Shares in Russia’s second-largest bank VTB fell to an all-time intraday low of just under 50 rubles ($0.60) on 26 August, RBC’s exchange data showed. That was more than 40% below the 87-ruble (about $1) price set for a share sale partly intended to finance its Wildberries partnership. At that price, offering participants would pay about 75% more than investors buying the same shares on the stock market.

VTB’s drop came amid a wider decline in Russian stocks. Kommersant’s market report said analysts also linked the fall to VTB’s own large new share issue.

Share issue could cut existing stakes by one-third

Under the bank’s offering plan, VTB could issue almost one new share for every two already in circulation. If VTB sold the full amount, an existing shareholder who bought no new shares would see their ownership stake fall by about one-third. VTB planned to finish the sale and close its Wildberries deal by 1 September.

The bank expected to raise 300–400 billion rubles ($3.6–$4.7 billion). VTB said it had assembled a group of large investors willing to participate but would not disclose who they were. Those investors would receive the same class of shares traded on the Moscow Exchange, but at the price fixed by VTB.

VTB described the partnership primarily as a route into Wildberries’ 80 million users—more than twice the bank’s own customer base. VTB would initially acquire a 5% stake in Wildberries’ banking arm, with the option to increase its holding later.

Reuters described both companies—Wildberries and rival Ozon—as central to Moscow’s plans to use online commerce as an engine of economic growth.

VTB held its price as shares fell

On 9 July, VTB kept its price even after the stock had fallen well below the offering price. The bank said its large, long-term investors were willing to look past short-term price swings.

On 16 July, VTB hit another low as investors prepared for its dividend cutoff and the new share issue. The first drone strikes on Wildberries warehouses followed two days later.

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VTB’s first-half results showed that its profit fell by one-fifth from a year earlier. In the second quarter, the bank set aside 28% more for troubled loans while its profit fell by one-third.

After the attacks, Moscow considered supporting Wildberries and its sellers, with VTB expected to play a central role. VTB shares fell 2.5% on 28 July amid uncertainty over the partnership. “If we receive such a request, we will, of course, be open to various forms of lending support,” VTB’s first deputy CEO Dmitry Pyanov told Reuters.

Ukrainian drones struck the Wildberries logistics hub in the Russian town of Kotovsk for the second time in six weeks, Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ reported. A fire took hold across most of the 108,000-square-meter complex, and by late morning, the regional governor said the warehouse was destroyed. Wildberries, Russia's biggest online store, had restarted the site after a July strike. The facility is located in Tambov Oblast, about 420 km from the war zone in Ukraine.

The second fire at the same hub

Exilenova+ reported the strike at 01:24, saying Ukraine's Defense Forces had hit the site again and that a fire was burning. Later, the channel continued to share photos and videos from Kotovsk. The Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported that local residents described the warehouse as attacked and alight. Witnesses counted at least 10 explosions in 40 minutes. Wildberries said a drone attack damaged its logistics facility in the oblast and started a fire, and that the site had stopped accepting new deliveries.

What the governor said, and what changed by morning

Tambov Oblast governor Yevgeny Pervyshov confirmed the attack and put the burning area at more than 100,000 square meters. He claimed air defenses and mobile fire groups of a regional volunteer reserve unit destroyed 16 drones. He initially reported one Wildberries employee hurt, with concussion from a blast wave, and said a downed Ukrainian drone set a house on fire in a dacha settlement.

By 11:17, Pervyshov's account had changed. Fire had destroyed the warehouse completely, and two people were injured, he said. Three strike drones had reached the building, the official stated. He closed by again urging men in the oblast to join the defense of its skies. Earlier, Kotovsk's mayor asked residents not to leave their homes for two days, citing the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning from the burning warehouse.

Russia's Defense Ministry separately claimed it destroyed 426 drones overnight across the country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian forces hit 16 targets in Russia over the past day, naming oil facilities — "the Russian oil wallet that finances the war" — along with airfields, a missile unit, a military plant, and Russian logistics. War has to return to where it came from, he said.

Almost no storage left in central Russia

The Kotovsk hub opened in 2025 as one of Wildberries' key logistics sites for central Russia, built to hold up to 54 million items at full capacity. Drones first hit it overnight on 18 July, when seven warehouse staff died and, by the governor's count, 25 more were hurt. The company suspended operations then, too.

By the end of July, the retailer had already lost more than a million square meters of warehouse space, Exile+ calculated, which leaves it physically almost no free capacity in the center of the country.

From one marketplace to the next

Ukrainian drones destroyed eight Wildberries warehouses in July alone, roughly 860,000 square meters or about 15.4% of the company's storage. The campaign widened to Ozon, Russia's second-largest online store, with its biggest Russian complex hit in Orenburg on 23 August, and three southern hubs struck the next night.

Independent businesses selling through M.Video, Russia’s largest electronics chain, waited months to receive customer payments for goods already sold. One seller received it only after filing a formal demand that usually precedes a lawsuit, according to a Vedomosti report.

The sellers are independent businesses using M.Video’s website as their storefront. Under M.Video’s seller contract, a customer buys from the independent business while M.Video collects the payment as the seller’s agent.

The business pays M.Video a commission for listing the product and handling payment and delivery. Until M.Video transfers the proceeds, the seller has already handed over the product but has not received the money from the sale.

Some sellers turn to legal demands

Sellers said payments for goods sold in May and June were still missing in August. One sent M.Video a formal demand on 13 August, giving the company five days to pay and waiving interest. The money arrived on 18 August.

Another business said its demand went unanswered, while its assigned manager stopped responding. It continued shipping orders until mid-July because M.Video had promised to transfer payment for its May sales.

Similar complaints had already surfaced two months earlier. M.Video told ABN that transfers were regular, but rapid growth sometimes required additional checks before funds could be released. The same report cited a business that had waited 24 working days after approving its sales statement; its previous transfer had also arrived late.

Independent sellers are taking a larger role in M.Video’s business. M.Video’s annual results show that products from these sellers accounted for one in every ten orders in 2025. According to its half-year marketplace update, turnover from these businesses quadrupled year-on-year as M.Video expanded beyond electronics. The number of products listed grew nearly sixfold.

The shift follows heavy losses in M.Video’s store-based business. M.Video’s annual results show that it lost about 64 billion rubles (about $770 million)—nearly one-fifth of its annual revenue. The chain closed hundreds of underperforming stores and opened only 11.

Ukraine has knocked out seven of the 10 largest logistics hubs run by Russia's biggest online retailer, the US-based Institute for the Study of War assessed. The strikes are part of a campaign to wear down Russia's defense industry and the dual-use supply lines that feed its war. The newest raids hit two warehouses near Moscow overnight.

Two hubs near Moscow burned overnight

On 15-16 August, Ukrainian drones struck Wildberries' single largest hub, a 250,000-square-meter depot in the Koledino Industrial Park in Podolsk, Moscow Oblast. Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported the hit, about 420 kilometers from the border.

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“One of the most massive” Ukrainian drone attacks hits Moscow Oblast: two major warehouses ablaze

Wildberries confirmed the fire and said it had to reorganize its supply chains. Moscow Oblast Governor Andrei Vorobyov acknowledged the strike, and geolocated footage showed the depot ablaze.

Drones also hit a second warehouse the same night, in Domodedovo, roughly 430 kilometers from the border. Footage showed a fire at the Severnoye Domodedovo complex.

Why the warehouses are targets

Ukrainian officials say Wildberries helps supply the Russian military, moving drone components and navigation gear. Kyiv folded the retailer into a deep-strike campaign that began in mid-July.

The company is Russia's answer to Amazon, its largest online marketplace. Its sprawling depots make broad, hard-to-defend targets.

The damage keeps growing

By early August, the strikes had destroyed at least 1.18 million square meters of Wildberries storage, about a fifth of its capacity, ISW noted. The toll has climbed since.

The losses ripple outward to independent sellers who rent space in the hubs. Many have watched their stock burn with no compensation.

Russia's economy grew 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026, the state news agency TASS reported on 12 August, citing preliminary estimates from the state statistics agency Rosstat — a figure that, if accurate, would end a slump that had opened the year with the country's first quarterly contraction since 2023.

And it comes from a state agency months after Putin dressed down his economic team in April and demanded "concrete measures" to restore growth — the print then beat the government's own economists in exactly the direction he wanted.

The quarter may have brought a real if shallow rebound, or the state's statisticians may have produced the figure the president wanted. Either way it matters, because Russia's economy is what pays for its war, and its strength sets the ceiling on how long the Kremlin can keep fighting.

Barely growing all year

Even taken straight, the rebound is thinner than it looks. The first quarter had closed 0.2% down, and across the whole first half of the year output rose just 0.6%, half of last year's pace and close to seven times slower than the wartime boom of 2023 and 2024. The quarterly figure jumped. The underlying trend barely moved.

The weakness had been building for over a year. War spending drove the 2023–24 boom and overheated the economy; to curb the resulting inflation, the central bank raised its key rate to 21%, choking lending and investment. It has cut rates since, to 14% in July, but money is still tight and inflation is rising again as Ukrainian strikes push up fuel prices.

Growth the war paid for

As The Moscow Times set out, reviewing the data and the economists reading it, most of the quarter's growth rested on one-off factors: more working days than a year earlier, a temporary oil-revenue spike during the Iran war, and a budget that lifted spending 16%, a third of it on the army and weapons. The split underneath is the tell.

Military plants kept raising output; civilian industry kept shrinking, down 3.2% from a year earlier by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF), a Russian forecasting institute, according to its estimate.

Rosstat also billed the quarter as its strongest in six, and said it had beaten the forecasts of both the economy ministry, which had projected 0.9%, and the central bank, which saw 0.8%.

Few expect it to last

Russia will "remain in a state of stagnation" for the foreseeable future, said Liam Peach of Capital Economics, citing high interest rates and the fuel crisis.

Ukraine's long-range drones are adding to the strain. Their strikes have cut Russian oil refining to its lowest level in more than two decades, draining fuel supply and pushing prices up at home, and forcing Moscow, an oil giant, to import gasoline from as far as Morocco.

Russia's economy, which defied initial sanctions and saw growth propelled by massive military spending and robust oil exports, is now showing significant signs of a downturn.

Recent economic indicators are flashing red, with manufacturing activity declining, consumer spending tightening, and inflation remaining stubbornly high, straining the national budget, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on July 4.

Russian officials are openly acknowledging the risks of a recession. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov warned last month that Russia was on the "verge of a recession," while Finance Minister Anton Siluanov described the situation as a "perfect storm." Companies, from agricultural machinery producers to furniture makers, are reducing output. The central bank announced on July 3 it would debate cutting its benchmark interest rate later this month, following a reduction in June.

While analysts suggest this economic sputtering is unlikely to immediately alter President Vladimir Putin’s war objectives—as his focus on "neutering Ukraine" overrides broader economic concerns—it exposes the limits of his war economy.

The slowdown indicates that Western sanctions, though not a knockout blow, are increasingly taking a toll. If sanctions intensify further or global oil prices fall, Russia’s economy could face more severe instability. This downturn undermines Putin's strategic bet that Russia can financially outlast Ukraine and its Western allies, suggesting Moscow may struggle to finance the war indefinitely.

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Experts warn that Russia's economic growth model, overly reliant on military spending, is unsustainable and necessitates a contraction of civilian economic capacities to free up workers for the war machine, which is not a viable long-term strategy. Putin recently dismissed suggestions that the war is stifling the economy, echoing Mark Twain by stating reports of its death "are greatly exaggerated." However, he also cautioned that a recession or stagflation "should not be allowed under any circumstances."

After a brief recession in 2022, military spending, which accounts for over 6% of gross domestic product this year (the highest since Soviet times) and approximately 40% of total government spending, had propped up Russia’s economy and blunted the impact of Western sanctions. Russia’s ability to reroute oil exports to China and Beijing’s support with electronics and machinery provided additional economic stimulus. This created an economic paradox: the most sanctioned major economy was, for a period, growing faster than many advanced economies.

However, this military spending "sugar rush" fueled runaway inflation, compelling the central bank to raise interest rates to a record 21% to try and tame it. Higher interest rates increased borrowing costs for businesses, curbing investment, expansion plans, and squeezing profits. The economic comedown has already begun.

Official data shows Russian GDP growth slowed to 1.4% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, down significantly from 4.5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index indicated Russia’s manufacturing sector contracted at its sharpest rate in over three years in June, and new car sales dropped nearly 30% year-over-year in June.

Businesses across Russia are feeling the effects, according to the WSJ. Rostselmash, the country’s largest producer of agricultural machinery, announced in May it would cut production and investment, and pull forward mandatory annual leave for its 15,000 employees due to a lack of demand. In Siberia, electricity grid operator Rosseti Sibir stated it was on the verge of bankruptcy due to high debt, halting investments and proposing tariff hikes for industrial users.

While some analysts argue the Russian banking system remains stable, others warn of increasing instability. A recent report by the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted risks from a government decision to control war-related lending at major Russian banks. The state could direct banks to offer preferential loans, potentially forcing the government to absorb losses if high interest rates prevent companies from meeting obligations.

The Moscow-based Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting also assessed in May that the risk of a protracted systemic banking crisis in 2026 was "moderate" and growing.

These economic challenges intensify pressure on the Kremlin by reducing its financial capacity to fund its war in Ukraine. The government has operated with a budget deficit throughout the war and projects this will continue for at least two more years. This fiscal strain could provide an opening for Western nations to implement more powerful sanctions.

Falling oil prices present another significant risk for Russia, as energy sales account for about a third of its budget revenues. The price of Russian crude has consistently remained below the level assumed in this year’s budget, and Russia’s oil-and-gas revenue in June fell to its lowest level since January 2023, according to Finance Ministry data.

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Iran is reportedly preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would spike global oil prices and give a significant boost to the Russian economy and its war machine in Ukraine.

Reuters reported on July 1 that Iran loaded naval mines onto vessels in the Persian Gulf last month, citing two U.S. officials, who said the preparations had been detected after Israel launched its "preemptive" attack against Iran on June 13.

Amid the conflict with Israel which has currently settled into an uneasy ceasefire, Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz as a means of deterrence.

If the Strait were mined, Iran could block one-fifth of global oil demand and spike world energy prices — a boon for Russia's oil-dependent economy.

"Any disruption to Gulf supplies would push up global crude prices. Prices for Russian crude would rise in line," John Gawthrop, Argus Eurasia Energy editor, told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia’s energy sector made up 35-40% of its budget revenues pre-full-scale invasion and is powering its war machine.

Western sanctions on Russian energy and the G7’s Russian oil price cap of $60 per barrel have hampered its profits, with Russia losing more than $150 billion over the last three years, but have yet to deal a crippling blow.

The conflict between Israel and Iran caused a spike in prices — Brent crude, the global benchmark, on June 13 jumped from $69.36 to $75 per barrel, a surge that looked like it could grant Russia's economy a reprieve.

Until the Israeli attacks, the future for Russian crude wasn’t looking so bright. Europe was planning its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector, and the G7 was pushing for a $45 price cap. Hungary and Slovakia have since blocked the sanctions package.

Prices have since settled along with the conflict and on July 2 Brent crude was $67.50, but if Iran does go ahead with mining the Strait of Hormuz, blocking one-fifth of global oil demand, another surge would follow.

This would also mean Iran blocks its own oil exports too, so it would only be a last resort from Tehran, David Fyfe, chief economist at Argus Media, a market analyst group, told the Kyiv Independent last month.

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President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 20 that Russia's economy is strong despite war and sanctions, brushing off mounting warnings from his own officials about stagnation and looming recession.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin was asked about reports that the ongoing war in Ukraine was "killing" the Russian economy.

"Rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated," he replied, quoting American writer Mark Twain.

The president claimed that Russia has outpaced global economic growth over the past two years, allegedly expanding by over 4% annually.

"Our most important task is to ensure the economy's transition to a balanced growth trajectory," Putin said. "At the same time, some specialists and experts point to the risks of stagnation and even recession. This should not be allowed under any circumstances."

The statement came just a day after Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned on that Russia's wartime economic momentum is fading fast. She said the economy is approaching the limits of its growth potential, adding that previously effective tools are now exhausted.

Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov echoed the concerns, telling a separate forum audience on June 19 that Russia is "on the verge of a transition to recession." He emphasized that recession is not inevitable and that "everything depends on our decisions."

Moscow has experienced rapid inflation and historically high interest rates amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The central bank raised rates repeatedly to combat inflation, but on June 6, it made its first cut in nearly two years, from 21% to 20%.

Putin has criticized the central bank's tight monetary policy for choking off private investment, especially in non-defense sectors.

Despite Putin's optimistic rhetoric, analysts attribute Russia's economic slowdown to sustained international sanctions, falling oil prices, rising wartime spending, and supply disruptions.

Russia's ever-mounting losses on the battlefield which recently passed the 1 million mark are also likely contrbuting to the economic turmoil as the Kremlin is having to pay people to sign up to fight rather than introduce what would be a hugely unpopular mass mobilization.

According to an analysis by economist Janis Kluge, Russia's daily bill just for sign-up bonuses is $24 million.

The ballooning bills come at a time when Russia's economy is already under huge strain from Western sanctions and falling oil and gas revenues.

"The implications for Russia are grave," energy security analyst Wojciech Jakobik wrote in an op-ed for the Kyiv Independent this week.

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Russia's wartime economic momentum is fading fast, with key resources nearly exhausted, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said, warning that the country can no longer rely on the same tools that sustained growth in the first two years of the full-scale war against Ukraine, the Moscow Times reported on June 19.

Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Nabiullina said that the Russian economy had been expanding on the back of "free resources," including labor, industrial capacity, bank capital reserves, and liquid assets from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) — all of which are now reportedly nearing depletion.

"We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," she said. "We need to understand that many of those resources have truly been exhausted."

Speaking at the same forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials "not to allow stagnation or recession" in the Russian economy under any circumstances.

"We must consistently change the structure of our economy," he said.

The comments come after Russia's ambassador to the U.K., Andrei Kelin, claimed in an interview with CNN this week that Russia is spending "only 5–7%" of its federal budget on the war. Kelin claimed that Russia can continue waging its war, saying Moscow "is winning."

According to the state statistics agency Rosstat, Russia's unemployment rate has dropped to a historic low of 2.3%. At the same time, mass emigration and large-scale wartime recruitment have created a labor shortage estimated at 2 million people. Industrial capacity utilization has surged beyond 80%, the highest in modern Russian history.

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Russia's economy is now "on the verge of a transition to recession," Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said at the same forum. Official data show that GDP growth slowed from 4.1% in late 2023 to just 1.4% in the first quarter of 2024, with the economy contracting quarter-on-quarter for the first time since 2022.

Business profits in March fell by one-third overall and dropped by half in the critical oil and gas sector. Industrial growth stagnated at 1.2% year-over-year between January and April, while civilian sectors of the economy began shrinking. Retail turnover growth slowed from 7.2% in December to just 2.4% in April.

An anonymous Russian analyst told Novaya Gazeta Europe that government technocrats are effectively telling Putin it's time to choose between "war or economy."

During its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has faced rising inflation due to record military spending, pushing the central bank to maintain high interest rates. Under government pressure, the bank cut the rate slightly from 21% to 20% earlier in June, despite concerns about weakened private investment.

Officials have scaled back key development projects and reduced shipments of metals and oil products. Early hopes for recovery in 2025, driven by talks with the U.S., have faded as inflation and sanctions weigh heavily on growth.

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The Russian economy appears to be "on the verge of a transition to recession," Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on June 19, adding that the next step will be decisive.

The comments underscore Russia's mounting economic challenges as it continues its all-out war against Ukraine.

"According to figures, we have a cooling stage (in the economy). But all our numbers are like a rearview mirror," Reshetnikov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum when asked about Russia's economic situation.

"According to current business perceptions, we are already, it seems, on the verge of a transition to a recession," the minister added. Reshetnikov clarified that recession is not inevitable and that "everything depends on our decisions."

Russia has faced soaring inflation during its invasion of Ukraine, driven by record wartime spending. This forced the central bank to set one of the highest key interest rates in decades, hurting private investments in non-defense-related sectors.

Facing government pressure, the central bank slashed the interest rate from 21% to 20% earlier this month.

Reshetnikov himself urged the central bank to cut rates in order to boost growth, aiming to achieve a 3% growth target set by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia has been forced to slash key projects across various sectors in the face of an economic slowdown, brought on in part by plummeting oil prices. Major Russian exporters have also cut down on rail shipments of metals and oil products, even beyond earlier projected reductions.

After some positive signals earlier in 2025 due to U.S. President Donald Trump's outreach to Moscow and hopes for a ceasefire, more recent reports again indicate a sharp slowdown in Russia's economic growth.

Analysts have connected this development to the central bank policies, sanctions, low oil prices, supply difficulties, and high inflation.

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