Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, Ukrainian military intelligence's (HUR) deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August.

Skibitskyi said another mobilization could follow Russia’s September parliamentary elections. Depending on its scale, that call-up could produce a strike force by February 2027. Skibitskyi based the February estimate on Russia’s 2022 mobilization. He said some personnel reached the front in December 2022, while combat-ready units arrived in January 2023.

Earlier warnings identified a northern route

The February estimate follows Ukrainian warnings about possible attacks across the northern border. In May, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv.

Syrskyi called an attack from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow’s most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus. Its purpose, he said, would be to draw Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.

Russia has also struggled to prepare other major campaigns as Ukraine targeted the forces and systems needed to carry them out. ISW assessed that Ukrainian drones likely disrupted preparations for a spring–summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast, while a planned Russian naval-drone campaign reportedly stalled after Starlink access was blocked.

Ukrainian intelligence says Russia lacks the manpower

Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization. HUR estimates Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July. The shortfall reached 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July, meaning monthly contracts no longer replaced battlefield losses.

The agency says Russia’s operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine. Moscow also lacks enough personnel to expand brigades into divisions, while recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota.

CSIS estimated in January that Russia had suffered losses unmatched by any major state since World War II while advancing extremely slowly.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, said on July 5 that he had visited the front line in Kharkiv Oblast, warning of a growing threat of renewed Russian offensives in northeastern Ukraine.

According to Syrskyi, Russian troops are ramping up attacks in the sector using large numbers of troops. Over the past week, Ukrainian troops have repelled more than 60 Russian assaults in the area, with "about a dozen battles continuing to rage every day," Syrskyi said.

"Russian forces are trying to overwhelm us with quantity, but we must be vigilant and apply effective tactical and technological solutions to prevent the invaders from advancing," he said in a Telegram post.

Syrskyi said he had reviewed battlefield situation in the area, identifying unit needs, and issuing updated tactical orders.

Syrskyi said he was coordinating closely with Joint Forces Commander Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi.

Kharkiv Oblast, located in northeastern Ukraine, borders Russia and includes the country's second-largest city. It has been a frequent target of Russian assaults and missile attacks since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Since Ukraine's successful counteroffensive in the northeast in the fall of 2022, Russia has occupied less than 5% of Kharkiv Oblast, along the region's eastern edge.

In spring 2024, Russian forces opened a new front in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, near the town of Vovchansk, but were pushed back by Ukrainian troops.

The Ukrainian battlefield monitoring platform DeepState reported on July 4 that Russian forces had advanced up to 3 kilometers (1.86 miles) into Kharkiv Oblast near the border village of Milove, opening yet another front in the northeast.

On July 4, Pavlo Shamshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine's operational-tactical group "Kharkiv," said that the number of Russian assault operations in the sector had sharply increased.

Fighting remains intense near the town of Vovchansk and surrounding villages. Shamshin said Russian troops are advancing in small groups of three to 10 soldiers, relying on drone support.

Andrii Pomahaibus, chief of staff of Ukraine's 13th National Guard Khartiia Brigade, said in May that Russia had been massing forces near the border, possibly preparing for a new offensive in the sector.

Despite repeated calls from Ukraine, the U.S., and European leaders for an unconditional ceasefire, Russia has continued ground attacks along the front and long-range missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on July 1 that he had ordered a ban on the concentration of troops and equipment at training facilities to better protect against Russian missile attacks.

"My categorical order is to ensure and increase the safety of service members at training centers and training grounds," Syrskyi said on social media after listening to reports on the implementation of safety measures.

"The concentration of personnel and military equipment, as well as the placement of service members in tent camps, is prohibited!"

The command follows a string of Russian missile attacks against Ukrainian military training facilities that have resulted in a number of killed and injured service members.

Deadly strikes deep inside the Ukrainian rear have sparked a public backlash and increased scrutiny aimed at the military command.

Former Ground Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapatyi promised to address the issue, but resigned after another attack against a shooting range in Sumy Oblast on May 20, which killed six soldiers and injured a dozen more.

Syrskyi said that new shelters and protective structures are being constructed at training facilities.

"I emphasized the mandatory compliance with shelter requirements at training centers and ranges, as well as the proper and timely notification of air raid alerts."

In a most recently reported case, a Russian missile attack killed three soldiers and injured 14 at the training ground of a Ukrainian mechanized brigade on June 22.

Ukrainian forces push Russian army away from Sumy, General Staff says

Ukrainian troops advanced near the village of Oleksiivka and liberated the village of Andriivka, the statement read.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

Pokrovsk remains the "hottest spot" along Ukraine's front lines, with Russia concentrating its largest group of personnel in that direction — a force numbering 111,000 troops, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on June 27.

Russia has for months focused its offensive efforts on the embattled town of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast and has recently been escalating attempts to break through to neighboring Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a region that has not yet seen combat. Ukraine denied reports that Russian forces breached the regional border in May and June.

In May, Syrskyi reported that Ukraine had stabilized the situation in Pokrovsk.

After a working visit to the Pokrovsk sector, Syrskyi on June 27 said that the city is still "the hottest spot along the entire 1,200-kilometer front line" with nearly 50 combat clashes recorded per day. It's also where Russia has concentrated the bulk of its forces in Ukraine.

Russia has amassed "about 111,000 personnel" in the Pokrovsk sector, Syrskyi said, but Ukrainian forces are holding the line.

"The enemy continues to try to break through to the administrative border of Donetsk Oblast ... Russian sabotage and assault groups were particularly active here two weeks ago," Syrskyi said.

"But they were all destroyed or neutralized, and the remnants were pushed back from the administrative border. The situation is under control."

Russia is attempting to break into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast not only for operational reasons, but also for performative ones, Syrskyi said.

"To achieve a psychological effect: to put the infamous 'foot of the Russian soldier' there, plant a flag, and trumpet another pseudo-'victory.'"

Syrskyi's comments echo recent remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who claimed in a propaganda-heavy speech on June 20 that "wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps is Russian land." President Volodymyr Zelensky fired back the next day, promising "Ukrainian drones for the foot of every Russian soldier."

While Putin claimed on June 27 that Moscow is "ready" for a third round of peace talks with Kyiv, the Kremlin has sent no signal that it's ready to abandon its maximalist ambitions in Ukraine.

Russia's so-called "peace memorandum" demands that Ukraine recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, as well as Kherson, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Luhansk oblasts — none of which are fully under Moscow's control.

Zelensky's Deputy Chief of Staff Pavlo Palisa said on June 6 that Russia aims to occupy all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River and advance toward Odesa and Mykolaiv in a broader plan to sever Ukraine's access to the Black Sea amid a renewed summer offensive.

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike 4 fighter jets in Russia

Key developments on June 27: * Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike 4 fighter jets in Russia * North Korea deployed 20% of Kim’s elite ‘personal reserve’ to fight against Ukraine in Russia, Umerov says * Pro-Palestinian activists reportedly destroy military equipment intended for Ukraine * Zelensky signs decree to synchronize Russia sanctions

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

Ukraine has halted Russia's advance in Sumy Oblast, stabilizing the front line and blunting the momentum of Moscow's summer offensive, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on June 26.

"Based on the results of May and June, we can say that this year's wave of the enemy's summer offensive from Russian territory is faltering," Syrskyi said, reporting that Russian troops in the northeastern border region had been stopped.

Moscow launched its new summer campaign in May, aiming to push deeper into Ukraine's northeast and eastern regions, disregarding Kyiv's calls for an unconditional ceasefire.

Russian forces had made modest gains, occupying around 449 square kilometers (173 square miles) in May, the highest monthly total in 2025, according to the open-source intelligence group DeepState.

In Sumy Oblast, however, the line of contact has stabilized. Syrskyi said Ukrainian troops are not only defending but also reclaiming ground using active defense tactics.

"In certain areas, our units are liberating Ukrainian territory," he said.

Syrskyi said Ukrainian operations in Russia's Glushkovsky district had forced Moscow to shift elite units, including Airborne Forces and Marine Corps brigades, into defensive positions, undermining their offensive capabilities in Sumy.

"In the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions, we have once again pinned down about 50,000 Russian Armed Forces personnel," Syrskyi said. He provided no further details about how Ukraine had achieved this.

Ukraine launched a cross-border offensive into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024, initially capturing 1,300 square kilometers before losing most of that territory in a Russian counterattack earlier this year.

Russian officials declared complete control over the region on April 26, though the claim was later disputed by Kyiv and contradicted by Russia's own local authorities.

Russia's broader offensive aims to seize the remaining administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and carve out a buffer zone along the Sumy and Kharkiv frontiers.

Sumy Oblast, which borders Russia to the east, remains a strategic region. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, it has faced near-daily attacks.

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In a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials last week issued separate warnings about the state of the country’s economy. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted. Almost immediately, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 20 dismissed the concerns, clai

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The Ukrainian military leadership aims to overhaul the draft office system amid numerous reports of abuses since the start of Russia's invasion in 2022, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

To "clean up the system", 136 officers and 325 other service members from the draft offices involved in misconduct were transferred to other positions in the army, Syrskyi said at a briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Mobilization of men through the draft offices remains the main source of manpower for the Ukrainian army which defends against Russia's much more numerous forces in a war of attrition, Syrskyi added.

Draft offices are often accused, at times justly, of forced conscription without compliance with fundamental civil rights and ill-treatment of conscripts in recruitment centers. These reports are used by Russian propaganda to help escalate social tensions in Ukraine and further damage Ukraine's recruitment efforts.

"Cases of forced detention of citizens (by the draft officers) are absolutely unacceptable," Syrskyi said during the briefing.

Ukrainian leadership expects the newly appointed commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov, to "overcome problematic issues," Syrskyi added.

Shapovalov's appointment on June 17 followed the resignation of Mykhailo Drapatyi earlier this month after a Russian missile strike killed at least 12 Ukrainian soldiers at a training ground in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Inspections are underway in the draft centers to send draft officers without battlefield experience to the front, replacing them with soldiers wounded in battles, Syrskyi said.

Draft offices should fulfill their duties and "disallow these shameful cases that sometimes occur," according to Syrskyi.

"Corrupt officials and violators of the law in the mobilization process must be exposed. All necessary measures should be taken against such violators," Syrskyi added.

Ukraine is failing the mobilization test

Ukrainian society largely does not want to mobilize. Nearly 6 million Ukrainian men have not updated their information in military enlistment centers, and most of them likely don’t have grounds for a deferment or exemption. Forced mobilization of these men is categorically opposed by society. Rosy-cheeked aunts gather and shout

The Kyiv IndependentIllia Krotenko

Ukraine is downing approximately 82% of Russian Shahed-type drones during Russian massive aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities despite a serious shortage of surface-to-air missiles, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

Ukraine needs to have many times more surface-to-air missiles and anti-aircraft missile systems to ensure reliable defense of cities and critical infrastructure facilities, Syrskyi said at a briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Russian attacks against Ukraine have surged in May and June as Moscow has launched several record-breaking mass strikes against Kyiv and other cities. The latest attack on June 17, primarily targeting the capital, killed 30 people and injured over 170.

"Since we have to save anti-aircraft guided missiles, mobile fire groups are the priority for defending from the Shaheds," Syrskyi said.

Despite Russia's changing tactics of massive air attacks, mobile fire groups account for the largest share of destroyed drones. The fire groups' effectiveness is up to 40%, according to Syrskyi.

Aviation is used almost every night to repel Russian air attacks, featuring the Defense Forces' helicopter crews and fighter aircraft of the Air Force, which includes U.S.-made F-16 and French Mirage-2000 aircraft.

"One promising area in countering Shaheds is the use of light aircraft," Syrskyi said, adding that "there are new projects thanks to financial and material assistance from our foreign partners."

"We are receiving modern light aircraft, which have modern weapons and navigation, which will increase the effectiveness in countering Russian strike drones."

Syrskyi stressed that "cooperation with partners, primarily Canadian ones, enables us to obtain modern surveillance and targeting systems that enhance the combat capabilities of our helicopters."

Regular Air Force reports show that the majority of Russian drones are intercepted during overnight attacks, some by air defenses and others by electronic warfare systems. However, these reports do not always clarify how many of the intercepted drones were actual attack drones and which were only decoys launched to overwhelm air defenses.

Ukraine works to develop other means of protection against Russian air raids in the non-front-line oblasts as it scales up the use of interceptor drones.

Syrskyi said that over five types of interceptor drones have been cleared for use in the army, and new units are being formed and taught to operate them. Some of these Air Force units have already downed dozens of Russian Shaheds, according to Syrskyi.

The effective use of interceptor drones is hindered by the lack of tactical radar systems in Ukraine, such as Israel-made radars by RADA Electronic Industries and their analogues.

Syrskyi said the Ukrainian army needs hundreds of tactical radar systems instead of the few currently in service for radar reconnaissance, which is key to the use of interceptor drones.

Russia pulls its scientists out of Iranian nuclear plant, as Israeli strikes threaten decades of collaboration

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Russian forces are attempting to advance along almost the entire front in eastern Ukraine while trying to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Sumy Oblast, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

The comments come as Moscow launched a new summer offensive against Ukraine, disregarding calls by Kyiv and its Western partners for an unconditional ceasefire.

The offensive's goal is to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the east, and create a buffer zone in the border areas of the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, Syrskyi said at a meeting attended by the Kyiv Independent.

As of mid-June, Ukrainian defenders are fighting close to 695,000 Russian troops in Ukraine across a 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) front, the commander said, adding that Moscow recruited about 440,000 contract soldiers this year.

According to the open-source intelligence group DeepState, Russian forces occupied approximately 449 square kilometers (173 square miles) in May, the highest monthly figure this year.

Ukraine has managed to stop the Russian advance in Sumy Oblast at the moment, Syrskyi noted. "The situation there has been stabilized... we have recaptured Andriivka, and advanced between 200 and 700 meters in Yunakivka in a week," he said.

Russian forces are also attempting to fully oust Ukrainian troops from Russia's home territory in the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.

"We control about 90 square kilometers (35 square miles) in the Glushkovsky district of Russia's Kursk Oblast," Syrskyi said.

Ukraine launched the cross-border offensive into Kursk Oblast — bordering Ukraine's Sumy Oblast — last August, initially seizing 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles) but losing the vast majority of this territory in a Russian counteroffensive earlier this year.

Moscow initially declared to have fully liberated the region on April 26, but this claim was rejected by Ukraine and later disputed by Russian officials themselves.

Kyiv has said the incursion was meant to preempt a Russian offensive into Sumy Oblast and force Russia to redirect troops fighting in Donetsk Oblast.

Syrskyi stressed that at one point, the Kursk operation drew in almost 63,000 Russian soldiers, which, in addition to North Korean soldiers, amounted to about 70,000 troops deployed in the region.

"In April 2025, Russian units – and this, I remind you once again, is about 60 thousand people... were tasked with moving to new sectors and reinforcing Russian assault groups in the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Lyman, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson directions," Syrskyi said.

"But our actions in the Glushkovsky district of Russia's Kursk Oblast thwarted these plans." At the moment, about 10,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in the Glushkovsky district, the commander added.

Syrskyi also said Russian assault units approached the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but were thrown back.

"As for our plans and intentions. Of course, we will not simply remain in a blind defense... Therefore, we combine defensive actions with active defense and active offensive operations," Syrskyi said.

For this purpose, the Ukrainian military is scaling up its assault units, which were created at the beginning of the Kursk operation and are currently deployed in all areas of the front, he added.

Russia pulls its scientists out of Iranian nuclear plant, as Israeli strikes threaten decades of collaboration

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The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Efforts are underway to rapidly expand Ukraine's ability to counter Russian drone attacks, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on June 14.

In a statement shared on Telegram, Syrskyi said he held a meeting focused on strengthening defenses against Russian strike drones, particularly Iranian-designed Shahed drones used by Russian forces to target Ukrainian cities.

"Task number one is scaling up the systems that already work effectively," Syrskyi said. "First and foremost, that means increasing the number of drone interceptors."

Russia has been escalating drone attacks against Ukraine over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) per night.

Syrskyi emphasized the need for a comprehensive approach that incorporates all available capabilities. "(Russia) is constantly modifying the characteristics of its Shaheds and changing their tactics," he said.

Ukrainian officials discussed ways to improve early detection of incoming drones and ensure their timely destruction. Syrskyi said he had set clear priorities and tasked military leaders accordingly.

Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian cities with waves of attack drones, often striking energy infrastructure and residential buildings overnight. Ukraine's defense forces use a mix of electronic warfare, air defense systems, and drone-on-drone interception to repel the assaults.

Drones have become one of the defining tools of the full-scale war, used extensively by both Ukraine and Russia for surveillance, long-range strikes, and tactical battlefield advantage. In recent weeks, Russia has intensified its drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

Earlier on June 9, Ukraine's Air Force said it intercepted 479 drones and missiles during one of the largest attacks since the start of the war. Russia launched 499 weapons overnight, including 479 Shahed-type drones and multiple ballistic and cruise missiles.