Ukraine’s Zaporizhstal plant plans to shift much of its output to lower-value pig iron to keep exporting under the European Union’s new steel quotas. The move would idle up to half the plant’s capacity, its parent company, Metinvest, says.

The EU says the quotas shield its own producers from a global steel surplus. For Ukraine, whose steel entered duty-free after Brussels lifted tariffs after the 2022 invasion, they land on an industry already hit repeatedly by Russian strikes and cut off from the sea. The tariff-free quota fell by half on 1 July, with a 50% duty on anything above it.

Ukraine’s new allowance runs to roughly 1 million metric tons, about 60% below its 2025 shipments to the bloc, the Kyiv consultancy GMK Center calculates.

Steel makes up about 15% of Ukraine’s exports, and the EU buys close to four-fifths of it. The country’s Federation of Employers estimates the curbs could cost $1.2 billion in foreign earnings and cut GDP by 0.6%.

Falling back on pig iron

Pig iron, a semi-finished product, falls outside the quota, so lifting its share keeps the furnaces earning. But the switch would force the plant to reassign the workers behind those idled lines, Oleksandr Myronenko told Reuters. “Instead of support from the European Union, we face restrictions,” said the Metinvest chief operating officer.

Ukrainian mills cannot easily sell elsewhere: they are less efficient than cheaper Turkish and Chinese suppliers and are undercut in Europe’s own market, Myronenko said.

With the Black Sea route closed, importing coking coal through other European ports now runs $30 to $40 more a metric ton. Rail freight rose 30% this month, and an EU carbon charge has been applied to steel imports since 1 January.

A strike, and a plan in doubt

A Russian ballistic missile killed seven Zaporizhstal workers and shut the plant on 11 August.

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The fate of Metinvest’s $8 billion, 15-year plan to convert to cleaner “green steel” is unclear; Myronenko called the modernization unrealistic in wartime. Zaporizhstal is the largest employer in the Zaporizhzhia region and, with the rest of Metinvest, is majority-owned by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine’s richest man.

On the plant floor, senior foreman Artem Kalinevych said: “As of today it’s not clear what comes next.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's ongoing support for Ukraine at a NATO summit in The Hague on June 24.

"We have designed a funding program of 50 billion euros, we call it Safe, where member states, but also Ukraine and other partners, can take these loans to invest in the (Ukrainian) defense industry," she said, addressing President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We are integrating our defense industries as if Ukraine was in the EU. This is good for Ukraine. And just as good for Europe, as Ukraine is now home to extraordinary innovation," von der Leyen later said in a post to social media.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

"(M)y dear friend Volodymyr, you're here among friends and we stand by Ukraine from the very first day on and you can count on us also for the future," von der Leyen said.

The leader described the EU's 18th sanctions package as a "biting one" to apply pressure on Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Secondly, of course, there's constant financial support to Ukraine because we know you're fighting a war that is also protecting our values and our principles, and thirdly, indeed, we have to put pressure on President Putin (so) that he comes to the negotiation table," von der Leyen said.

She noted that members of the Group of Seven (G7) will also be implementing additional sanctions against Russia.

"All this shows you are among friends, you can count on us, we stand by your side," von der Leyen said.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

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Hungary's national consultation on Ukraine's accession to the EU had the lowest ever turnout at such a poll, Hungarian opposition leader Peter Magyar said on June 21.

"The... government propaganda campaign is a total failure. Based on information we received from multiple sources within Magyar Posta (Hungarian Post), only 3-7% of the sent 'ballots' were returned," Magyar said in a post to social media.

The poll was announced by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in early March and officially launched on April 19 with ballot papers sent to Hungarian citizens. Many ballot papers explicitly encouraged voters to reject Ukraine’s EU bid.

Orban, on April 22, said he voted against Ukraine's accession to the EU in the national consultation, publicly sharing photos of himself marking "against" on the poll ballot.

"This means that realistically, a maximum of 500,000 people may have 'voted' on paper... the Prime Minister’s Office revealed... that the number of online submissions was negligible compared to the paper-based ones," Magyar said.

"This aligns with information received from government sources — indicating that despite the propaganda lies, the total number of 'voters' could be at most 600,000," he added.

Despite the government's resistance, polling shows public support for Ukraine's accession to the bloc. According to Magyar's opposition party, Tisza's "Voice of the Nation" initiative, which received over 1.1 million responses, 58.18% of participants supported Ukraine's EU bid.

Magyar claims that the national poll garnered around 600,000 responses would mean that the opposition party's own polling received more responses than the government poll.

"This is the lowest number in the 'glorious' history of (national consultations). And this was only achieved over several months, with total mobilization and the burning of tens of billions in public funds. A total failure," Magyar said.

Hungarian officials have repeatedly threatened to undermine Ukraine's EU candidacy and EU support for Ukraine. Hungary has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU aid packages for Kyiv.

"(T)he failed, corrupt regime doesn’t care about people's real problems, and doesn’t dare to look people in the eye. They only send them letters," Magyar said.

Comrades, be proud of lying about two million pen pals, funded by 10 billion forints ($29 million) in state propaganda," he added, addressing Hungary's ruling government.

European officials have denounced Hungary for aligning with Russia. European officials, including Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, have suggested stripping Hungary of its voting power within the bloc.

Hungary maintains positive relations with Russia in contrast with other EU members. On March 26, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto visited Moscow to discuss continued economic cooperation between the two countries.

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Editor’s note: This story was published in conjunction with Grist. Twenty-two-year-old software developer Artem Motorniuk has spent his entire life in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, living in the north and visiting his grandparents in the south. It’s been almost four years since he’s seen them in person.

The Kyiv IndependentChad Small