Ravil Dzhamally fled when Russian forces occupied his farm in Kherson Oblast, then returned after liberation to clear mines and plant again. Now, tons of his grain lie unsold in plastic sleeves across his fields because Russian attacks have nearly halted exports through Odesa, Bloomberg reported on 20 August.
Odesa’s Black Sea ports handle almost all of Ukraine’s grain exports, Bloomberg reported. Weekly grain and oilseed exports have fallen by more than 90% since early July, data from commodity-data firm Kpler show. That threatens fall planting and the sector that generates more than half of Ukraine’s export revenue. The disruption is also raising food costs in countries that rely on imported grain, Reuters reported.
Farmers must either store harvests they cannot export or sell locally at about one-third of global prices, Bloomberg reported. They say this year’s crisis is worse than the 2022 blockade because the financial reserves that carried them through six months of disruption then have since been depleted.
Russian attacks drive ships from Ukraine’s grain corridor
Ukraine’s Black Sea grain corridor—the wartime shipping route from Odesa—was never formally closed, Euromaidan Press reported. Four or five ships entered Ukraine’s ports on 21 July. Still, none arrived the next day because shipowners had paused calls, not because Ukraine had restricted navigation, Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi told Ukrainian agricultural outlet Latifundist.
Ukraine’s state railway, Ukrzaliznytsia, subsequently restricted selected wheat and barley shipments to Odesa ports. Its register did not state a reason, and the railway did not publicly link the orders to the shipping disruption.
Oleksandr Havryliuk, who farms near the front in Kharkiv Oblast, told Bloomberg that losing his harvest would probably bankrupt him and force him to sell the farm. The National Bank of Ukraine estimates that Ukraine could lose about $2.5 billion in export revenue during the second half of 2026, Reuters reported. Bloomberg said the disruption could trigger widespread farm bankruptcies.
Ukraine seeks EU aid and export routes as losses mount
Financing was already constrained before the port crisis: available financing and insurance were “enough to keep the sector surviving, not enough to keep it growing,” Vysotskyi told Euromaidan Press in May.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, agriculture accounted for more than 10% of Ukraine’s economic output, according to World Bank data cited by Bloomberg.
The sector has since grown more important as Russian attacks have destroyed much of the country’s heavy industry, Evghenia Sleptsova, a senior economist at the economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics, told Bloomberg.
Her firm estimates that the disruption could cost the equivalent of 1.8% of GDP this year and 2.1% in 2027. Under a prolonged severe disruption, the 2027 loss could instead reach 5.3%, Oxford Economics said.
Ukraine could exhaust its grain-storage capacity by early November if exports do not recover, the Agriculture Ministry said, according to Bloomberg. Even using every available route, the country may export only about 30 million tons this season, leaving roughly the same volume stored or rotting, Vysotskyi said.
Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry requested a €220 million EU grant to subsidize interest and unlock up to €4 billion in loans, the ministry said.
Ukraine and Moldova are also discussing a rail route through Moldova to Romania’s port of Constanța, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources in both countries. Kyiv estimates the route could carry about 10% of its grain exports.
Western rail corridors have limited capacity, while low water levels restrict traffic through Danube ports. Both alternatives cost more than shipping through the Black Sea, Bloomberg reported.
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