With the federal deficit near 6% of GDP and the national debt over $40tn, America’s fiscal position looks increasingly precarious

• Bessent ‘will lose’ battle with bond markets, ex-mentor warns

Are we seeing the first signs of panic in Donald Trump’s Treasury? The US is by far the world’s biggest debtor, and the steady rise in global long-term interest rates – which I have long argued was inevitable – is starting to cause real pain.

Until now, the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has dismissed concerns about US debt, which recently surpassed $40tn, as a big nothingburger. Growth, in his telling, will be so spectacular the US will easily be able to meet its interest obligations without any significant tax rises or spending cuts, while the rest of the world will happily keep feeding it money. But if Bessent really believes that, why is he trying to strong-arm the bond market by fiddling with the maturity structure of government debt?

Announcement of tariffs on $20bn worth of US goods follows through on Mark Carney's vow to match US tariffs 'dollar for dollar'

Confidence index drops to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July amid frustration after five years of elevated inflation

Americans’ confidence in the economy declined again this month as the ongoing conflict in Iran continued to push US gasoline prices above $4 per gallon.

The Conference Board said on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index dipped to 89.4 in August from 90.2 in July. That was the lowest level in seven months but was essentially within the same lukewarm range it has been in since the beginning of the year. In late 2024 and early 2025, readings were consistently above 100.

Trump ally should cut budget deficit rather than try to suppress bond yields, says billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller

Scott Bessent’s attempt to calm the bond markets and push down America’s cost of borrowing have attracted a rebuke from the US Treasury secretary’s former mentor.

The billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who worked with Bessent at George Soros’s fund management firm in the 1990s, has warned that his former pupil is courting danger by trying to suppress US bond yields.

The US is scooping up treasury bonds in an effort to raise their price and push yields down – but it’s not working

The bond market is driving the Trump administration crazy. Last week, the treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, announced that the government would sharply ramp up its purchase of treasury bonds, in an effort to raise their price and thus push down their yield, which amounts to the interest rate the government pays on its debt.

It didn’t quite work as planned. Yields on treasurys fell after Bessent’s bond market intervention but soon bounced back. By Friday afternoon, the yield on the 10-year treasury was back near where it was before the secretary’s announcement. The yield on the 30-year bond was again trading around its highest level in 20 years or more.

Investors will hope Kevin Warsh offers ‘comfort blanket’ at annual meeting of central banks amid bond market anxiety

The new US Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, faces a critical test this week amid anxiety in government bond markets over inflation and Donald Trump’s tax and spending plans.

As the world’s most powerful central bank prepares for its annual Jackson Hole conference, analysts said bond traders would be looking for signals from Warsh over its commitment to fighting inflation.

Breakdown shows Washington now prioritises its own interests over any semblance of shared economic ground

• ‘No more!!!’: Trump lashes out after US-Canada talks devolve into trade war

The calamitous collapse of trade negotiations between Canada and the United States is a warning to nations worldwide that pursuing any kind of dialogue with the current US administration is doomed at the outset, according to observers who say this recent episode indicates seeking a fair deal is futile.

Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University in Ontario, said: “No matter the closeness of the historical relationship, the American administration has signalled that it now prioritises its interests above those of some sort of global economic coordination or harmony.

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s attempt to calm bond markets is a sign of weakness not strength

“Look, there’s nothing magic about that $40tn number,” the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told CNBC insouciantly last week, as the country’s debt mountain surpassed another bleak record.

Yet Bessent’s decision to intervene in government bond markets in an effort to combat soaring yields belied his studied calm in TV interviews – and reignited fears the US may be on the road to a debt crisis.

As yields are dragged higher in the UK, Europe and Japan, the impact for consumers and businesses will be far-reaching

• ‘Starve the beast’? The $40tn cost of Republicans’ false promises to cut spending

Government borrowing costs around the world have surged to the highest levels in decades amid growing fears over US bond market turmoil.

Anxiety about Donald Trump’s handling of the US economy, and concern that the US president’s war with Iran is driving up inflation, are causing a sell-off in the US bond market.

The enormous US debt under Trump will hobble the next Democratic administration – just as the GOP planned

• Why is the Trump administration causing turmoil in the bond markets?

You could pin the US’s staggering $40tn in government debt to Donald Trump’s Keystone Cops-style governance. Tariffs he sold as a new source of revenue were struck down by the supreme court, forcing the government to return tens of billions of dollars to importers. Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge), ostensibly created to stop wasteful government spending, decimated federal programs and probably killed millions of children, but did nothing to close the budget deficit. The burst of inflation following Trump’s misguided adventure in Iran sharply raised the cost of serving the government’s obligations.

Yet as the federal debt hits an all-time high, up from about $35tn when Trump took office less than two years ago, it is worth noting that the US’s gargantuan indebtedness is in fact the product of a longstanding Republican strategy that took shape well before Trump could even dream about gold-plating the White House. It was called “starve the beast”.

Despite previously comparing him to a ‘mobster’, Trump’s former personal lawyer showers him with praise. This blog is now closed.

• Trump administration faces questions over top aide Natalie Harp’s security clearance

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An FBI team seized electronic devices from former US representative Eric Swalwell at the San Francisco airport on Saturday, then raided his home in Washington, DC, the next day, CNN reported Thursday.

The raid is part of a federal investigation into the sexual assault allegations which ultimately drove the Bay Area Democrat to resign from office in April, sources familiar with the investigation told CNN. The Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department subsequently opened criminal investigations on Swalwell.

Inflation fuelled by Iran conflict deterring shoppers, especially in the US, says high street chain

• JD Sports boss is still struggling to turn up the heat

The sports fashion retailer JD has cut £50m from its profit forecast as cost of living pressures, fuelled by the US war on Iran, weighed on sales of trainers.

JD Sports, which sells brands including Nike and Adidas, said widespread inflation had hit shoppers’ wallets, particularly its core young shoppers, resulting in a drop in sales across important markets such as the US, where it struggled to shift trainers and other footwear.

A weak yuan guarantees Beijing massive trade surplus even as the White House tries tamp down on Chinese imports

Since China offered a truce in the trade war last October following its threat to deprive the United States of rare-earth magnets, the Trump administration has been happy to stop escalating. After all, imports from China have been falling, down by 40% in the year to June, compared with the same period in 2024. Best to declare victory and call it a day.

But the US hasn’t won this battle – and there’s strong evidence to show it’s too chicken to really try.

Interest rates, now sitting at about 3.5-3.7%, expected to go up if inflation doesn’t come down to Fed’s 2% target

The US treasury is doubling its buyback of government debt in an effort to balance out the bond market as officials at the US Federal Reserve remain divided over how to deal with high inflation.

The yield rate on 10-year, 20-year and 30-year treasury notes all hit 20-year highs this week, with the 30-year treasury yield rising to its highest rate since 2007. The rapid rise was concerning news for borrowers as major loans, including mortgages, are backed by treasuries.

Concern over impact of Iran war pushes up government bond yields in US, UK, France, Germany and Japan

Government borrowing costs in several advanced economies hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, or even earlier, on Monday as investors feared the Middle East crisis would keep inflation persistently high.

Concerns over rising prices and government spending pushed up the cost of debt issued by Paris, Berlin, Washington DC, Tokyo and London as investors fretted that rising prices would push up interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Bank of England appear unclear on how to tackle inflation amid the Iran war

• New UK cost of living crisis looms as rising energy bills lift inflation

As the Middle East crisis drags on into its sixth month, central banks sit in a tricky position. Oil prices remain at elevated levels, stoking inflationary pressures while also threatening to weigh on growth.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are still smarting from the criticism of their inaction in 2022, when inflation soared above 10% in the UK and eurozone and over 9% in the US.

US tax policy deprives the government of revenue and overwhelmingly serves the interests of the rich

After the House passed its version of Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) last year – the one that paired a $5tn-plus tax cut with $1tn-plus of cuts from food stamps and Medicaid – the House speaker, Mike Johnson, explained that “this is not giving tax cuts to the millionaires”. The beneficiaries, he said, were “small business owners” that “provide the jobs in every community in America”.

Johnson was playing to the myth of the modest, sturdy Main Street job creator. It is an appealing story. It’s also the most consequential piece of BS distorting American policy that deprives the government of tax revenue, stunts American capitalism, twists regulations, thwarts competition and overwhelmingly serves millionaires’ interests.

Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as regulator says five companies can raise bills to pay for infrastructure for new housing and datacentres

The biggest factor for the FTSE 100’s underperformance on Thursday morning relative to other European markets is a big decline in the mining sector.

Chilean miner Antofagasta is the biggest faller on London’s benchmark index, down 4.9% after it cut its guidance for future output.

The London-listed miner cut its 2026 copper output estimate to between 625,000 and 655,000 metric tons, from a previous forecast of 650,000 to 700,000 tons, due to a shutdown at its Los Pelambres mine in July after extreme rains prompted Chile’s government to declare a “state of catastrophe” in the Coquimbo Region.

While there has been no material impact on key equipment and infrastructure, the miner said it will need to repair some pipeline platforms and water management systems.

A cheap currency helps finance the US tech boom. Washington is intervening because allies matter only when they are useful

Japan’s yen has slid back towards 160 to the dollar, despite last month’s extraordinary US-Japanese intervention. Traders are betting that its role as a cheap funding pipeline for global finance will continue. Earlier this month the Trump administration stepped in to help Tokyo stabilise its currency. “Japan’s been very good to us, with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor,” Donald Trump explained. More help is likely to be on its way.

But this is less a rescue of the yen than an attempt by Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, to preserve a cash spigot that benefits the US. Japan’s ultra-cheap money has become a global funding utility: bankers borrow yen, sell them for dollars and buy higher-returning US assets, notably tech shares. Rising American stock markets support collateral and investment. Japan’s “carry trade” is one of the reasons Wall Street can lever hundreds of billions into AI. Research suggests AI sucks up more than 1% of US GDP.

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Mortgage and student loan balances saw ‘small decline’ with increases elsewhere, says post alongside Fed report

Credit card debt in the United States is growing close to a record high, having crept up from $54bn to $1.26tn between April and June compared with the same period last year, according to a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

That figure is just shy of last year’s record high of $1.28tn.

Energy is cheaper than at its peak in late April, but gas is still nearly $1 a gallon more expensive than before the Iran war

US consumer prices cooled slightly in July as the annualized inflation rate dipped down to 3.4%, though prices still remain higher than levels seen before the war with Iran.

Though inflation decreased 0.7 percentage points in June during a brief ceasefire between the US and Iran that brought energy prices down, consumer prices have remained elevated. Price increases hit a three-year high in May, with annual inflation reaching 4.2%.