Ukrainian analysts warn that the situation on a key stretch of the Donetsk front is becoming increasingly dangerous for two cities central to Ukraine's defense. The eastern flank of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration is taking on an increasingly threatening character, and earlier stabilization measures are clearly not working, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said.

The two cities anchor the line that has held Russia back for over a decade. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk form part of the so-called fortress belt, the line of Ukrainian fortifications that has restrained the Russian advance since 2014. The agglomeration serves as the most important bastion and logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the east. A threat to it is a threat to the backbone of Ukraine's defense in Donbas.

Russia is 12 to 13 km away

Kovalenko laid out how close Russian forces have come. Their forward positions are 12-13 kilometers from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. He warned that if Russia's pace does not slow, the first infiltrations into both cities could come by December 2026.

The advance is measured in ground lost. The problem on the eastern flank runs about 30 kilometers, where Russia's 3rd Combined Arms Army operates.

"Only in the third week of August, Russian forces captured 21 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in this section of the frontline," the expert said.

Russia uses the terrain of the "Cretaceous Flora" reserve, its hilly micro-relief rather than open steppe, to advance, absorbing not just square kilometers into pockets but villages and settlements.

The flank threatens neighboring sectors

The deterioration is spreading pressure sideways. The advance creates pressure from the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets on the zone of the 3rd Army Corps, which had stabilized the Lyman direction and pinned Russian forces near Yampil, Kovalenko believes. The former Siverskyi direction saw the fastest rate of territorial loss of any sector in 2025, slowed in April and May 2026, but the 3rd Combined Arms Army's advance has not yet been stopped.

The cumulative loss is large. After losing more than 500 square kilometers over a year, the unstable flank, sagging since June 2025, is becoming a problem for other directions, looming over or pressuring them.

Kovalenko argued the sector has gone months without attention while threatening both the main agglomeration and the successfully held directions around it.

Analysts urge reinforcement before it is too late

Kovalenko proposed a specific fix. The sector must be reinforced as soon as possible, he said, suggesting that the nearest resource, Andrii Biletsky's 3rd Army Corps, often described as one of the most capable formations in Ukraine's forces, be used at least to relieve both banks of the Siverskyi Donets.

"Once infiltrations into Sloviansk and Kramatorsk begin, reinforcing garrisons and landing intelligence-directorate troops will not solve the problem but only delay the inevitable," he warned.

A second analyst gave a similar warning. Yurii Butusov, a drone company commander in the National Guard's "Khartia" corps, said that if Ukraine's forces retreat from there, Russia gains tactical advantages and Sloviansk-Kramatorsk is gradually lost, ultimately leading to the loss of the Donbas.

He also said that only Biletskyi can take responsibility for this battle.

"Only orderly command and organization at the front now will allow us to turn the course of a battle that is so far not going in our favor," Butusov said.

Iran is using the war in Ukraine to make its attack drones deadlier. Iran has been refining its Shahed-107 kamikaze drones based on the experience of the war in Ukraine, military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said.

Ukraine has become the testing ground where Iran improves the weapons, and Russia then fires at it. The Shahed-107's warheads have received additional shrapnel elements, and a detailed aerodynamic study shows a significant improvement in the drone's structure, Kovalenko explains.

The Shahed is being upgraded from combat experience

Kovalenko said the modifications come directly from how the drones perform in Ukraine. The warheads now carry extra fragmentation elements, increasing their lethality against people and soft targets, and the airframe's aerodynamics have been reworked.

A new loitering munition may be coming

Kovalenko also warned about a weapon already appearing over Ukraine. Karar drones have recently begun reaching Ukraine, not yet on a large scale, but enough to cause some confusion in identifying the weapon. He said he would not be surprised if they appear more widely soon.

He described its specifications.

"The Karar is a loitering munition, more a flying bomb than a drone by classification, equipped with a DLE 111 gasoline engine, with a range of about 300 kilometers on a 28-liter tank and a 15-kilogram warhead," Kovalenko said.

He called it an extremely cheap means of terror for the middle rear zone.

The warning is about the rear

Kovalenko's concern is where such a weapon reaches. A cheap loitering munition with a 300-kilometer range could strike areas well behind the front that have been relatively safe, extending the threat deeper into Ukraine.

Kovalenko framed the weapon's arrival in stark terms, saying that when it appears, people should simply accept what will happen, and declining even to name the region where he expects it to appear. That is his characterization: a single analyst's warning about a weapon whose wider use he anticipates but that has not yet reached scale. EP cannot independently verify Karar's specifications or its deployment.