France, Germany, and the UK are working to create a format representing Europe in talks over Russia’s war against Ukraine, The New York Times reported on 15 August, citing five European officials. Known collectively as the E3, the three countries would support Ukraine’s position and protect European interests in any settlement.

The initiative is Europe’s attempt to secure a place in talks the US is expected to lead. The three governments fear that Washington and Moscow could reach a deal without them, although Europe would have to enforce sanctions, decide how to use frozen Russian assets, and help protect Ukraine afterward. European officials also doubt Washington will stay committed to serious negotiations.

The officials expect Washington to lead negotiations with Moscow. The E3 wants to become the core group supporting Ukraine, following Kyiv’s request that it prepare for talks. France and Germany are shaping the position, while Britain fears damaging relations with Trump.

Poland, Italy, and the Nordic countries would be consulted, with the EU later involved. Some Baltic states and Hungary do not trust France and Germany to represent them. London called the discussion speculative.

The Coalition has rehearsed a force but not agreed to deploy it

The E3 forms the core of the Coalition of the Willing. At a 7 June meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, its leaders backed an immediate ceasefire and legally binding guarantees, including the deployment of a multinational force.

More than 600 British troops rehearsed with French paratroopers and an Italian platoon in February for a possible deployment. They could form the core of a 10,000-strong force pledged by London and Paris after a ceasefire.

Yet some members reportedly made Russia’s consent a condition for deploying troops, effectively giving Moscow a veto. Bulgaria has left, and Germany has not committed troops. The Coalition’s leadership is also shifting after Keir Starmer’s resignation and ahead of Emmanuel Macron’s departure in 2027.

Ukraine talks still misunderstand Russia's intentions

European officials see few signs that Vladimir Putin is ready for serious negotiations, the NYT reported. A separate EU attempt to open direct contact with Moscow divided member states.

Experts told Euromaidan Press that Russia uses peace processes to stall, press maximalist demands, and improve its battlefield position. Moscow also dismissed a Black Sea ceasefire proposal after Kyiv offered a mutual halt to attacks on civilian targets.

Ukraine’s partners risk mistaking Russia’s presence at talks for a willingness to compromise. Former Ukrainian diplomat Iuliia Osmolovska warned that Moscow also benefits from failed negotiations by exhausting Western governments until they pressure Kyiv to concede.

Before 2022, Russia signed 26 ceasefires in eastern Ukraine; none lasted more than two weeks. A pause can bank concessions, rotate troops, and let Moscow resume fighting from a stronger position.

A plan presented to the UK's new Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, would extend Britain's nuclear umbrella to Ukraine and other non-NATO European states. In exchange, Britain would regain access to the EU single market for goods, The Telegraph reported on 9 August.

The proposal comes as European governments question whether they can rely on US protection and struggle to turn moral support for Ukraine into troops and weapons. Russia's invasions, despite the assurances Kyiv received from the US and the UK when it surrendered its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest memorandum, have also revived calls for nuclear-backed guarantees.

Former Conservative MP Nick Boles drafted the plan. He proposes a "European Confederation" that combines single-market access with NATO-style mutual defense commitments. 

For Ukraine, it would provide protection modeled on NATO Articles 4 and 5 while Kyiv pursued full EU membership.

Ukraine would maintain a large army as Europe's bulwark against Russia and share defense technology with other members of the Confederation. Britain would raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, while both countries would gain full access to the EU's single market for goods.

Boles said Europe needed a new security model because neither US President Donald Trump nor a future US president could be guaranteed to "defend Europe as if it were Kansas." 

Boles's plan is not Burnham government policy. Nevertheless, it has circulated among officials, including National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, as London considers deeper cooperation with the EU.

Britain's support bumps against Europe's political limits

Prime Minister Burnham entered Downing Street as a firm supporter of Ukraine. He assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that British support remained unchanged and pledged to preserve aid levels.

Britain also co-leads with France the Coalition of the Willing, which plans to deploy forces in Ukraine after a ceasefire to deter another Russian attack.

The Coalition has brought together representatives of 40 countries. Still, members remain divided over how far to support Ukraine.

Britain and France have formally declared their intention to deploy forces after a potential ceasefire in Ukraine. Yet Poland offered logistical support but ruled out troop deployment, while Bulgaria has withdrawn from the Coalition. Europe has promised deterrence, but key deep-strike missiles may not arrive until 2029.

Boles's plan would pair Britain's nuclear deterrent with Ukraine's conventional military strength. Unlike the Coalition’s voluntary plans, Boles's proposed European Confederation would place its defense guarantees in a treaty. NATO would initially be responsible for carrying them out.

From surrendered weapons to a nuclear shield

Ukraine inherited the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal after the Soviet collapse, including about 1,900 strategic warheads. 

Kyiv relinquished them under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum after receiving security assurances from Russia, Britain, and the US. Despite these promises, Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and launched its full-scale war in 2022.

Russia's invasions have revived calls among Ukrainian lawmakers for nuclear-backed security guarantees. Politician Roman Kostenko has called for guarantees that could include British and French nuclear retaliation in the event of another Russian attack. 

Under Boles's proposal, Ukraine would not regain its own warheads. It would instead come under Britain's nuclear shield.