spokesperson noted. Ukrainian units control Russian supply routes and systematically detect and strike Russian personnel and equipment while they are still moving toward their launch positions, she added.

“Specifically, speaking in numbers, since the beginning of October alone, units of the Southern Forces Grouping (Forces) have destroyed more than 3,000 occupiers and 1,300 pieces of weapons and military equipment. Thus, the enemy is suffering significant losses in the operational zone of the Southern Forces Grouping (Forces),” the spokesperson concluded.

Ukrainian drones disrupt Russian logistics

Russian forces had stopped using military vehicles because Ukraine’s unmanned systems forces controlled their logistics, Shevchenko said in comments to Ukrinform on 16 September. Ukrainian drones spotted Russian troops and equipment in time and struck them mostly on their routes of advance, she said.

Ukrainian air strikes destroyed bridges near Polohy in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, complicating Russian supply operations along the Huliaipole axis, Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps reported on 21 September. Russian forces had used these bridges to move personnel, heavy equipment, and ammunition for their offensive toward Orikhiv. Disruptions to logistics have forced Russian units to rely more on motorcycles, which are more vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, the corps said.

Russian forces are also expected to use fog and rain as cover for assaults, Mykola Zinko, deputy commander of the unmanned systems battalion of the 5th Assault Brigade, said on 19 October. Russia has brought up reserves, and its heavy equipment will move out under the fog, he said.

Ukraine’s presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov said SpaceX had imposed a 100 mph (160 km/h) speed limit on its military Starshield service overnight into 14 October, disrupting several missions without warning Ukraine’s defense forces.

Ukraine’s forces use Starlink-connected drones to strike Russian positions and logistics, including targets behind the front line. Unlike earlier restrictions introduced at Kyiv’s request to stop Russian forces from exploiting Starlink, the latest change reportedly targets the military Starshield service and was imposed without warning Ukraine’s military.

What the new restriction covers

Beskrestnov wrote that the restriction applies to the “military package” of Starshield services. He said the move “obviously cannot be a coincidence” and was connected with the “current political situation,” but did not explain what he meant.

Activist Serhii Sternenko, a former adviser to Ukraine’s defense minister, reported that connections began disappearing at speeds above 160 km/h. He suggested SpaceX had acted at the Trump administration’s request but provided no evidence. Starlink does not work inside Russia, and the drones hitting Russia’s oil industry use other means of communication, Reuters noted. Sternenko added that the ordinary satellite terminals were still working.

Later on 14 October, Sternenko wrote that, according to military reports, restrictions had been tightened further, with connections starting to drop at 60–70 km/h. Beskrestnov later warned that the restriction also hits Starlink-linked interceptor drones, which he called Ukraine’s most effective current defense against jet-powered Shaheds.

Front-line units report dropped connections

Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Reaction Corps confirmed the disruptions in a statement to Reuters. The corps’ press service told Novynarnia that its units on the Huliaipole front began experiencing problems overnight. The corps said the change affected drones controlled through Starlink in flight and concerned Starshield’s data-transmission speed, which it said had previously been unrestricted.

The corps said connections could disappear for 10–20 seconds at movement speeds of 110–120 km/h, complicating drone control. Flying slower creates its own risk, it said, because “slower targets become more vulnerable to being hit by the enemy.”

Some high-speed drones, particularly mid-range strike models, must reach high speed quickly, the corps said. An unstable connection “will make it impossible to launch such aircraft or use them as intended.” Since the start of the day, one unmanned systems unit on the Huliaipole front had to cancel some missions because of connection problems, the corps said.

Earlier limits came at Kyiv’s request

In late January, SpaceX began restricting Starlink in Ukraine at Kyiv’s request after Russian forces started mounting terminals on strike drones. After Russian drones struck a passenger train in Kharkiv Oblast on 27 January, Beskrestnov, then an adviser to the defense minister, suggested one of them may have been controlled via Starlink. In early February, Ukraine introduced a whitelist under which only registered terminals could continue operating. Beskrestnov called the earlier countermeasures “temporary” and “emergency.”

SpaceX had not publicly commented on the restriction, and Ukraine’s Defense Ministry was looking into its cause, Radio Svoboda reported. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski asked Elon Musk on X whether he was “playing politics with your products again,” adding: “As your European customers, we are watching you.”