With the federal deficit near 6% of GDP and the national debt over $40tn, America’s fiscal position looks increasingly precarious

• Bessent ‘will lose’ battle with bond markets, ex-mentor warns

Are we seeing the first signs of panic in Donald Trump’s Treasury? The US is by far the world’s biggest debtor, and the steady rise in global long-term interest rates – which I have long argued was inevitable – is starting to cause real pain.

Until now, the Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has dismissed concerns about US debt, which recently surpassed $40tn, as a big nothingburger. Growth, in his telling, will be so spectacular the US will easily be able to meet its interest obligations without any significant tax rises or spending cuts, while the rest of the world will happily keep feeding it money. But if Bessent really believes that, why is he trying to strong-arm the bond market by fiddling with the maturity structure of government debt?

Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s attempt to calm bond markets is a sign of weakness not strength

“Look, there’s nothing magic about that $40tn number,” the US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, told CNBC insouciantly last week, as the country’s debt mountain surpassed another bleak record.

Yet Bessent’s decision to intervene in government bond markets in an effort to combat soaring yields belied his studied calm in TV interviews – and reignited fears the US may be on the road to a debt crisis.

A weak yuan guarantees Beijing massive trade surplus even as the White House tries tamp down on Chinese imports

Since China offered a truce in the trade war last October following its threat to deprive the United States of rare-earth magnets, the Trump administration has been happy to stop escalating. After all, imports from China have been falling, down by 40% in the year to June, compared with the same period in 2024. Best to declare victory and call it a day.

But the US hasn’t won this battle – and there’s strong evidence to show it’s too chicken to really try.

Concern over impact of Iran war pushes up government bond yields in US, UK, France, Germany and Japan

Government borrowing costs in several advanced economies hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, or even earlier, on Monday as investors feared the Middle East crisis would keep inflation persistently high.

Concerns over rising prices and government spending pushed up the cost of debt issued by Paris, Berlin, Washington DC, Tokyo and London as investors fretted that rising prices would push up interest rates.