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On Wednesday, Trump officially signed a proclamation on Wednesday that suspends higher tariffs on 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef imports for 90 days. This comes after backlash to the proposal – designed to lower grocery costs for Americans in the run-up to the November midterms.

Several Republicans – in states with sizable cattle farming industries – have criticized the policy, saying it is a short term solution that will stymie ranchers’ ability to rebuild their herds.

Four leading livestock and agricultural organizations also wrote a letter to the president on Wednesday urging him to reverse course.

“Flooding the market with discounted foreign beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd, strengthen food security, or lower grocery bills in a lasting way,” the groups wrote.

Donald Trump will begin his day in Washington, before traveling to Houston, Texas where he’ll headline a Republican National Commitee (RNC) fundraiser, and help boost Ken Paxton — the state’s attorney general and Republican nominee for Senate.

A reminder that Paxton beat long serving Senator John Cornyn in the GOP primary earlier this year after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Paxton is set to face Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico in November.

Ukrainian defense manufacturer Fire Point has delayed its Danish missile-fuel plant until late 2027 after the original building failed to meet safety requirements, pushing the estimated cost above €150 million, Euractiv reported on 19 August.

The plant will produce solid rocket propellant for Fire Point’s Flamingo cruise missiles. Denmark was the first NATO country to permit Ukrainian military production on its territory, the German outlet BILD reported. The site is intended to move some production away from Russian attacks in Ukraine, but the delay postpones that capacity by a year.

Fire Point is building the plant in Vojens, near Skrydstrup Air Base in southern Denmark, Euromaidan Press reported.

Fire Point CEO Iryna Terekh announced the revised plan at DALO Industry Days, a defense-industry conference in Herning. She said Fire Point had originally expected the project to cost €50 million and called the new estimate “very rough.”

Denmark had already removed more than 20 legal barriers to speed up the project, Euractiv reported. Terekh said other European countries also remained interested in hosting Fire Point production.

What is Fire Point

Fire Point currently makes missiles and drones at 90 locations across Ukraine, Terekh told Euractiv in July.

The company supplies more than half of Ukraine’s deep-strike weapons—arms used to hit targets far behind the front line—and says it produces 300 drones daily, in a July 2026 interview with Liga.

In August 2025, Fire Point was producing 100 FP-1 long-range attack drones each day, according to the Associated Press. Its later figure includes FP-1 and FP-2 drones.

Denmark directly funds Ukrainian arms makers

Denmark has created the “Danish model” of aid, which uses allied money to buy weapons directly from Ukrainian manufacturers instead of taking equipment from donor stockpiles.

About $200 million of the €590 million military aid package announced in June was directed through the mechanism, Euromaidan Press reported. Denmark has committed about $11.7 billion in military support to Ukraine from 2022 through 2028, according to its Defense Ministry.

Finland is investigating a suspected violation of its airspace by a Russian aircraft over the Gulf of Finland, its Defense Ministry said. Authorities have not identified the aircraft or said whether the crossing was deliberate, and the country's border guard has opened an inquiry. The case adds Finland to a growing list of NATO states reporting Russian intrusions along the alliance's frontiers.

What Finland reported

A Russian aircraft is suspected of violating Finnish airspace in the western Gulf of Finland on the afternoon of 20 August, Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said. He said the country treats every such case seriously and that an inquiry is running.

"Every suspected territorial violation is taken seriously. An investigation is underway," Häkkänen said.

The ministry statement did not name the aircraft. The Border Guard later identified it as a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane, Finnish broadcaster Yle reported, saying the suspected crossing lasted about three minutes and reached some 4.7 nautical miles into Finnish airspace at its deepest. It said it would release more as the inquiry advances.

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Finland already builds drones with a Ukrainian partner. Joining the drone coalition is the next step

A pattern along NATO's frontiers

The suspected crossing follows two earlier Finnish cases this year. Finland suspected Russian military aircraft of entering its airspace in May, off Porkkala while one avoided a thunderstorm, and again in June, summoning Russia's chargé d'affaires over the two incidents.

Other members of the alliance keep logging similar incidents. Romania has destroyed a sea drone and recovered aerial-drone debris on its soil, and Russian drones have struck near Moldova's border with Ukraine. Kyiv has also accused Russia of steering Ukrainian drones toward Finland and the Baltic States through electronic warfare.

Finland joined NATO in 2023 and has since rearmed sharply, ending a domestic ban on nuclear weapons as part of a wider defense shift. It has stepped up support for Ukraine, most recently backing a power-plant project before Russia's winter energy campaign. Helsinki has also argued it is too early to negotiate with Moscow while the war continues.

Romania destroyed an explosives-laden maritime drone near its critical Neptun Deep gas platform and recovered debris from a separate aerial drone that crashed on its soil, the Romanian Defense Ministry reported. The incidents came during a major Russian attack on Ukraine on 20 August that killed 14 people in Kyiv city and oblast, caused incidents in Moldova, and triggered air defense activation in Poland.

F-16 fires cannon at sea drone near gas platform

A commercial vessel spotted a drifting maritime drone near the Neptun Alpha production platform, approximately 80 nautical miles east of Constanța, at around 06:28, the Defense Ministry said. Two Romanian F-16s scrambled with orders to fire. One engaged the target with its onboard cannon—the first time Romania used a cannon against a drone and the first engagement against a maritime drone. All previous shootdowns used air-to-air missiles against aerial drones.

The country's Defense Minister Radu Miruță said the drone was carrying explosives and was spotted just hundreds of meters from the platform where several hundred people work. Through a recently established direct communication channel, Ukraine confirmed the drone was not of Ukrainian origin. President Nicușor Dan directly blamed Russia, condemning "the intensification of these types of irresponsible incidents on the part of the Russian Federation."

The engagement came nine days after Romanian navy divers destroyed two Gerbera-type drones drifting near the same platform by controlled detonation.

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14 killed as Russia unleashes massive overnight barrage on unprotected Kyiv, striking homes, hospital, school and railway infrastructure

Aerial drone crashes in Romania's Tulcea County

Earlier overnight, Romanian radar detected aerial targets near the Ukrainian border at 02:23, the Defense Ministry said. Two Spanish F-18s from NATO's air policing mission and a Romanian IAR-330 SOCAT helicopter scrambled. At 03:21, a drone crossed into Romanian airspace 13 km east of Galați and crashed three minutes later near the village of Grindu in Tulcea County. No casualties or damage were reported. The fragments posed no explosive hazard.

The crash came four days after a Spanish F-18 shot down another drone over Romanian airspace, Euronews reported. Romanian F-16s intercepted three Russian drones in July.

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Russian Shaheds hit near Moldova-border crossing, burn food cargo, and black out 13,000 in Odesa Oblast

Poland activates defenses, Moldova hit by drone spillover

Poland's Operational Command activated military aircraft and ground-based air defense systems during the Russian attack as a preventive measure. The Netherlands provided air defense support. No breach of Polish airspace was recorded.

Moldova faced multiple incidents. At 03:16, the country's National Army detected what was preliminarily identified as a Shahed-136/Geran-2 drone crossing from Ukraine near Kotlovyna in Odesa Oblast into Moldova's Gagauzia region. It returned to Ukrainian airspace six minutes later, public broadcaster Moldova1 said.

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Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s Danube ports hit recent high, Romania says

Separately, an explosion at a truck parking lot on Ukrainian territory about 150 meters from the Giurgiulești-Reni border crossing at around 03:45 sparked a fire that spread onto Moldovan soil, Newsmaker reported. Border police found drone fragments in a crater approximately 1 km inside Moldovan territory. 

The US plan to sell Türkiye F-35 stealth fighter jets has stalled, blocked by a Russian missile system Ankara bought years ago, Semafor reported. Lawmakers in Washington won't clear the deal while Türkiye keeps the hardware. The lone buyer in talks hasn't budged, and destroying the system is now on the table.

Russia has long used arms exports to pull buyers into its orbit, and the war it started raised the price of those ties—leaving governments that bought Russian air defense to clash with the supplier that sold it.

The Russian system is in the way

US sanctions law bars Türkiye from the F-35 program while it retains the Russian S-400, Semafor reported. That system is a long-range air defense, built to shoot down planes and missiles. Ankara already paid for six of the jets. They have sat in the United States since Washington expelled Türkiye from the F-35 program in 2019. US President Donald Trump announced plans to sell the jets more than a month ago, and nothing has moved since.

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Türkiye wants to send Ukraine old US-made cluster munitions—one human rights group is fighting to stop it

No buyer, no easy exit

One way out is to sell the S-400 to another country. Türkiye reportedly opened talks with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, but they don't appear to have progressed. American lawmakers insist Ankara must give up the system entirely first.

Republican Senator Rick Scott told Semafor that Türkiye shouldn't get the jets unless it becomes a true partner—"so if they have the S-400, they cannot have the F-35." Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, a longtime opponent, said the process is "at a standstill."

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Erdoğan asks Putin to take back Russian S-400 SAM systems in move to win Trump’s favor

Israel and Congress are the live block

The sharper obstacle sits in Washington, Semafor reported. A vote to sell would pit Israel against a NATO ally, and many of Trump's own allies want the S-400 scrapped completely. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the jets could "destroy the power balance in the Middle East." The outlet said AIPAC, the leading pro-Israel lobby in Washington, is pressing Congress to keep the block.

Selling it still runs through Moscow

Any resale carries its own catch: Russia must approve the transfer of the S-400, giving the Kremlin a reason to block it. The only option that bypasses Moscow is to disable or destroy the system outright. Türkiye earlier tried to return the systems to Moscow, hoping to thaw relations with Washington. It didn't work.

The Trump administration says Ankara hasn't met all the conditions to buy the jets, and the State Department wants the S-400 issue settled with guarantees first.

Ukraine brought the world's most battle-tested counter-drone experience to a NATO exercise. From 3 to 14 August, Ukraine took part in NATO's Baltic Trust 2026 exercise in Latvia, which focused on countering drones and other threats posed by uncrewed aerial systems, the General Staff reported.

The exercise responds to a mounting Russian threat against NATO's Baltic flank. Russia has probed the alliance's eastern edge so aggressively that NATO scrambled over the Baltic, jumping more than 250% in July.

Also, Moscow has increasingly launched drones on the Baltic States. Even on 14 August, the final day of the drill, a NATO fighter shot down a drone over Latvia after Russian electronic warfare pushed it off course, the second Baltic drone incursion that week. Baltic Trust 2026 was NATO's answer: about 650 participants from 24 countries building the counter-drone defenses that the threat demands.

The exercise tested systems working together

Baltic Trust focused on integration, not single technologies. Soldiers, specialists, and industry representatives jointly tested new technological solutions in conditions close to a modern operational environment, the General Staff said.

The core was whether the pieces work as one system. Participants checked how detection tools, command-and-control systems, and counter-drone measures can exchange data, form a common operational picture, and enable coordinated response.

Ukraine's experience is the draw

Ukraine's participation carries particular weight in this field. No NATO member has faced the scale of drone attack Ukraine confronts nightly, and its forces have built and continually adapt the detection, interception, and electronic-warfare methods that down Russian drones by the tens of thousands.

That makes Ukraine a source of hard-won practical knowledge for allies still preparing for threats Ukraine already lives with. Bringing Ukrainian experience into a NATO drill turns the country's battlefield lessons into shared allied capability, on exactly the drone warfare the alliance is scrambling to counter on its eastern flank.

The exercise builds collective defense

Baltic Trust served NATO's broader readiness. Jointly testing and integrating such solutions helps turn technological innovation into practical capabilities that strengthen readiness and collective defense.

Previously, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Head Sergey Naryshkin accused NATO of escalating military activity near Russia’s borders. He warned that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of a war between Moscow and the Alliance.

Slovak company STV Machinery has produced the first two prototype hulls for the BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle after a 36-year break in production. The plant in Dubnica nad Váhom began developing an updated design in 2024, and a contract with an unnamed foreign customer was signed in late 2025, with serial production scheduled for 2026 to 2027.

The Slovak outlet Future Army reported this on 15 August, citing STV Group's director of special projects, Pavel Beran. He said one prototype is being used to test final assembly and the integration of weapons systems, while the second is undergoing physical and stress testing. The company will not disclose the customer's identity, citing security and business-ethics considerations.

Ukraine has a substantial need for armoured vehicles. Its forces already use and modernise the BMP-1, and cooperation with Western manufacturers could help replenish the fleet faster. In 2024, for example, Ukraine and Germany's Rheinmetall agreed to produce the Lynx IFV and to expand defence cooperation.

The Slovak plant has returned to BMP-1 production

According to Militarnyi, the new hulls remain outwardly similar to the Soviet BMP-1 design but have been reworked to more modern requirements. STV Machinery revised the design to meet NATO standards for ergonomics and materials, and strengthened the armour using more modern materials.

Future vehicles will offer a choice of powerplant, with Western-made engines among the options. STV Machinery, the Slovak firm, will produce the hulls and other components, after which its Czech sister company STV Group will carry out full assembly and testing.

The exact size of the order is not yet known, though earlier reports suggested production could eventually reach up to 100 hulls a year.

The company has not named the customer. Defense Express suggested as early as December 2025 that it could be Ukraine. One scenario the outlet floated was the supply of hulls or turretless vehicles, which would allow other combat modules to be fitted.

Why Slovakia is building the BMP-1 again

The Dubnica nad Váhom plant previously built licensed versions of the BMP-1, known locally as the BVP-1. Serial production there ran until 1989, after which the plant went more than three decades without making new hulls for the vehicle. The site is the same, but the manufacturer is not: the original vehicles came off the ZŤS Dubnica nad Váhom line in the Czechoslovak era, while today's hulls are made by STV Machinery.

At the same time, the BMP-1 remains a vehicle of the 1960s. Even a modernised hull does not change the platform's fundamental limitations, particularly its level of protection. So if Ukraine really is behind the order, it is likely more a way to rapidly increase the number of armoured vehicles than a long-term replacement for modern Western IFVs, Defense Express noted in 2025.

Also Defense Express stressed that the customer's identity remains only speculation, adding that the buyer could turn out to be another country that operates or once operated the BMP-1, and that firmer detail will have to wait for the company.

Russia has built or expanded at least 10 drone bases along its borders with Ukraine and Belarus, creating launch capacity for newer jet-powered attack drones, the most powerful of which could reach Warsaw, The Telegraph reported on 16 August 2026.

The network expands Russia’s capacity for mass drone attacks on Ukraine, while some sites could later threaten NATO. The findings come as Russia is also expanding bases and other military infrastructure along NATO’s northern and Baltic borders. The Telegraph found no evidence that Moscow is planning such an attack.

Seven of the 10 sites were used during recent bombardments of Kyiv, tracking data cited by The Telegraph showed. Using leaked documents, satellite imagery, and DroneSec's analysis, the newspaper identified at least 59 launch rails—tracks that launch fixed-wing drones without runways.

Around 20 appeared long enough for Russia’s latest long-range models, while one base could reportedly store over 1,000 drones.

Leaked Ukrainian documents cited by The Telegraph say the jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 can carry 90-kilogram warheads. However, Ukrainian military intelligence puts the Geran-4’s range at up to 450 kilometers, while the larger Geran-5 has a stated range of up to 1,000 kilometers — enough to reach Warsaw from several of the new sites.

DroneSec founder Mike Monnik said expanded launch capacity and harder-to-intercept technology together increase pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.

Russia builds military infrastructure along NATO’s northern flank

Russia is also expanding military infrastructure elsewhere along NATO’s borders. A Nordic-Baltic investigation identified new or expanded infrastructure from Norway to Kaliningrad, with potential capacity for up to 115,000 personnel.

Satellite imagery showed new barracks, ammunition warehouses, and expanded bases near NATO’s northern and Baltic members.

The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, assessed that the construction likely supports future Russian operations against NATO rather than an imminent attack. Most Russian combat power remains committed to Ukraine, it said.

Other drone hubs support rapid Russian attacks

Russia has already built comparable hubs for attacks on Ukraine. Satellite imagery analyzed by the open-source intelligence group Strategic Aviation of Russia showed 10 additional launchers under construction at Tsymbulova in Oryol Oblast, following the start of work on 22 April 2026.

At occupied Donetsk Airport, the group identified enlarged launch pads, roads to a Geran and Gerbera drone warehouse, and the apparent construction of another storage building.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it struck Shahed storage and launch sites at Primorsko-Akhtarsk on 2 August 2025. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi reported hitting drone logistics, warhead-storage, and preparation facilities at Donetsk Airport on 30 December 2025.

Russia will keep escalating until Europe shows both the political will and the military capability to stop it, argues Hans Petter Midttun—and NATO can no longer supply either. In an interview with the Guildhall news agency, the former defense attaché to Ukraine makes the case for the Ukraine-anchored coalition he has argued for since long before this interview: Northern Europe together with Ukraine, credible from the day it is declared.

This interview was conducted in Russian by the Guildhall news agency and is republished here in an edited English translation. The subheadings are Euromaidan Press's.

Hans Petter Midttun is a non-resident research fellow at the Centre for Defence Strategies and a former defense attaché to Ukraine.

Why NATO no longer deters Russia

It seems that despite everything the West has done to deter Russia, the Russian threat to the West—particularly to the Baltic states and NATO members in general—is only increasing. What is your diagnosis? Why has the Western deterrence strategy failed, if you agree that it has?

Yes, I absolutely agree, and I have been saying this for quite some time.

To begin with, it is worth questioning your basic formulation—"the West." I have often used the term myself. Almost every time I write about what is happening, I use it. But recently I have begun to question whether it is still accurate.

If we regard the West as a civilization, as a strategic space, then we understand what we are talking about. Usually that means NATO and the European Union. But if we regard it as a political actor, as an entity responsible for deterrence, the situation becomes much more complicated.

For some time now I have questioned the viability of NATO. I am an officer myself, and I have been oriented toward NATO throughout my career. I have always believed in the Alliance. Almost everything I have done over nearly 40 years has been based on NATO doctrine, strategy, and tactics. But since 2022, I have seriously begun to question it. I have written publicly that I doubt the Alliance can survive in its current form. And I have said very clearly that it no longer deters Russia. I can prove it.

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I defended NATO’s values. I no longer recognize what NATO defends.

Please do.

There are three reasons I have pointed to repeatedly.

The first and most fundamental: if NATO were genuinely deterring Russia, Russia would never have invaded Ukraine. To most people that probably sounds strange, because under NATO's 2010 Strategic Concept, still in force in 2022, NATO was not obliged to defend Ukraine and had not declared any intention to. There was no commitment to Ukraine as such.

But the Strategic Concept stated clearly, under its second core task—crisis management—that in the event of a conflict threatening the security of the Alliance, NATO would use a combination of political and military instruments to manage and resolve it. What is happening in Ukraine is precisely such a conflict. It threatens the security of the Alliance, and the Alliance recognized this many years ago. So before the invasion, Russia must have looked at NATO and concluded it would not act.

The second point: if Russia were deterred, it would not be waging a constantly escalating hybrid war on NATO territory. It is already waging one. And, shamefully, NATO has not even acknowledged the fact. It talks in general terms, but it never calls what is happening what it is: a hybrid war, a campaign to undermine the Alliance. We are not acting on the basis of that reality.

The third point: if Russia were deterred, it would not now be preparing for a potential attack on NATO members.

So there are three very clear indicators that, whatever NATO believes about its own deterrence, Russia does not believe it. And that is what determines whether deterrence works. Deterrence is not determined in Washington or Brussels. It is determined in the Kremlin.

Why the answer cannot come from NATO

We still need to deter Russia from expanding its aggression further, including directly against NATO, which the Kremlin clearly regards as one possible scenario. How should the deterrence strategy be adjusted? What mechanisms need to be created?

Let me take one step back first, because I think it matters. I would argue this cannot be achieved through NATO. NATO will never be able to deter Russia. I would go further: NATO is no longer the solution. It has become part of the problem.

There are several reasons. During the Cold War, NATO took the risk of strategic miscalculation extremely seriously. If the Soviet Union provoked us—by sending a combat aircraft, a warship, or moving ground forces in our direction—NATO always responded. This was done to leave no room for miscalculation and no impression of local weaknesses the Soviet Union could exploit.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we stopped acting this way—despite the fact that, for roughly 15 years before the full-scale war, Russia was challenging us, testing us, and doing many of the things the Soviet Union once did. We lost our credibility.

On top of that, a transatlantic divide has opened—a rupture between Europe and the United States. We see an America that is no longer a reliable ally but is becoming more of a strategic opponent. America treats the European Union as an opponent, and that creates an entirely different strategic environment. We are talking about a former ally that threatens to seize NATO territory—Greenland—and talks about annexing Canada. All of it opens a window of opportunity for Russia that it could previously only have dreamed of.

Part of the responsibility lies with Europe too, because we did not take security and defense seriously enough. We did not invest. We are now extremely vulnerable, with critical weaknesses that can be exploited. So we are in a moment of weakness, and Russia understands it. Russia also understands that this window is limited in time, and that is precisely what raises the risk of more serious developments.

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Europe now faces two strategic adversaries: Russia and the United States

The coalition, and which countries would form it

I appreciate the deeper assessment, but that is still diagnosis. What is the treatment? What concrete steps need to be taken, and by whom, to deter Russia again?

I spent so long on the previous question because I wanted to completely destroy the notion that NATO will be the solution. It will not. That means we have to look for something else.

We need some of the qualities NATO had in the 1980s. At the height of the Cold War, the member states—there were 16 then—knew who the adversary was. They all saw it the same way. They understood its strategic goals, its doctrine, its capabilities, its theater of operations. So every state was committed to countering the threat. We invested in defense—Europe spent roughly 3.8 percent of GDP on it—and we had a common strategy. In a sense we were a coalition of the like-minded. That is what I advocate rebuilding.

But it also means that, initially, a significant share of NATO members, and possibly some EU members, would have to remain outside such a structure. If you want a structure built on a common understanding of the threat and unity of purpose, you have to accept that not all states share the same aspirations. That is why I have named a number of countries that should become its founding members, with the ultimate goal of including all of Europe. But we start with a group of the like-minded.

Which countries do you have in mind?

My argument begins here, and it is one of the reasons the coalition is necessary: Ukraine will never become a member of NATO. To be honest, that was already clear five, four, and three years ago. It is a shameful situation. But that is exactly the point. Europe needs strategic autonomy. We have to stand on our own feet and defend Europe ourselves. We can no longer rely on the United States, so we need to build something else.

I believe this coalition should be built around Ukraine and the NB8 countries—the Nordic-Baltic Eight—together with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands. Essentially, Northern Europe together with Ukraine. That configuration alone already creates enormous credibility. It would bring together not only Ukraine's battle-hardened armed forces—the Ground Forces, National Guard, Special Operations Forces, air defense, and Unmanned Systems Forces—but also high-tech European air forces, navies, and special operations forces. Almost immediately you have a structure with real credibility, because we share common values and a common understanding of how to fight Russia and how to defeat it. Simply announcing such a coalition would have a deterrent effect.

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The alliance Russia fears isn’t NATO. It’s a coalition that will actually fight.

What you are saying resonates with me. But the Russian threat exists here and now. Building full European strategic autonomy without the United States would take at least five years. What do we do in the meantime? How do we deter Russia now?

I would challenge that. I have heard the argument many times. We are not talking about forces that exist only on paper. The armed forces of the countries I named already exist today, and they are built on the same standards—NATO standards. We do not need to invent new ones. They share a doctrinal foundation and, in many respects, similar strategic approaches. We can use NATO technologies, standards, documents, doctrines, and research—everything the Alliance has already created is available to us. And Ukraine is already largely NATO-compatible. Will such a coalition be as effective today as it could be in five years? No. But Ukraine itself was not as effective five years ago as it is today.

The nuclear question

What about nuclear weapons? Full deterrence of Russia is hard to imagine without a nuclear component.

I would challenge that too. We have all grown accustomed to relying on the idea of nuclear deterrence. I am not saying it does not matter, and some of the states I named do possess a nuclear capability.

But not comparable to Russia's arsenal.

Yes, but it does not quite work that way, and that is the point. Both Russia and the United States have lost wars without using nuclear weapons. The consequences of using them are so catastrophic that the great powers—including China—regard the threshold as extremely high. You could argue Russia might not have attacked Ukraine if Ukraine had kept nuclear weapons. Possibly. But that is in the past. The war is already under way, and after years of it—after Ukraine has crossed practically every one of Russia's so-called red lines—Russia still has not used nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

So we cannot abandon the idea of a coalition simply because it lacks an arsenal comparable to Russia's. On the contrary: we have to recognize that the threshold for use is so high that the probability of actual use is extremely low. Not zero, but extremely low. And we are no longer talking only about deterring Russia. Russia is already at war with Europe and waging war on Ukraine. We are talking about how to end that war, with the tools we have. We cannot do it through NATO. We cannot rely on the United States to do it for us. So either we build something genuinely credible, or we accept that Russia will keep acting against us.

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Russia won’t start a nuclear war. It might cause a nuclear disaster.

Why it starts with a declaration

You said the cost of using nuclear weapons must be unacceptable to Russia. The same logic can apply to the conventional threat. What concrete steps can we take now to make the cost of further conventional aggression unacceptable to the Kremlin?

The solution is right in front of us. The starting point is what Ukraine itself has said many times: Russia will escalate for as long as we let it, and it responds to nothing but strength. So until we—the West, or the coalition, whichever term you prefer—stand up and demonstrate both the political will and the military capability to act, Russia will keep escalating.

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NATO is dead. Meet CALM.

That is why, when you asked about the timeline, I said: if these countries had united yesterday, today, or tomorrow and announced the creation of such a coalition and their intention to fight together, that alone would completely change Russia's strategic assessment.

Today Russia is fighting one country, Ukraine, supported by around 50 partner states. But it is still fighting only one country. If that declaration were made tomorrow, the situation would change radically. Russia already finds it difficult to fight Ukraine; it would face a fundamentally different reality if Ukraine formally joined a coalition with European military powers.

So this is not only about physical capabilities. It is about changing Russia's perception of its strategic environment. And it starts with a declaration.

The next step would be the actual conduct of military operations, if necessary. But it begins with the declaration. That would completely change Russia's strategic calculus.

Hans Petter Midttun

Hans Petter Midttun, independent analyst on hybrid warfare, Non-Resident Fellow at the Centre for Defense Strategies, board member of the Ukrainian Institute for Security and Law of the Sea, former Defense Attaché of Norway to Ukraine, and officer (R) of the Norwegian Armed Forces. 

A NATO fighter patrolling Baltic airspace shot down a drone over Latvia early Friday, the Latvian Armed Forces said, in the second Baltic-region drone incursion this week.

The interception happened over Balvi Municipality, near Latvia's borders with Belarus and Russia. Latvian officials said the drone entered the country's airspace after being knocked off course by Russian electronic warfare systems — not as a deliberate strike on Latvian territory. Russia has regularly bombarded Ukraine's Baltic-facing neighbors with stray drones since intensifying its own long-range strike campaign, and on 12 August, Romania detonated two Russian drones that washed up near its Black Sea gas field.

Latvian forces reported an "airspace threat" in four districts bordering Belarus and Russia shortly after 04:00, and announced the drone's destruction roughly 30 minutes later. Ieva Bērziņa, a representative of Latvia's Joint Armed Forces Staff, said the crash site had been located but its exact position was not being disclosed, and that debris may be scattered over a wide area because the drone was shot down at high altitude.

The incident coincided with a large-scale drone attack on Russian targets in Leningrad Oblast overnight.

This is not the first time drones have crossed into the Baltic states during Russian strikes on its own territory. In May, a drone that entered from Russia damaged fuel tanks at an oil depot in Rēzekne, about 40 kilometers from the border. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said in March that Russia was deliberately steering Ukrainian drones toward Baltic airspace using electronic warfare, adding that Moscow later uses the resulting incidents in information operations targeting the region.

Latvia is weighing the purchase of Brazilian-made A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft for counter-drone missions, funded through more than €1 billion the government has earmarked for stronger air defense.

Ukrainian drone operators overwhelmed US Army troops at a training exercise in Germany this year, the Wall Street Journal reported. The drill showed how far American forces still trail on the cheap front-line drones that dominate Russia's war on Ukraine, despite billions in Pentagon spending.

Drones now decide who moves and who dies along Ukraine's front, and Western armies are scrambling to master a way of fighting Kyiv rewrote under fire—some even copying its tools and procurement wholesale.

The dust gave them away

The exercise, Combined Resolve, ran in April and May. Around 3,500 US personnel, mostly from the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, tried to seize a position defended by an opposing force reinforced with Ukrainian drone troops of the 412th Regiment of Unmanned Systems Forces, or Nemesis. The Ukrainian operators "eliminated" the attacking armored brigade, US officials briefed on the drill told the Journal.

Heavy vehicles kicked up dust that reconnaissance drones caught at once. Explosive-dropping and first-person-view drones, flown straight into their targets, did the rest. Kills came so fast that US vehicles had to be "re-spawned" as fresh units to keep the drill running, a US official told the Journal.

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For first time, NATO ally built its entire military exercises around Ukrainian Azov Brigade lessons

Years of fighting Russia made the difference

Ukrainian crews have fought Russia for nearly four and a half years, repairing and adapting drones on the move, while US operators have never had to fix and arm them under fire, one person present told the Journal. Midway through, the Ukrainians switched sides and coached the Americans on attacking with drones. Eliot Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said mastering drones is now vital for the US military, and that so far it has not.

Not everyone agrees on why. Some US officers say drones dominate only because the front barely moves, and that maneuver warfare would revive the tank, the Journal noted. Ukraine's former commander-in-chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, argues drones have frozen maneuver for now, the reason the eastern front barely shifts.

Not the first Western army to lose

It keeps happening. Ukrainian drone teams beat British, Estonian, and other NATO troops, including Americans, at a Baltic exercise in May 2025, and outdid Swedish-led NATO forces this spring, the Journal reported. Back in 2023, a US officer training Ukrainians realized the lesson ran the other way.

What Washington is doing about it

The Trump administration, despite friction with Kyiv, has been reaching out to Ukraine, the Journal reported. It is testing Ukrainian drones it may buy, and used counter-drone tools proven in this war to defend its troops against Iran's drones. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in May that he was sending more Americans to study drone warfare in Ukraine. By Washington's own reckoning, no US maker can match Ukraine's combat-forged drones.

Russia may expand hybrid attacks against Poland and the Baltic states, including infrastructure sabotage or false-flag attacks, Bloomberg reported on 12 August, citing an unnamed European intelligence official. 

The warnings come amid concern that Moscow wants to intimidate Ukraine’s supporters. The CIA warning follows Russian threats, incursions, alleged sabotage plots, and disinformation against Poland and the Baltic states. Most Western military aid reaches Ukraine through Poland, while the Baltic states rank among Kyiv’s strongest supporters. Sabotage of transport, energy, or communications can slow aid delivery and test NATO while hiding Russia’s role.

Separately, a European government official told Bloomberg that the CIA had warned countries in the region of a possible future Russian attack. The CIA declined to comment.

The same official said Russia might instead be creating the impression of an impending attack to sow fear as part of an information operation. The official saw no signs that Moscow was preparing a conventional attack or invasion.

Moscow tests NATO’s eastern flank

Poland and Lithuania had already raised similar concerns. In July, Poland said it had credible intelligence that Russia was planning new provocations. Lithuania later warned that Moscow might rebuild captured Ukrainian drones for false-flag strikes on critical infrastructure.

In September 2025, between 19 and 23 Russian drones entered Polish airspace, shutting down airports and damaging buildings. Poland closed four airports as NATO aircraft responded.

Meanwhile, five people are on trial in Lithuania over attacks allegedly organized for Russian military intelligence in 2024, Bloomberg reported. Lithuania has reinforced infrastructure sites and deployed troops since June.

These warnings and incidents place the CIA alert within a wider pattern of pressure on NATO’s eastern flank and Ukraine’s supporters. 

How Russia strikes without starting a war

Bloomberg cited several recent unexplained drone incidents in Germany alongside the CIA warning. Citing Die Zeit, Euromaidan Press reported that an explosive-laden drone struck the wing of a parked Ukrainian An-124 at Leipzig-Halle airport and failed to detonate. A US Defense Department official in Europe told CNN that Washington assessed the drone belonged to Russian intelligence. 

Bloomberg also reported that a cargo plane hit an unidentified object and that drones appeared over a military base the following day. It did not connect either incident to Russia.

More broadly, Russian hybrid operations have grown sharply since the full-scale invasion. CSIS found that attacks in Europe tripled from 2023 to 2024, after quadrupling the previous year. Separately, the US Helsinki Commission mapped nearly 150 operations in NATO territory attributed to or suspected of Russia between February 2022 and November 2024.

Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges told Euromaidan Press in February that attacks on ports, railways, and cables can probe routes needed for NATO reinforcements. Their deniability raises the political cost of responding.

By hiding its role, Moscow can disrupt support for Ukraine and test NATO without openly starting a war. 

A combat drone exploded near a village on Moldova's border with Ukraine on 9 August, sparking a grass fire but hurting no one, Moldovan police said. Investigators recovered fragments and will examine them to establish the drone's type and origin. It was one of two blasts the war pushed across Europe's borders in two days, with Bulgaria fielding a separate drone explosion and summoning Ukraine's ambassador.

A drone down in a Moldovan field

The blast rang out around 13:20 near Crocmaz, in Moldova's Ștefan Vodă district in the southeast, and set dry grass alight, NewsMaker reported. The village lies on the Dniester, upstream of Ukraine's Dniester estuary.

Firefighters and patrols confirmed no civilians were hurt and no homes were damaged. Police found fragments that they preliminarily identified as parts of a combat drone. Those pieces will undergo a ballistic-technical examination to determine the drone's exact type, its affiliation, and how it fell. Crocmaz sits right on the Ukrainian border. The district council posted photos of the object and told residents to avoid the cordoned area and report any fragments to the 112 line.

The blast came amid an assault on Odesa

The drone fell hours after Russia hit Odesa with missiles and drones overnight on 9 August. Much of Moldova's eastern border runs along Odesa Oblast, so wreckage from the war often drifts across. Russian drones have crashed on Moldovan soil during such attacks before. Whether this one was Russian or something else is for the examination to show.

A parallel case in Bulgaria

Also today, Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's ambassador, Olesia Ilashchuk, over a drone that exploded on 8 August near the Romanian border, by a Trans-Balkan gas pipeline compressor station, Bulgarian National Television reported. Its defense bloc said the drone was likely a Ukrainian decoy, with no sign it was launched on purpose. 

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Lithuania's military intelligence warned that Russia is considering using captured Ukrainian drones for false flag attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region, LRT reported. Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirmed the assessment and called the scenario "probably the most realistic" form of Russian provocation against the region. Lithuania has reinforced security at key infrastructure sites and deployed military forces since June.

Russia's false flag playbook with captured drone parts

Moscow could reassemble crashed and intercepted Ukrainian drone wreckage into functioning devices and launch them at targets in the Baltic states, Kaunas told reporters on 6 August. The goal: create confusion about who launched the strike and avoid accountability for hitting NATO territory.

"We have data that Russia is considering conducting unconventional kinetic attacks against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region," Kaunas said. "It is likely that Russia could use Ukrainian-made drones for this purpose."

The Baltic region. Map: Euromaidan Press

The mechanism exploits a byproduct of Ukraine's drone war against Russia. As Ukrainian long-range drones hit oil infrastructure and military targets deep inside Russia, some are intercepted or crash. Russia collects the wreckage. 

"Russia possesses some of those parts and drone fragments and is capable of assembling them into a functioning device," Kaunas said. "The theoretical possibility that such drones could be used in a false flag operation exists."

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Kaunas emphasized no decision to launch such an operation had been detected. 

"We are talking about a false flag operation in which a fake Ukrainian drone could be used. At this point, that is probably the most realistic scenario."

The false flag warning follows a pattern of Ukrainian drones entering Baltic airspace after being diverted by Russian electronic warfare. NATO fighter jets shot down such drones over Latvia and Estonia this spring, and Lithuania shut Vilnius airport after detecting a drone crossing from Belarus.

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Multiple NATO allies see the same intelligence

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda had earlier raised concerns about possible conventional and sabotage strikes targeting the country's transport and energy networks. Kaunas echoed that message and pointed to a broader pattern across the alliance's eastern flank.

"Other NATO countries have repeatedly made it very clear that they see it, hear it, know about it, and have warned Russia not to do it," Kaunas said. He did not identify specific targets or a timeline for any potential attack.

Russia claimed the Baltic states open air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes—without producing evidence. Russia also threatened NATO member Latvia with retaliation over the accusations. Nausėda publicly rejected Moscow's claims.

NATO upgraded its Baltic Air Policing rules of engagement in July, giving fighter jets authority to shoot down objects that pose a threat. Russia's military aircraft probed NATO's eastern flank so aggressively in July that scrambles jumped more than 250%.

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NATO scrambled fighter jets to intercept Russian planes far more often over its eastern flank this July than a year earlier, the alliance's Allied Joint Force Command in Brunssum announced on 5 August. Each scramble is a launch to intercept an unidentified aircraft. The command linked the surge to Russian military planes repeatedly probing the edges of allied airspace.

Russian pressure on NATO's eastern edge has built for years, but this summer the alliance changed how it answers: it gave pilots authority that includes destroying "objects that pose a threat," ending a peacetime escort format that had held since 2004. More probing now meets a harder line.

Compared with July 2025, these scrambles rose by more than 250%, the command said.

"Russian military aircraft repeatedly flew close to NATO airspace without a flight plan and transponder signal, leaving our fighters to launch, intercept, and identify them," it added.

Polish jets keep meeting Russian spy planes over the Baltic

The report landed amid a run of intercepts near the Baltic Sea. Poland's Defense Ministry, under Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, reported its fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance plane on 4 August, 56 kilometers northwest of Koszalin in West Pomeranian Voivodeship.

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A day earlier, the minister reported, Polish crews had caught another Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic near Łeba, its transponder off. Allied pilots have run similar missions for months: French and Swedish jets met six Russian aircraft over the Baltic in a single day in June, and crews scrambled through last fall to track flights between mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad exclave.

What are the surge forces on the alliance

Every unannounced flight burns allied flight hours and holds interceptors on standby. NATO members have already fired on Russian drones crossing their skies this summer, and the more often crewed planes go dark near the border, the higher the odds a close encounter escalates. The odds of a close encounter that escalates.

US negotiators have quietly kept a deal to let Ukraine help build Patriot interceptor missiles alive, even after US President Donald Trump publicly cast doubt on it, Reuters reported. Four people familiar with the talks said Washington never ordered them stopped. Ukraine, running low on air defenses, urgently wants the missiles to blunt Russia's growing ballistic strikes.

Russian daily drone attacks forced Kyiv to chase air defense from every direction at once, including home-grown interceptors. But this year, Moscow has increasingly turned to ballistic missiles, the hardest weapons for Ukraine to stop. US-supplied PAC-3 interceptors fired by Patriot systems are among the few weapons that can reliably shoot them down, and Ukraine has now run out.

The talks Trump seemed to kill

Last week, Trump appeared to reverse course, telling reporters the US had not agreed to let Ukraine build Patriots and must be "very careful about letting somebody build them." 

According to Reuters, two sources tied that to a tense White House meeting with Zelenskyy. Yet the negotiations pressed on. 

"No order was given to halt the discussions," one source said, adding that talks continued with US arms makers and military officials.

Matthew Whitaker, Washington's envoy to NATO, is leading the drive for a deal. He visited Kyiv last month to weigh options with Ukrainian officials and weapons executives. His spokesperson framed the trip around drone collaboration that would benefit US forces, without naming the Patriot plan. 

A senior administration official told Reuters that any agreement must protect US technology. 

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What Ukraine could build

The options include making Patriot components in Ukraine and shipping them to Germany for final assembly, the sources said. A US official called that the most feasible route. Germany already produces an older Patriot model, and the advanced PAC-3, the newest Patriot interceptor, is expected to follow.

Ukraine could instead join an existing US-European Patriot program, or build a cheaper version of the PAC-3. 

It might also tap Lockheed Martin's new lower-cost interceptor, the PAC-3 ACE, unveiled last month.

A promise made, then pulled back

During a meeting with Zelenskyy in Ankara last month, Trump said the US would license Ukraine to make PAC-3s. His later reversal caught many off guard, including Zelenskyy. In a follow-up call, US Vice President JD Vance assured him that deals between presidents would hold, one source said.

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Ukraine's clock is running

Even with a deal, Ukraine would not receive newly built interceptors for a year or more. So Kyiv is urging allies to hand over some of theirs and exploring swaps to get missiles sooner. 

Earlier, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine had run out of Patriots. That day, it intercepted just one of 27 ballistic missiles Russia fired. 

Global stocks of high-end interceptors have shrunk since the Iran war, with Patriots once bound for Ukraine diverted to US forces and Gulf allies.

Ukraine's ambassador to the UK and former army chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has explained his widely reported remark that Ukraine will never join NATO, saying he strongly backs the Alliance but believes it must rebuild its outdated doctrine before it could even admit Kyiv, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The war, he argued, has pushed Ukraine technologically ahead of the bloc.

Ukraine's push for lasting security now runs on several tracks at once — NATO membership, European guarantees, and its own rising weight as a security provider whose battlefield lessons allies increasingly want.

The remark that went in circles

Days earlier, at an ambassadors' meeting in Kyiv, Zaluzhnyi said Ukraine would never join NATO as things stand, arguing it cannot join an organization that still holds Second World War-era doctrines — a line that drew wide attention. 

He recalled 12 years chasing NATO standards while hearing yearly "fairy tales" about imminent membership. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry later said the words had been taken out of context.

"I am for NATO"

Asked to explain himself at a diplomatic club in Kyiv, Zaluzhnyi said he is firmly a supporter of the Alliance. He noted he led the 2019 shift of Ukraine's forces to NATO standards, rewriting almost 37 laws. 

"I made so many enemies you cannot even imagine. I am for NATO," he said.

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Why he says NATO must change

Politically, though, "NATO raises many questions, as a bloc that guarded the old world," he said. In 2026, Ukraine used nearly every weapon NATO fields — save Tomahawks, nuclear arms, aircraft carriers, and F-35 jets — and applied their doctrines in combat. 

"The resource is exhausted. Russia found a counter to all of it," he said. NATO, he added, "is in the doctrine of the end of the Second World War, while we are technologically ahead."

Only once the Alliance adopts a completely new doctrine, Zaluzhnyi said, will it be ready to admit Ukraine. He again called for "an absolutely new" security bloc, likely anchored in Europe, citing the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force as a model. 

The United States is reorganizing its Security Assistance Group-Ukraine (SAG-U), shifting greater responsibility for coordinating military assistance to European allies while maintaining support for Kyiv, US European Command (USEUCOM) announced on 3 August.

The changes affect the division of responsibilities between SAG-U, US military components, and NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU). According to USEUCOM, the reorganization is intended to improve the efficiency of military assistance while transferring leadership of key elements of the mission to allied countries.

Established in November 2022 following Russia's full-scale invasion, the headquarters oversees long-term security assistance for Ukraine, including coordinating equipment deliveries, training Ukrainian forces, and sharing battlefield lessons learned with US and NATO militaries.

Pentagon says support for Ukraine will continue

USEUCOM said the reorganization "will not impact US support for Ukraine" and would free US resources for other global priorities while recognizing Europe's growing role in supporting Ukraine's defense.

"Allies have shown that they can take the lead in support of Ukraine's defense," USEUCOM commander Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich said.

"SAG-U was always meant to be a temporary command. Its transition builds on the progress that we have already seen, helping to set conditions for lasting peace in Ukraine."

US Army Europe and Africa spokesperson Col. Michael Weisman similarly said the reorganization "does not diminish our support or commitment to Ukraine" and that Washington would continue coordinating assistance through USEUCOM and NSATU in line with US policy.

Shift follows broader push for Europe to take the lead

The announcement follows reports that the Pentagon plans to hand leadership of SAG-U to another NATO member over the coming year while retaining a US deputy commander, a move reported by Politico.

According to the outlet, the transition forms part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to shift more responsibility for European security onto NATO allies. The administration has previously reduced US leadership roles within NATO's command structure and has repeatedly called on European countries to assume a greater share of the burden for Ukraine's defense and the alliance's collective security.

USEUCOM likewise said the realignment reflects Europe's leading role in supporting Ukraine over the past year.

USEUCOM said SAG-U has distributed more than $2 billion in security assistance over the past three and a half years while coordinating military aid from allied and partner nations.

One of Ukraine's most respected generals has said out loud that the country's constitutional goal of NATO membership will never happen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to Britain, does not see Kyiv's path to NATO membership, he said in a discussion on Euro-Atlantic integration at a meeting of ambassadors in Kyiv, European Pravda reports.

The statement is striking because of who made it and from where. Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief, is, as ambassador to a leading NATO member, formally part of the machinery pursuing the alliance path.

"I know NATO very well. For about 12 years, I personally worked on us mastering NATO standards and listened every year to fairy tales that said that any moment now we'd join NATO. Unfortunately, we will never join it," he said.

His case against joining

Zaluzhnyi argued the obstacle runs both ways. Ukraine cannot join at the level of development its Armed Forces have reached, "an organization that holds the doctrines of the Second World War," he said, dismissing NATO's capabilities despite the membership of Britain, the US, and others.

He was blunt about the alliance's trajectory. NATO will most likely stay in the same form it is now, he said, and would need 12 years, as Ukraine has, to reach the standards required to match even half the Russian level.

Despite this assessment, Zaluzhnyi acknowledged that "Ukraine needs technologies that are currently still held by NATO countries, including in areas such as anti-ballistic missile defense and space capabilities."

What he proposes instead

That view aligns Ukraine's security future with the European defense architecture now under discussion, the coalition of the willing, and the anti-ballistic coalitions Ukraine has helped assemble, rather than with the transatlantic alliance.

Zaluzhnyi's remarks are his own assessment, delivered in a diplomatic discussion, and Ukraine's official policy remains the constitutional Euro-Atlantic course.

A drone entered Romanian airspace near the Danube Delta on 2 August, prompting the Romanian Air Force to scramble F-16 fighter jets and issue an air raid alert for residents in Tulcea County before the aircraft re-entered Ukraine, where it was shot down by Ukrainian forces.

The incident comes a week after Romania shot down three drones during Russian attacks on Ukraine that crossed into its airspace, ending years of merely escorting such intrusions. 

Romania's Ministry of National Defence said radar detected the aerial target near the country's river border with Ukraine at 15:09 local time. Two F-16s from the 86th Air Base at Borcea took off eight minutes later to monitor the situation, while authorities sent a RO-Alert warning to residents in Tulcea County.

According to the ministry, the drone flew for about 20 minutes over Romania's territorial waters and along the Sulina branch of the Danube while remaining in Romanian airspace before crossing back into Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces subsequently shot down the drone, Romanian authorities said.

Drone debris lands near Romanian border

Romania said drone debris fell on agricultural land near the village of Periprava, around one kilometer from the Ukrainian border.

No casualties or property damage were reported, and the air raid alert for Tulcea County was lifted at 16:05.

The Romanian military did not identify the drone or say whether it had entered Romanian airspace intentionally or while flying toward targets in Ukraine.

Latest in a series of cross-border incidents

The incident comes just a week after Romania abandoned its long-standing practice of merely monitoring drones that entered its airspace during Russian attacks on Ukraine.

Between 24 and 26 July, Romanian F-16s shot down three drones that violated the country's airspace – the first known interceptions of their kind by the Romanian Air Force. Romanian prosecutors later identified at least one of the aircraft as a Russian Shahed attack drone, prompting Bucharest to prepare a formal diplomatic protest to Moscow.

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Romania's shift reflects growing concern over repeated Russian drone incursions during attacks on Ukraine's Danube ports, which lie just across the river from NATO territory. Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, drone debris has repeatedly fallen on Romanian soil, and in May a Russian Geran-2 drone struck a residential building in Galați, injuring civilians.

Unlike the previous three incidents, Romanian fighters did not engage the drone on 2 August, with Ukrainian forces ultimately shooting it down after it left Romanian airspace.

In anticipation of a potential war with Russia, the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands has begun reserving space for NATO ships carrying military cargo and is mapping out logistics routes for weapons transfers, the Financial Times reported on July 8.

The decision comes as NATO allies increasingly warn of the risk of a large-scale war with Russia within five years. Rotterdam has previously handled weapons shipments, but this marks the first time that it will designate a special berth for military use.

Part of the container terminal will be repurposed to ensure the safe transfer of ammunition and other equipment between vessels. Military supply logistics will be coordinated with the port of Antwerp in neighboring Belgium.

"We see each other less and less as competitors," Boudewijn Siemons, Chief Executive of the Port of Rotterdam Authority, said, referring to the port of Antwerp.

"If large volumes of military goods would have to be shipped, we'd look to Antwerp or other ports to take over some capacity and the other way around."

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Siemons added that not all terminals are equipped to handle military-grade cargo, making the logistical coordination crucial, particularly for shipments from the U.S., U.K., and Canada.

In May, the Dutch Defense Ministry confirmed that space would be allocated for military supplies at NATO's request. The move is part of broader efforts by European allies to reduce dependence on the U.S. for defense logistics.

Russia's military spending has surged amid its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Moscow's 2024 defense budget rose by 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined total of all European countries.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on July 5 that a Chinese military move against Taiwan could prompt Beijing to encourage Russia to open a second front against NATO states.

Rutte has repeatedly warned that Russia could rebuild its military capabilities fast enough to pose a direct threat to NATO territory, urging allied governments to act swiftly and decisively.

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The Kyiv IndependentLiliane Bivings

If China attacks Taiwan, Beijing may ask Moscow to open a second front against NATO states, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with The New York Times (NYT) published on July 5.

Fears of escalating Chinese military intervention in Taiwan have risen sharply since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has served as a possible model of how both Taipei and the international community might respond if Beijing decides to invade.

"There's an increasing realization, and let's not be naive about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, 'Hey, I'm going to do this, and I need you to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory,'" Rutte said.

"That is most likely the way this will progress. And to deter them, we need to do two things. One is that NATO, collectively, being so strong that the Russians will never do this. And second, working together with the Indo-Pacific — something President (Donald) Trump is very much promoting," Rutte added.

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments.

Rutte previously warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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The Kyiv IndependentAsami Terajima

Europe must dramatically ramp up its defenses against a resurgent Russia, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in an interview with the New York Times published on July 5, crediting U.S. President Donald Trump for driving the alliance to unprecedented levels of commitment.

Rutte, who assumed his role late last year after 14 years as Prime Minister of the Netherlands, has been navigating NATO through a period marked by Russia's expansionist ambitions and questions about the reliability of the United States as an ally.

"Russia is reconstituting itself at a pace and a speed which is unparalleled in recent history," he told the outlet, adding that "...they are now producing three times as much ammunition in three months as the whole of NATO is doing in a year. This is unsustainable, but the Russians are working together with the North Koreans, with the Chinese and Iranians, the mullahs, in fighting this unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine."

He emphasized the interconnectedness of security across different regions, noting that a secure Arctic is vital due to increased Chinese and Russian activity, and a secure Atlantic is "crucial" for the U.S. "If the Arctic, if the Atlantic Ocean, if Europe is not secure, the U.S. has a big problem," Rutte said, arguing that Russia is ultimately aiming to attack the U.S.

The Secretary General strongly dismissed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's comments that NATO's new defense spending targets would "bankrupt" members.

"I know Sergey Lavrov very well. He has been foreign minister of Russia since the birth of Jesus Christ, and I’ve never taken him seriously. When you talk about fake news, listen to Sergey Lavrov," Rutte told the NYT. He believes Lavrov's comments are "clearly evidence that the deterrence is working."

Rutte acknowledged concerns about the defense industrial output across the alliance, adding that, "we simply lack the defense industrial base to produce the weapons we need to make sure that we can deter the Russians or the North Koreans or whoever to attack us." He underscored the importance of not just financial investment, but also having sufficient personnel and industrial capacity to effectively utilize weaponry.

On the subject of Ukraine, Rutte confirmed that European allies have significantly increased their financial commitment. "The Europeans have now cobbled together $35 billion in military aid this year to deliver to Ukraine, which is more than last year," he said. He viewed this as a logical and fair shift, with the U.S. expecting Europeans to "take more of the burden when it comes to the concrete support to Ukraine."

While acknowledging the complex discussions surrounding peace talks, Rutte recognized President Donald Trump's role in initiating dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"He is the one who broke the deadlock with Putin. When he became president in January, he started these discussions with Putin, and he was the only one who was able to do this. This had to happen. A direct dialogue between the American president and the president of the Russian Federation."

However, Rutte admitted that subsequent peace talks in Istanbul involved Russia sending a less serious delegation, leading to the conclusion that "we are not there yet, and that means that in the meantime you have to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to stay in the fight."

Despite some perceived divergences in approach between NATO and the U.S. regarding peace talks, Rutte insisted on the American administration's commitment to the conflict's importance.

"The American administration completely takes the view and shares it with the Europeans that this war in Ukraine is crucial for the defense of NATO territory going forward and that we have to make sure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to stop the Russians from taking more territory, and that when it comes to a cease-fire or, even better, a peace deal, that Ukraine with some help will be able to prevent Putin from ever attacking Ukraine again in the future."

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The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

U.S. Air Force General Alexus G. Grynkewich assumed command as the 21st Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) on July 4 during a ceremony at Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte presided over the handover, commending outgoing U.S. Army General Christopher G. Cavoli for his contributions to modernizing NATO's collective defense and bolstering support for Ukraine.

Rutte highlighted Cavoli's efforts to strengthen NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea in response to threats to critical undersea infrastructure and credited him with conceiving and establishing NATO’s new command in Germany to enhance assistance to Ukraine. He also noted Cavoli's role in refocusing the Alliance on collective defense following the 2022 Madrid Summit, where NATO adopted a new Strategic Concept in response to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Cavoli played a central role in developing and securing approval for NATO’s regional defense plans at the 2023 Vilnius Summit—a significant overhaul of the Alliance’s military posture since the Cold War.

His tenure also included the integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO’s military structures, expanding the Alliance’s strategic reach. In 2024, Cavoli oversaw "Steadfast Defender," NATO’s largest military exercise since the Cold War, involving approximately 90,000 troops practicing large-scale reinforcement across the eastern flank and validating a new high-readiness force model.

Rutte specifically acknowledged Cavoli's leadership in rapidly reinforcing NATO's Baltic Sea presence during threats to underwater infrastructure and for establishing the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), which continues to support Ukraine.

The secretary general welcomed General Grynkewich, noting that, as a former fighter pilot, he brings "a deep understanding of the threats we face from the skies, and across other domains." Rutte added that Grynkewich’s recent role as Director of Operations of the Joint Staff provides him with broad experience in advancing military and security priorities amid global challenges.

Allied Command Operations—responsible for planning and executing all NATO operations—now falls under General Grynkewich's command, a position first held by General Dwight D. Eisenhower.

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The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Hodunova

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on July 4 called on the United States to show "flexibility" in its military aid to Ukraine, after Washington unexpectedly paused some weapon deliveries citing concerns over dwindling domestic stockpiles.

The Pentagon's decision to halt transfers of artillery rounds and air defense systems coincides with a significant escalation in Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities, exposing critical vulnerabilities in Ukraine's air defense capabilities as current US funding nears expiration this summer.

"The US has to make sure that the stockpiles are at the level we need for the U.S. to have, because they are crucial for our collective defense," Rutte told reporters on July 4. "At the same time, of course, we hope for the flexibility, we have to make sure also that Ukraine can move forward."

The Pentagon announced the aid pause this week, citing a review of U.S. stockpiles as it assesses the need to conserve weapons for other potential security threats. This move comes as Russia intensified its air campaign, unleashing record drone and missile strikes on Kyiv and other major urban centers overnight.

President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone Friday, aiming to persuade the U.S. leader to resume deliveries and increase weapon sales to the country. Trump expressed disappointment following his latest conversation with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, which produced no progress toward a ceasefire in Russia's war against Ukraine, now in its fourth-year.

Given Russia's apparent unwillingness to pursue a ceasefire, allies must "be sure" Ukraine "has what it needs to stay in the fight," Rutte emphasized. He spoke after a ceremony welcoming Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, the new commander of U.S. military forces in Europe and top NATO military commander.

Grynkewich acknowledged the ongoing discussions, adding: "We’ll see more play out of the next week or two." He also announced a 90-day review of U.S. forces in Europe, examining potential future US posture in the region.

A broader US military review is expected later this summer, potentially outlining significant reductions in Europe. This prospect has already raised concerns among European NATO allies, who say they have received no prior information about these plans.

Death of top Russian oil executive fuels fresh scrutiny of elite’s ‘window falls’

The unexplained death of a top Russian oil executive on July 4 is fueling renewed scrutiny over the rising number of high-profile Russian officials and businessmen who have died under mysterious circumstances, specifically, have fallen out of windows. Andrei Badalov, vice president of Transneft, Russia’s largest state-controlled pipeline transport company,

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

Germany is weighing a massive defense procurement plan worth up to 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) to supply thousands of combat vehicles for NATO's expanding force structure, Bloomberg reported on July 4, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.  

The proposed purchases are part of a broader pan-European effort to boost deterrence against Russia, as Western leaders warn of the growing risk of a large-scale war within five years.

Berlin is reportedly considering purchasing up to 2,500 GTK Boxer armored vehicles and up to 1,000 Leopard 2 battle tanks. The purchase would equip up to seven new brigades that Germany has pledged to form under NATO's force generation plans for the next decade.

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The Leopard 2 tanks are produced by KNDS Deutschland and Rheinmetall, while the Boxer is made by ARTEC, a joint venture of the same companies. Leopard 2 tanks have been supplied to Ukraine and tested in combat.

Final pricing and quantities are still under negotiation, and the projected cost could fall below 25 billion euros ($29.4 billion) depending on procurement timelines and contract terms.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and top Bundeswehr officials are reviewing the plans, with legislative approval expected by the end of the year, Bloomberg reported.

Germany has faced pressure from NATO and Washington to meet its alliance commitments, including the newly adopted pledge to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense by 2035.

The initiative, endorsed on June 25 at the NATO summit, reflects concern over Russia's wartime economy, military buildup, and destabilization efforts across Europe.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on July 2 that he understands Washington's need to safeguard its own defense needs, but emphasized that Ukraine urgently requires sustained Western support.

"I totally understand that the U.S. always has to make sure its interests are covered," Rutte told Fox News. "When it comes to Ukraine, in the short term, Ukraine cannot do without all the support it can get."

His remarks come as the U.S. Defense Department has halted deliveries of key weapons systems previously promised to Kyiv, including Patriot missiles, precision-guided artillery shells, Hellfire missiles, and munitions compatible with F-16 fighter jets.

The White House confirmed the pause in shipments, citing a broader reassessment of U.S. military stockpiles. No new U.S. military aid packages have been approved since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January.

"I understand the U.S. has to take care of its stockpiles, and at the same time, we have to allow for some flexibility here," Rutte said. "Europeans, in the meantime, are really stepping up."

Military aid delays will ‘encourage Russia to continue war,’ Ukraine tells US envoy

Ukraine warned that “any delay or hesitation in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities will only encourage Russia to continue war and terror, rather than pursue peace.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

During last week's NATO summit in The Hague, Trump and President Volodymyr Zelensky met behind closed doors. Rutte described the conversation as "a very good discussion, particularly focusing on air defense systems."

The reporting of paused deliveries comes as Ukraine faces one of the heaviest barrages of Russian drone and missile strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry responded by saying it has not received formal notification of delays or cancellations and has requested urgent consultations with U.S. defense officials.

The Foreign Ministry summoned U.S. Charge d'Affaires John Ginkel the same day, warning that any hesitation in maintaining Ukraine's defense capabilities would embolden Russia.

The Kremlin welcomed the halt in arms shipments, saying it brings the war closer to an war.

"The fewer weapons that are supplied to Ukraine, the closer the end of the (war)," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in response to the information.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has previously indicated that the upcoming defense budget will scale back long-term military support for Ukraine, reflecting a shift in Washington's priorities.

‘Ukraine is biggest landmine challenge since World War II,’ says head of world’s largest demining organization

Russia’s full-scale invasion may have turned Ukraine into the world’s largest minefield. As of March 2025, Ukraine’s mine-affected land spans an estimated 139,000 square kilometers — or 23% of its territory — covering more ground than all of Greece and posing an immense threat to civilian life and recovery efforts.

The Kyiv IndependentDaria Shulzhenko

Norway will send F-35 fighter jets to Poland in the fall to protect the Rzeszow-Yasenka airport, one of the key transportation hubs for NATO military aid to Ukraine, Norwegian Defense Ministry announced on June 30.

The news came as Russia has escalated attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

Norway is thus strengthening its contribution to NATO's air and missile defense, while the main goal of the mission is to support the protection of Polish airspace and a key logistics center for assistance to Ukraine, the statement read.

"This is a vital contribution. We are helping ensure that support to Ukraine reaches its destination, and that Ukraine can continue its fight for freedom," Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Sandvik said.

The Rzeszow-Jasionka airport is located less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the Ukrainian border and transports a significant percentage of Western materiel bound for the front lines in Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that 90% of aid for Ukraine was going through the airport in Rzeszow as of Novermber 2024.

It is also a main stopover point for foreign leadership traveling to Kyiv on official visits.

In January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Berlin will deploy the promised Patriot air defenses around the Polish airport to protect it.

Smashing previous monthly record, Russia launches 5,337 kamikaze drones against Ukraine during June

Russia launched a record 5,337 Shahed-type drones against Ukraine in June, according to data from the Ukrainian Air Force and Dragon Capital, smashing the previous record of 4,198 set in March. Russia’s bombardments, a fact of life after three years of full-scale war, have intensified dramatically in May

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

NATO's increased defense spending will lead to the "collapse" of the alliance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on June 30, despite Russian officials recently warning that Moscow's own military expenditure is driving the country towards recession.

Lavrov's comments come after NATO leaders last week approved a new defense spending benchmark, committing members to spend at least 5% of GDP on defense and security-related expenditures by 2035, a goal long pushed by the U.S. and endorsed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The week previously, and in a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials issued separate warnings about the state of the country's economy.

Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin's full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on June 26 said an arms race between Russia and NATO could lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin's downfall.

"Since (Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski) is such a predictor, he probably foresees that a catastrophic increase in the budget of NATO countries, according to my estimates, will also lead to the collapse of this organization," Lavrov reportedly said.

Putin last week announced that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members' plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

"We are planning to reduce defence spending. For us, next year and the year after, over the next three-year period, we are planning for this," Putin said, though he did not provide concrete details.

"Europe is thinking about how to increase its spending, on the contrary. So, who is preparing for some kind of aggressive actions? Us or them?"

Western officials and analysts point to Russia's surging military expenditures amid its ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, Russia's defense budget reportedly rose 42% in real terms, reaching $462 billion, surpassing the combined spending of all European nations, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

NATO allies have cited Russia's military buildup, sabotage campaigns, and continued aggression against Ukraine as reasons to accelerate defense investments. Rutte warned that Russia could rebuild its military capacity to threaten NATO territory within five years, urging members to act with urgency.

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More than three years into Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, many Western cultural institutions that had distanced themselves from Russian artists as a gesture of solidarity with Ukraine are now reversing course. The U.K.’s Royal Ballet and Opera House announced on June 23 that its 2025-2026 cinema

The Kyiv IndependentKate Tsurkan

German fighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea near NATO airspace on the morning of June 27, the German tabloid Bild reported.

The incident adds to a series of aerial provocations reported by NATO allies since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as Moscow is suspected of using the aircraft to spy on the alliance's positions.

The Russian Il-20M, which took off from Kaliningrad with its transponder switched off, was headed west toward international airspace near Poland and Germany when it was detected by NATO radar systems.

NATO alerted the German Armed Forces’ Quick Reaction Team (QRT), prompting the launch of two Eurofighter jets to intercept the aircraft.

The German jets made visual contact with the Russian plane approximately 100 kilometers off the German coast and took a photograph of it. Despite the interception, the Il-20M did not alter its course.

The Russian aircraft eventually veered north, just 40 kilometers from the Baltic Sea island of Usedom, avoiding a breach of German airspace.

According to Bild, this was the ninth such interception mission conducted by German forces in 2025.

As Russia continues its aggression against Ukraine and poses an increasing threat to NATO, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung published on June 27 that he would refrain from phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin given the intensified attacks on Ukraine.

Merz’s predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was the first EU leader from a country supporting Ukraine to resume direct contact with Putin since the start of the full-scale invasion, speaking with him by phone in November 2024.

Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea air base destroys 3 Russian helicopters, SBU claims

The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 27 that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members' plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

Putin's claims will likely be met with harsh skepticism from Western officials as Russia's military spending has continued to increase throughout its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent cannot verify claims made by Putin. The Russian president did not provide any specifics as to how Moscow plans to cut military spending, but added there has yet to be an agreement between ministries.

"We are planning to reduce defence spending. For us, next year and the year after, over the next three-year period, we are planning for this," Putin told reporters during a visit to Belarus. "Europe is thinking about how to increase its spending, on the contrary. So who is preparing for some kind of aggressive actions? Us or them?" Putin continued.

Putin's comments comes as NATO allies are increasingly concerned about Russia's military capabilities, including future threats to alliance members as well as ongoing sabotage efforts.

On June 25, NATO member states agreed to a new defense spending benchmark, committing to allocate 5% of their GDP annually to defense and security-related expenditures by 2035.

The decision comes as NATO allies increasingly believe Russia could rebuild sufficient military capacity to challenge the alliance within five years, with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warning that allies must act urgently to prepare for future threats.

"We see Russia's deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day. We must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks," Rutte said during a press briefing on June 23. "Our security environment has changed, and not for the better. The threats we face today demand that we do far more," he added.

Various European intelligence agencies as well as officials have increasingly delivered dire warnings about the threat emanating from Russia and Europe's current lack of preparedness. German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl told a parliamentary hearing in October that Russia will have the military capabilities to be able to attack NATO by 2030.

In 2024, Russia’s military spending surpassed the combined defense budgets of all European nations. Russia’s total defense expenditures surged by 42% in real terms amounting to $462 billion, according to the data by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

By comparison, total defense spending across Europe, including the U.K. and EU member states, increased by nearly 12% last year to $457 billion, slightly trailing Moscow’s budget.

The Moscow Times reported in December that the Kremlin had spent an unprecedented $43 billion in the third quarter of 2024 alone.

‘Putin cannot stop’ – Estonian foreign minister says war in Ukraine existential for Russian president

As Russia continues to intensify its onslaught on Ukraine more than three years into the full-scale invasion, Kyiv faces a new challenge – keeping its Western allies, namely the new U.S. administration, engaged in the struggle. This became clear during the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24-25, where

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

U.S. President Donald Trump promised during the NATO summit in The Hague that Russia would never attack the alliance while he is in office, the Washington Post reported on June 26, citing three unnamed European officials.

Speaking at a briefing in The Hague a day earlier, Trump, however, did not rule out that Russia has territorial ambitions beyond Ukraine.

"It's possible," he said.

Still, the U.S. president immediately downplayed Moscow's threat and aggression against Ukraine, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin was "misguided."

Foreign officials and EU diplomats have increasingly called for the preparation for a potential full-scale conflict between NATO and Russia.

Trump's remarks came days after President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine's intelligence has proof that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe and just a week after Putin declared "all of Ukraine is ours."

During the summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to be realistic about the threats posed by Russia and China. Previously, he warned that Russia could be ready to launch an attack against the alliance within five years.

Amid rising threats from Russia, NATO member states have agreed to a new defense spending benchmark, committing to allocate 5% of their gross domestic product annually to defense and security-related expenditures by 2035.

In early June, German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said Russia may try to test NATO’s unity with provocations beyond Ukraine, as some Russian officials believe that the alliance's collective defense principle no longer works.

Putin under pressure to declare war on Ukraine, but experts say Russia isn’t ready

Despite suffering over 1 million casualties, pounding Ukrainian cities nightly with missiles and drones, and committing countless war crimes, one startling fact about Russia’s full-scale invasion remains — Moscow has yet to officially declare war on Ukraine. In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin described what he believed was going to be a swift victory and the capture of Kyiv within days as a “special military operation.” Nearly three-and-a-half years later, the Kremlin is stuck

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio surprised NATO allies this week with conflicting messages on Russia sanctions, delivering a tougher stance in private than in his public remarks, Politico reported on June 25.

Rubio met with NATO foreign ministers on June 25 during a private dinner at the alliance's annual summit. According to sources who spoke with Politico, Rubio acknowledged that Russia was the main obstacle preventing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.

He reportedly said the U.S. Senate would likely consider new sanctions legislation after completing work on President Donald Trump's spending bill.

However, just hours later, Rubio softened his position on Russia during an exclusive interview with Politico, calling for a more cautious approach.

"If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire and then who's talking to them?" Rubio said.

Putin insists the Russian economy is fine, but Kremlin officials say otherwise

In a rare public sign that all is not well in Russia, two high-ranking Moscow officials last week issued separate warnings about the state of the country’s economy. Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov both highlighted that amid the Kremlin’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the tools Moscow once relied on to maintain wartime growth are nearly exhausted. Almost immediately, Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 20 dismissed the concerns, clai

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

He also added that Trump would know the "time and place" to change course.

When asked about the apparent shift in tone, a senior U.S. official insisted Rubio's messaging has remained consistent in conversations with allies.

"The secretary has been very consistent in meeting and calls with his counterparts on three key point," the official said.

"One is that the president believes strongly that the only way this war ends is through negotiations; second, as soon as the U.S. imposes new sanctions on Russia the opportunity for the U.S. to be involved in those negotiations closes; and third, that the Senate, in America anyway, is an independent body that at some point is going to move on those sanctions,."

At the NATO dinner, Rubio reportedly faced criticism from Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin was disrespecting Trump by violating the ceasefire.

It has been more than 100 days since Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-backed complete ceasefire, while Russia continues to reject it.

Sikorski also reportedly denounced Moscow's repeated attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, which have intensified in recent weeks, saying such strikes "should not come for free" — implying that the U.S. and Europe should do more to support Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Rubio has delivered different messages in public and behind closed doors. Despite the shifting rhetoric, Baltic and Nordic countries reportedly view him as a pragmatic ally within the Trump administration — one who has a realistic understanding of the threats posed by Russia and China, according to a second European official cited by POLITICO.

Ukraine war latest: US signals more Patriot missiles for Kyiv after Zelensky-Trump talks at NATO summit

Key developments on June 25: * Zelensky, Trump hold talks on NATO summit sidelines * ‘Something unknown’ hits key Russian drone facility in Taganrog, Ukrainian official says * Russia has launched over 28,000 Shahed drones at Ukraine since 2022, with nearly 10% fired in June alone, Zelensky says * Donetsk Oblast city “on

The Kyiv IndependentThe Kyiv Independent news desk

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague on June 25.

The meeting lasted approximately 50 minutes, according to Suspilne. In a post on X, Zelensky described the conversation as "long and substantive."

"We covered all the truly important issues," he wrote. "We discussed how to achieve a ceasefire and a real peace. We spoke about how to protect our people. We appreciate the attention and the readiness to help bring peace closer."

Zelensky said that he briefed Trump about the situation on the battlefield.

"Putin is definitely not winning," Ukraine's president said.

The two leaders also discussed the purchase of American air defense systems as well as the potential for co-production of drones.

"Ukraine is ready to buy this equipment and support American weapons manufacturers," Zelensky added.

Speaking at a briefing, Trump was asked what he would be discussing during the meeting with Zelensky.

"Obviously we'll be discussing his difficulties, he's got a little difficulty," the U.S. president replied without elaborating on what he meant.

Andriy Yermak, Zelensky's chief of staff, said that the presidents discussed the future of global security, ways to end Russia's all-out war, and defense cooperation between Kyiv and Washington.

Speaking at a press conference following the meeting, Trump said that it "couldn’t have been nicer."

"I think it’s a great time to end it (war). I’m going to speak to Vladimir Putin, see if we can get it ended," Trump said. "He (Zelensky) is fighting a brave battle, it's a tough battle."

The NATO summit convenes at a time when U.S. support for Kyiv is waning, and just a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared "all of Ukraine is ours."

This is the first meeting between the two leaders since April, when they spoke briefly on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral in Rome.

A planned discussion at the G7 summit earlier this month fell through after both leaders left the event early, Trump due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and Zelensky in response to drone and missile attack on Kyiv.

Upon arriving in The Hague, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said on June 24 that he had held "substantive" talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prepare for the Zelensky-Trump meeting, including its structure and key topics.

Zelensky is also scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the summit.

In a recent interview with Sky News, Zelensky expressed uncertainty about Trump's ties to Putin but said he believes Trump understands that Ukraine is a U.S. ally and that "the real existential enemy of America is Russia."

NATO allies set new 5% defense spending target, reaffirm support for Ukraine, but fail to condemn Russia

The leaders also reaffirmed support for Ukraine, stating that direct contributions to Ukraine’s defense and industrial capacity will be counted toward the 5% total.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Editor's note: This story was updated with comments made by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

NATO member states have agreed to a new defense spending benchmark, committing to allocate 5% of their gross domestic product annually to defense and security-related expenditures by 2035, according to a joint statement released on June 25 by alliance leaders meeting in the Netherlands.

The decision marks a significant increase from the current 2% guideline and reflects the alliance's response to the push from the U.S. and growing security threats, particularly the long-term challenge posed by Russia.

"We remain united and steadfast in our resolve to protect our one billion citizens," the statement reads. "Allies commit to invest 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements as well as defense and security related spending."

"The decision we make today makes NATO much stronger. It also makes NATO a much fairer alliance, with Europe and Canada stepping up," NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during a briefing on June 25.

Unlike in previous years, this year's NATO statement does not include a direct condemnation of Russia's actions, unlike the communique issued during the 2024 NATO summit in Washington, which explicitly condemned Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

But the leaders reaffirmed support for Ukraine, stating that direct contributions to Ukraine's defense and industrial capacity will be counted toward the 5% total.

When asked by a journalist whether the current trajectory of military aid from allies could help Ukraine "not only survive but win the war," Rutte said he is "optimistic."

"You can safely assume that the trajectory in the first almost six months now is really north of last year's," he said. "By the end of the year, it will end up north over $50 billion, which was pledged in 2024. I'm optimistic about that, but I won't make a concrete prediction."

He emphasized the importance of sustained and long-term support.

"We have to make sure Ukraine can stay in the fight, that it has what it needs... But we're also working to secure peace deal or a long-term ceasefire. And then we have to make sure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevent (Russian President) Vladimir Putin from effort ever trying this again in the future,” Rutte said.

Trump says Zelensky is a ‘nice guy,’ will discuss ‘his difficulties’ during meeting at NATO summit

“Obviously we’ll be discussing his difficulties, he’s got a little difficulty,” U.S. President Donald Trump said.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Rutte added that part of the strategy includes supporting Ukraine's defense industrial base, which has an estimated $35 billion in spare capacity.

Rutte emphasized that NATO's immediate priority is to "keep (Ukraine) in the fight," noting that support includes "training, delivering military equipment, but also various streams of money going into Ukraine" to help it defend itself and lay the groundwork for a future peace deal or long-term ceasefire.

Politico earlier reported that the narrowed focus of the NATO summit in The Hague was designed to appease U.S. President Donald Trump.

"(Trump) has to get credit for the 5% — that's why we're having the summit," one unnamed European defense official told Politico.

Under the new framework, at least 3.5% of GDP will be directed toward core defense needs, including NATO capability targets, with the remaining 1.5% covering civil preparedness, infrastructure protection, innovation, and the defense industrial base.

Allies will submit annual plans outlining a credible path to reach the targets, with a mid-term review scheduled for 2029.

Trump has consistently accused NATO members of underfunding their militaries, pushing for raising defense spending target to 5% of GDP.

In 2024, only 23 alliance members met the 2% target, according to NATO estimates. Poland was ahead of all members with 4.12% of GDP allocated to defense, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).

Rutte previously said on June 17 that all NATO countries are on track to meet the 2% threshold in 2025.

With Trump disengaged and EU complacent, Ukrainian reforms lose momentum

Russia’s all-out war has accelerated Ukraine’s push to join the European Union and NATO, as well as its dependency on Western loans and aid. Before, these things would have been heavily preconditioned on Ukraine implementing crucial reforms. However, the war has also eased the pressure on Kyiv to carry out

The Kyiv IndependentOleg Sukhov

U.S. President Donald Trump has said President Volodymyr Zelensky is a "nice guy" ahead of a meeting at NATO summit in The Hague on June 25, saying they will be "discussing his difficulties."

The White House confirmed the meeting on June 24 but did not release further details. According to a diplomatic source cited by AFP, the talks between Zelensky and Trump were scheduled for early afternoon, with both sides finalizing the agenda.

The two leaders are expected to discuss Ukraine's planned purchase of a new defense package, including air defense systems, as well as additional sanctions on Russia and an international price cap on Russian oil.

Speaking at a press briefing at The Hague on June 25, Trump was asked by a reporter what he would be discussing during the meeting with Zelensky.

"Obviously we'll be discussing his difficulties, he's got a little difficulty," Trump replied.

"Zelensky is a nice guy, I'm going to meet him today. I don't know, I assume we're going to be discussing Ukraine. It seems the most likely," he added.

Trump did not elaborate on what he meant by "difficulties" but the NATO summit comes at a time when U.S. support for Kyiv is waning, and just a week after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared "all of Ukraine is ours."

This will be the first meeting between Zelensky and Trump since April, when they spoke briefly on the sidelines of Pope Francis' funeral in Rome.

A planned discussion at the G7 summit earlier this month fell through after both leaders left the event early, Trump due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and Zelensky in response to drone and missile attack on Kyiv.

Upon arriving in The Hague on Monday, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said he held "substantive" talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prepare for the Zelensky-Trump meeting, including its structure and key topics.

Zelensky is also scheduled to meet with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during the summit.

In a recent interview with Sky News, Zelensky expressed uncertainty about Trump's ties to Putin but said he believes Trump understands that Ukraine is a U.S. ally and that "the real existential enemy of America is Russia."

Investigation: How Russia prepares its strategic missile plant for ‘eternal war’

Key findings: * Despite international sanctions, Russia’s strategic missile plant was able to import complex machinery to dramatically increase missile production. * The Kyiv Independent has identified the equipment supplied to the plant, as well as the supply chains, mostly from China. * We located the plant’s new premises, built to house the

The Kyiv IndependentAlisa Yurchenko

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's ongoing support for Ukraine at a NATO summit in The Hague on June 24.

"We have designed a funding program of 50 billion euros, we call it Safe, where member states, but also Ukraine and other partners, can take these loans to invest in the (Ukrainian) defense industry," she said, addressing President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We are integrating our defense industries as if Ukraine was in the EU. This is good for Ukraine. And just as good for Europe, as Ukraine is now home to extraordinary innovation," von der Leyen later said in a post to social media.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

"(M)y dear friend Volodymyr, you're here among friends and we stand by Ukraine from the very first day on and you can count on us also for the future," von der Leyen said.

The leader described the EU's 18th sanctions package as a "biting one" to apply pressure on Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Secondly, of course, there's constant financial support to Ukraine because we know you're fighting a war that is also protecting our values and our principles, and thirdly, indeed, we have to put pressure on President Putin (so) that he comes to the negotiation table," von der Leyen said.

She noted that members of the Group of Seven (G7) will also be implementing additional sanctions against Russia.

"All this shows you are among friends, you can count on us, we stand by your side," von der Leyen said.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

Investigation: How Russia prepares its strategic missile plant for ‘eternal war’

Key findings: * Despite international sanctions, Russia’s strategic missile plant was able to import complex machinery to dramatically increase missile production. * The Kyiv Independent has identified the equipment supplied to the plant, as well as the supply chains, mostly from China. * We located the plant’s new premises, built to house the

The Kyiv IndependentAlisa Yurchenko

Lithuania has signed a memorandum with American defense firm Northrop Grumman and Norwegian Nammo to secure the production of ammunition amid Russia's war against Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on June 24.

"By strengthening our national defense industry, we are investing in both technological capabilities and Lithuania’s resilience to crises. This Memorandum of Understanding will allow us to better equip our armed forces and help Lithuania become an important link in international supply chains," Lithuanian Vice Minister of National Defense Loreta Maskalioviene said.

"The investment and expertise of our allies... will significantly contribute to strengthening of the national defense industry and security not only in Lithuania, but also in the entire region, including Ukraine. The development of the defense industry and investment in production must come without delay," Lithuanian Finance Minister Rimantas Sadzius said.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has sparked concern in Europe that Russia could attack NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, the Baltic countries, and Finland.

Ukrainian intelligence has evidence that Russia is preparing new military operations in Europe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 22.

The partnership will be implemented at the state-owned Giraite Armament Factory, the announcement said, adding that the factory is set to be integrated into Northrop Grumman’s international supply chains.

Northrop Grumman will supply ammunition produced in the Lithuanian defense factory to the international market.

Nammo, as a subcontractor, will provide Northrop Grumman with the 35 mm ammunition production technology.

"It will enhance national strategic autonomy in defense and deepen partnerships with NATO allies, the United States, and Norway. The planned production of ammunition is of critical importance to the Lithuanian Armed Forces, our allies, and Ukraine," Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said.

The memorandum will initiate negotiations for the production of medium caliber ammunition, ranging in size from 20-50 mm.

The Giraite Armament Factory will be provided with 35 mm ammunition production technology from the two defense firms, the announcement said.

Sakaliene noted that the new partnership will ensure an uninterrupted supply of ammunition to Lithuania's Armed Forces.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

‘Like any technology, it’s a race’ — UK’s largest ammo maker rebooting chemistry to break NATO’s dependence on explosive imports

Russia’s war in Ukraine has drained Western ammunition stocks. Despite years of claimed weapons ramp-ups, NATO’s arms manufacturing is still not refilling those stocks apace, let alone making it to Ukraine in needed mass. The West has come to recognize that these shortages are due to the offshoring

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

President Volodymyr Zelensky said during NATO summit on June 24 that Ukraine has the capacity to produce over 8 million drones of various types each year, but lacks the financial backing to reach that potential, a shortfall he said must be urgently addressed to defeat Russia's growing military network.

"Our defense production potential has surpassed $35 billion,” Zelensky said during a speech at the NATO Defense Industry Forum in The Hague. "This includes nearly 1,000 types of products... but around 40% of this potential lacks proper funding. For example, we can produce over 8 million drones of different types each year, but the financing allows for far fewer."

Zelensky urged allies to scale up investments in joint weapons production, including drone technologies, artillery, and interceptors. He argued that Ukraine's defense capabilities are not only key to defending its own territory, but essential to strengthening NATO's long-term security.

"We must lead in the drone race, both in strike drones and interceptors," he said. "Please increase your investments in Ukraine and joint weapons production. All the weapons we produce become part of a new, stronger European defense and security system."

Why can’t the West match Russia’s ammunition production?

Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to reflect new details of BAE Systems’ new chemical process that the company confirmed to the Kyiv Independent after initial publication. The West is failing to catch up to Russia’s production of the most basic unit of war for the past half-millennium — gunpowder.

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

The Ukrainian president emphasized that Russia is not acting alone, but as part of a broader network of state and non-state actors, including North Korea, Iran, and Chinese companies, which support its war effort against Ukraine and pose a long-term threat to Europe.

"The source of this war and the long-term threat to Europe is Russia," Zelensky said. "But in reality, we are not just facing Russia alone. We are facing a network of state and non-state actors."

Zelensky also called on NATO members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP and to dedicate at least 0.25% of GDP to support Ukraine's military needs directly. He thanked countries such as Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the Netherlands for their elevated commitments, but urged others to follow suit.

Zelensky warned that Russia is planning "new military operations on NATO territory" and that the war in Ukraine must be stopped now to prevent broader European conflict.

"There are no signs that Putin wants to stop this war," Zelensky said. "So long as he kills, he lives. And our intelligence confirms this."

He also appealed for a crackdown on the supply chains that allow Russia to sustain its weapons manufacturing, referring to Western-origin components found in Russian missiles, drones, and armored vehicles.

"It's not just China, also Taiwan. Some of these parts come from European countries and from the United States," Zelensky said. "Every single tool delivered to Russia's defense sector helps prolong the war and is a crime against peace."

Zelensky's speech comes as NATO leaders gather in The Hague for a high-level summit on June 24-25. NATO leaders are expected to discuss raising the alliance's defensespending target to 5% of the GDP, a proposal the U.S. has championed but from which it considers itself exempt.

Zelensky is expected to meet U.S. President Donald Trump during the summit.

Zelensky plans to meet Trump at NATO summit in The Hague

Upon arrival in The Hague on June 24, Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said he held a “substantive” discussion with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio about the upcoming Zelensky-Trump meeting.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities demonstrated how precision military action can achieve rapid peace, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on June 24, speaking at the NATO Public Forum held alongside the alliance summit in The Hague.

"(The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities) shows how you get that peace through that strength, and that strength is amplified and enhanced by this alliance (NATO)," Whitaker said, referring to the June 21 American strikes on Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear sites, which U.S. President Donald Trump called a "spectacular success."

Whitaker emphasized that the U.S. remains a reliable ally and a cornerstone of NATO's deterrence. "The U.S. isn't going anywhere," he said. "The U.S. has certain capabilities that you want an alliance to have."

He added that recent U.S. military operations underscore the importance of defense investments by all member states. "If all of (NATO) countries elevate investments in their defense, I think we will have peace for generations,” Whitaker said.

The U.S. strikes on Iran came amid escalating tensions between Israel and Tehran. Trump said the strikes were intended to push Iran toward negotiations, warning that the alternative would be "tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed."

Trump claimed that a ceasefire between Iran and Israel was achieved on June 24. Just hours later, Israel accused Tehran of launching missiles toward its territory — an allegation Iran  denied.

Whitaker said the White House hopes the U.S. will also bring to an end Russia's war in Ukraine. He added that there is "no purely military solution" to the war in Ukraine.

Unlike past U.S. administrations, Trump has not introduced new sanctions against Russia despite increasing Russian missile and drone attacks on civilians.

On June 24, the first day of the NATO summit, Russia launched a ballistic missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, killing at least three people and injuring more than 20, including two children, according to regional officials.

Kyiv has long been advocating for "peace through strength" policy, calling for stronger sanctions against Russia and increased military aid to Ukraine.

‘Let’s not be naive’ — Rutte urges NATO to face Russia, China threats, pledges support for Ukraine

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said NATO’s role is to ensure Ukraine has the military means to stay in the fight until “serious” peace negotiations begin.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

President Volodymyr Zelensky met outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof on June 24 in The Hagueon the first day of the NATO summit.

Welcoming Zelensky at the Catshuis official residence, Schoof presented a new military aid package for Ukraine, including 100 drone radar systems, front-line vehicles for evacuating the wounded, and 80 million euros (over $90 million) for the drone initiative. The Netherlands will also start producing drones for Ukraine, according to Ukrainian specifications.

Zelensky arrived in the Netherlands on the evening of June 23, planning to meet allied leaders – including U.S. President Donald Trump – to discuss NATO's response to Russia's war against Ukraine during the annual summit.

"Let me be clear: Ukraine is part of the family that we call the Euro-Atlantic family," Schoof told Zelensky in front of reporters.

The new aid package is valued at 175 million euros ($200 million) and comes after a 500 million euros ($580 million) agreement to produce 600,000 drones with the Ukrainian defense industry, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said separately at the summit.

"We have these technologies, we want to share them with our partners. In The Hague, we begin to work with some countries on co-production," Zelensky said when talking about Ukraine's drone manufacturing capabilities.

Calling The Hague the "city of justice," Zelensky also said he counts on allied support in "holding Russia accountable for its crimes" and named the Netherlands among Ukraine's leading European supporters.

Zelensky's arrival was preceded by rumors that he might skip the event if Trump does not attend either. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian president later confirmed he plans to meet the U.S. leader on June 25, potentially marking their third meeting since Trump took office after the expected talks at the G7 summit in Canada fell through.

This year's NATO summit is taking place as Russia continues to launch large-scale deadly attacks on Ukrainian cities, disregarding calls by Kyiv and its Western partners for a ceasefire.

Allied leaders also face growing uncertainty about the Trump administration's commitment to both Ukraine and NATO's collective security as new conflicts emerge in the Middle East.

‘Let’s not be naive’ — Rutte urges NATO to face Russia, China threats, pledges support for Ukraine

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said NATO’s role is to ensure Ukraine has the military means to stay in the fight until “serious” peace negotiations begin.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called on alliance members to be realistic about the threats posed by Russia and China, and urging them to stay the course in supporting Ukraine.

"Let's not be naive," Rutte said. "You see what China, North Korea and Iran are doing in supporting the war effort of Russia ... So this is all interconnected."

Rutte emphasized that while NATO faces multiple global challenges, from the war in Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East and Russian influence in Africa, the alliance must be able to focus on more than one crisis at a time.

"If you can only deal with one issue at a time, you should not be in politics or defense," he said.

Rutte said NATO's role is to ensure Ukraine has the military means to stay in the fight until "serious" peace negotiations begin.

"We have to make sure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position when real talks start," he said. "I'm not talking about these talks led by some Russian historian (Vladimir Medinsky) who wants to go back 1,000 years... That's not serious business.”

The talks he referenced, led by Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky and held in Istanbul in May-June, have yielded prisoner exchange agreements but no progress toward a ceasefire or settlement. Ukraine has offered a comprehensive roadmap, but Rutte said Russia had not come to the table with serious intent.

’100 days of Russian manipulations’ — Ukraine blasts Moscow over disregarding US ceasefire effort

A hundred days since the U.S. and Ukraine agreed on a ceasefire, “Russia continues to choose war,” Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on June 19, urging international pressure to push Moscow toward peace.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

Instead, Russia continues to reject U.S. proposed comprehensive ceasefire, and insists on its longstanding maximalist demands.

"When the time comes for serious talks, we must ensure any long-term ceasefire or peace deal is durable — so that (Russian President) Vladimir Putin will never again try to seize even one square kilometer of Ukrainian territory," Rutte said.

Rutte also stressed that Ukraine is evolving from a security consumer into a security producer. He noted that the country's "largely untapped" defense industrial base, with a potential value of up to $35 billion, is increasingly attracting European investment.

"Ukraine has one of the largest defense industries in Europe," Rutte said, adding that many countries, including Norway, Denmark, and Lithuania, are now investing in it. "That helps Ukraine, and it helps us.”

Responding to concerns over Europe's reliance on the United States, Rutte said NATO must stop "worrying so much" about U.S. commitment and instead ramp up its own military capabilities.

"There is total commitment by the U.S. President and U.S. senior leadership," Rutte said, dismissing doubts about Washington's future role in NATO. "However, it comes with an expectation that we will finally deal with this huge bubbling issue, which is that we are not spending enough as Europeans and Canadians."

Rutte strongly backed the alliance's new 5% GDP defense investment benchmark, saying increased spending must translate into ammunition stockpiles, troop recruitment, and industrial output. "The Russians are producing in three months what NATO produces in a year," he said.

Earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump accused NATO members of underfunding their militaries, pushing for raising defense spending benchmark to 5% of GDP.

In 2024, only 23 alliance members met the 2% target, according to NATO estimates. Poland was ahead of all members with 4.12% of GDP allocated to defense, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).

‘If we don’t help Ukraine further, we should start learning Russian,’ EU diplomacy chief says

Top EU diplomat Kaja Kallas cited a sharp increase in Russia’s military spending, noting that Moscow is now allocating more money to defense than the EU combined, and more than its own health care, education, and social policies put together.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said during a press briefing on June 23 that Russia remains the main threat to the alliance, citing Moscow's cooperation with China, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus.

"Moscow continues to wage war against Ukraine, with support of North Korea, Iran, and China, as well as Belarus," Rutte said.

The Secretary General told reporters that the alliance leaders are set to adopt a historic defense investment plan at the summit in The Hague on June 24-25, including a new benchmark of 5% of GDP for defense spending and a strengthened commitment to Ukraine.

"All leaders will take bold decisions to strengthen our collective defense, making NATO a stronger, fairer, and more lethal alliance," Rutte said at a press conference before the summit. “This is a leap that is ambitious, historic, and fundamental to securing our future.”

Rutte said the plan includes major increases in air defense systems, tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, a response to the evolving threat landscape, particularly Russia's war against Ukraine.

"We see Russia's deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day. We must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks," Rutte added.

The Secretary General warned that NATO must act urgently to prepare for future threats, citing assessments that Russia could rebuild sufficient military capacity to challenge NATO within five years. "Our security environment has changed, and not for the better. The threats we face today demand that we do far more," he said.

Rutte emphasized that the new defense investment plan will be reviewed in 2029, with annual reporting to ensure credibility.

He stressed that NATO remains committed to supporting Kyiv and reaffirmed the alliance's long-standing position that "Ukraine's path to NATO membership is irreversible." According to Rutte, the allies have pledged over 35 billion euros ($40,6 billions) in military aid to Ukraine for the first half of 2025, up from 20 billion announced earlier this year.

President Volodymyr Zelensky is attending the summit and will hold multiple meetings with NATO leaders. However, NATO's Ukraine Council will not convene, a decision seen as part of efforts to keep the summit's focus narrow, a move aimed at appeasing U.S. President Donald Trump, according to Politico.

The summit, shortened to 24 hours, has only one major session on defense spending. European officials cited by Politico said the format was designed to deliver a clear win to Trump, who is expected to tout the 5% spending pledge as a personal success. The U.S. is reportedly exempting itself from the new benchmark.

While recent summits have centered on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this year's joint communique may omit references to the war.

During the briefing, Rutte said that the final communique, agreed by NATO ambassadors, has "important language" about Ukraine, including defense spending up until 2035.

"This is a clear commitment by allies," Rutte said.

Pro-Russian ‘peace protestors’ set to descend on NATO summit

Dutch protesters who regularly call for an end to military aid to Ukraine will descend on The Hague next week to protest the upcoming NATO summit, which is set to take place on June 24-25. The group will protest against NATO alongside several other organizations and has urged supporters on

The Kyiv IndependentLinda Hourani

The narrowed focus of the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague — which will have only a single session devoted to defense spending — is designed to appease U.S. President Donald Trump, Politico reported on June 21, citing European defense officials.

NATO leaders will convene in The Hague June 24-25 to discuss raising the alliance's defense spending target to 5% of the GDP — a proposal the U.S. has championed but from whcih it considers itself exempt.

"(Trump) has to get credit for the 5% — that's why we're having the summit," one unnamed European defense official told Politico.

"Everything else is being streamlined to minimize risk."

The organizers of the summit have shortened the meeting from the typical two-day schedule to 24 hours in the hopes of keeping the focus on Trump and deliver a victory to the U.S. president. Trump plans to give an speech at the end of the summit celebrating the new spending benchmark and his own contributions to the pledge.

There will be no meeting of NATO's Ukraine council at the summit.

The European Council confirmed on June 20 that President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the summit in The Hague, despite media reports that Zelensky was considering skipping the event altogether. The reports followed Zelensky's disappointing venture at the G7 summit in Canada.

While Zelensky hoped to reset relations with the U.S. in a third face-to-face meeting with Trump, he never got the chance. Trump abruptly left the G7 summit, claiming he had to focus on the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

The Ukraine council's absence from the upcoming summit represents another concession to Trump, whose attention has shifted to the Middle East and who continues to refuse to impose sanctions on Russia.

Trump has also been unable to fulfill his promises to end the war in Ukraine. Six months of U.S. peacekeeping efforts under the Trump administration have brought a ceasefire no closer, as Russia escalates attacks and the civilian death toll climbs.

Convening NATO's Ukraine council could draw attention to Trump's ongoing failure, Politico reported.

"The priority is really to announce success in The Hague," a European official said. "The longer-term perspective is less important."

Trump's "America First" doctrine has repeatedly cast doubt on Washington's commitment to transatlantic alliances, especially NATO. In recent years, Trump has alarmed member states by questioning whether the U.S. should defend alliance members that do not meet military spending benchmarks.

Trump has also signaled that the U.S. will no longer be Ukraine's main ally in its defense against Russia and has called on European countries to shoulder the burden of supporting Ukraine.

While NATO summits in recent years have focused heavily on Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine, this year's joint communique may exclude references to the war altogether. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on June 9 admitted that the language may not be included in the statement, but insisted the alliance remained committed to Ukraine's future membership.

"The irreversible path of Ukraine into NATO is there, and it is my assumption that it is still there after the summit," Rutte said. "Whether it is again in the communique or not, I think that's not relevant, because all the language we previously agreed on is there — until we decide it is no longer there."

Pro-Russian ‘peace protestors’ set to descend on NATO summit

Dutch protesters who regularly call for an end to military aid to Ukraine will descend on The Hague next week to protest the upcoming NATO summit, which is set to take place on June 24-25. The group will protest against NATO alongside several other organizations and has urged supporters on

The Kyiv IndependentLinda Hourani

President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend a NATO summit in The Hague next week, the European Council confirmed on June 20.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte are set to meet Zelensky on June 24.

Zelensky was reportedly reconsidering attending the NATO summit, as questions remain over U.S. President Donald Trump's participation, the Guardian reported on June 17, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.

A schedule released by the European Council on June 20 confirms Zelensky's planned participation at the event.

A Ukrainian official told the Guardian that Kyiv is in a "permanent hazard" of becoming a victim of "Trump's short attention span," adding that Russia has exploited this uncertainty with fresh aerial attacks.

There were "all sorts of promises for this summit," including U.S. arms, the source said.

Zelensky was scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the Group of Seven (G7) Summit, held June 15-17.

Trump left the multilateral event early due to the renewed conflict between Israel and Iran.

Zelensky met with various leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Zelensky left the summit early, citing Russia's mass drone and missile attack on Kyiv.

On June 17, a Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv killed 30 people and injured another 172. The nearly nine-hour-long strike saw Moscow's forces launch large numbers of drones and missiles at Ukraine's capital.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemned the attack, describing it as a "massive and brutal strike" timed deliberately to coincide with the G7 summit.

Russia pulls its scientists out of Iranian nuclear plant, as Israeli strikes threaten decades of collaboration

Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have alarmed none more than Russia, the country that first brought nuclear power to Iran in defiance of Western objections. We’re “millimeters from catastrophe,” said Kremlin spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on June 18 in response to a bombing campaign that Israel launched against

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Spain has rejected a U.S.-backed proposal for NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, becoming the first alliance country to oppose the plan, Reuters reported on June 19.

The rejection adds pressure to the transatlantic debate ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, which has beenreduced to a single session focused on defense spending and alliance capabilities.  

In a letter to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called the proposed target "unreasonable" and warned it would undermine broader European efforts to build an integrated defense ecosystem.

"Committing to a 5% target would not only be unreasonable, but also counterproductive," Sanchez wrote, arguing it would "move Spain further away from optimal spending."

Spain estimates that its armed forces require spending equal to 2.1% of GDP to meet national military objectives, below the U.S.-endorsed threshold but above NATO's 2% benchmark.

U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused NATO members of underfunding their militaries, pushing for raising defense spending benchmark to 5% of GDP.

While no other NATO members have formally rejected the proposal, most have remained noncommittal. Poland, the Netherlands, and Sweden have expressed willingness to consider the 5% target.

In 2024, only 23 alliance members met the 2% target, according to NATO estimates. Poland was ahead of all members with 4.12% of GDP allocated to defense, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).

Rutte said on June 17 that all NATO countries are on track to meet the 2% threshold in 2025.

Spain, governed by a Socialist-led coalition, maintains a sharply different defense posture than the U.S. administration.

While Madrid supports Ukraine, it has taken a more cautious stance on the Middle East, including distancing itself from U.S. policy on Israel.

Diplomacy in crisis: G7 letdowns reveal limits to Western solidarity on Ukraine

KANANASKIS, Canada — The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit ended on June 17 with no joint statement in support of Ukraine, no commitments to provide desperately needed U.S. weapons, and no meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump. The Ukrainian delegation headed into the summit,

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat

Failure to provide stronger military and financial support for Ukraine could leave Europe vulnerable to growing Russian influence, meaning Europeans might have to "start learning Russian," the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said, the Guardian reported on June 17.

"We know that Russia responds to strength and nothing else," Kallas said. She called Ukraine "Europe's first line of defense" and emphasized the need for continued sanctions against Russia and more aid to Kyiv.

The comments come as Russian forces are intensifying their attacks on Ukrainian cities and the Kremlin continues to reject a push by Kyiv and its Western allies for an unconditional ceasefire.

"To quote my friend, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte: if we don’t help Ukraine further, we should all start learning Russian," Kallas said.

Kallas cited a sharp increase in Russia's military spending, noting that Moscow is now allocating more money to defense than the EU combined, and more than its own health care, education, and social policies put together.

"This is a long-term plan for a long-term aggression," she said.

In light of this, Kallas urged governments to adopt NATO's new target of spending 5% of GDP on defense, warning of Russia's hybrid warfare tactics, including airspace violations, attacks on critical infrastructure, and covert sabotage operations within EU borders.

The 5% defense spending target is expected to be formally adopted during the upcoming NATO summit, which will take place on June 24 and 25 in The Hague. U.S. President Donald Trump has insisted that the European allies increase their defense budgets.

Earlier, Kallas said Russian President Vladimir Putin "cannot be trusted" to mediate peace while continuing to bomb Ukrainian cities and civilians, as Moscow suggested to mediate negotiations between Israel and Iran amid growing escalation.

"Clearly, President Putin is not somebody who can talk about peace while we see actions like this," she said during a June 17 briefing, after a massive Russian missile and drone strike on Kyiv killed at least 28 people and wounded over 130.

Kallas also reiterated her call for the EU to move forward with tightening the oil price cap on Russian exports, even without U.S. backing. She warned that the ongoing Israel-Iran crisis could cause oil prices to spike, boosting Russia's war revenues.

The EU is currently preparing its 18th sanctions package against Moscow, targeting energy, defense, and banking sectors. The 17th round of sanctions came into effect in May.

Putin says he’s ready to meet Zelensky if West ‘stops pushing’ Ukraine to fight

Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine “as soon as possible,” preferably through peaceful means, and is ready to continue negotiations — provided that Kyiv and its Western allies are willing to engage, Vladimir Putin said.

The Kyiv IndependentOlena Goncharova

All 32 NATO member states are on track to meet the alliance's 2% GDP defense spending benchmark in 2025, Secretary General Mark Rutte said on June 17 at the G7 summit in Canada.

The announcement marks a major shift for the alliance, which has faced repeated criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump for failing to meet spending commitments.

The U.S. president has long pushed NATO members to spend more on defense, at one point suggesting the threshold be raised to 5% of GDP.

"This is really great news," Rutte said, praising announcements from Canada and Portugal, the last two holdouts. "The fact that you decided to bring Canada to the 2% spending when it comes to NATO this year is really fantastic," he told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

In 2024, only 23 alliance members met the 2% target, according to NATO estimates. Poland led all members with 4.12% of GDP allocated to defense, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).

Rutte's comments come ahead of the June 24–25 NATO summit in The Hague, which has been reportedly scaled back to a single working session on defense spending and alliance capabilities.

The move, according to Italian outlet ANSA, is designed to avoid friction with Trump, whose presence at the summit remains unconfirmed.

Ukraine has been invited to the summit, but President Volodymyr Zelensky may reconsider his attendance amid uncertainty over the U.S. delegation, the Guardian reported on June 17.

According to the outlet, some in Kyiv are questioning whether Zelensky's presence at the summit would be worthwhile without a confirmed meeting with Trump.

Many NATO members have cited Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine and Trump's isolationist rhetoric as reasons to accelerate defense spending and prepare for potential future threats.

Ukraine won’t receive NATO invitation at The Hague summit, Lithuanian FM says

“This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek

An invitation for Ukraine to become a member of NATO "is not on the agenda" of the upcoming summit in The Hague, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys said in an interview with the Baltic News Service published on June 18.

"This issue is certainly not on the NATO agenda and nobody has formulated an expectation that there will be an invitation in The Hague, nor have we heard that from the Ukrainians themselves," Budrys said in comments quoted by the LRT broadcaster.

"There is no such expectation that there will be breakthrough decisions, neither before the Washington summit nor now before the Hague summit – it is not on the agenda."

The comments, coming less than a week before the summit, hint at a shifting rhetoric within the alliance regarding Ukraine's potential membership after U.S. President Donald Trump took office.

The new Trump administration has spoken out against Kyiv's accession, and the U.S. president even echoed the false Russian narratives that its efforts to join NATO helped instigate Russia's full-scale invasion.

Unlike during the previous summits, the final communique may reportedly completely omit the topic of Ukraine's membership, as NATO members seek to avoid a conflict with Trump. The gathering was also preceded by rumors that Ukraine may not be invited due to U.S. opposition, but the invitation was extended in the end.

In spite of these tensions, Budrys said that the summit should keep its focus on Ukraine, stressing that the war-torn country is part of the Euro-Atlantic security space.

Ukraine applied for NATO membership in September 2022, months after the outbreak of the full-scale Russian invasion. The alliance has signaled support for Kyiv's accession efforts in previous years, even declaring at the Washington summit in 2024 that Ukraine's path to membership is "irreversible" — but stopping short of a formal invite.

Kyiv's swift entry seems increasingly unlikely amid opposition from the U.S. and several other members, even though NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently reaffirmed that a political commitment to Ukraine's membership stands. Ukraine would need support from all 32 members to join.

It remains uncertain whether The Hague summit will lead to any breakthroughs regarding Ukraine. Following signals that U.S. President Donald Trump may not attend the event, the Guardian reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky may skip the summit as well.

Tired of military aid delays, Ukraine has designed its own ballistic missile — and it’s already in mass-production

Ukraine announced on June 13 that its short-range Sapsan ballistic missile would go into mass production, a major development in Kyiv’s ongoing efforts to domestically produce the weapons it needs to fight Russia’s full-scale invasion. As Ukraine faces growing challenges in securing weapons from Western partners, and Russia continues launching

The Kyiv IndependentYuliia Taradiuk

President Volodymyr Zelensky may reconsider attending the NATO summit in The Hague, as questions remain over U.S. President Donald Trump's participation, the Guardian reported on June 17, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.

According to the Guardian, some in Kyiv are unsure if Zelensky's presence at the June 24-25 summit would be worthwhile without a confirmed meeting with Trump, whom they had hoped to engage directly in efforts to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin into accepting a ceasefire.

Earlier, Zelensky had traveled to the G7 summit in Canada, hoping to meet one-on-one with Trump and push for stronger sanctions against Russia. Trump left the summit early, citing the crisis in the Middle East, and no bilateral meeting or joint G7 statement took place.

One official told the Guardian that Ukraine is in a "permanent hazard" of becoming a victim of "Trump's short attention span," adding that Russia has exploited this uncertainty by fresh aerial attacks. The source added that there had been "all sorts of promises for this summit," including U.S. arms.

The Russian attack on Ukraine that occurred during the G7 summit killed at least 24 civilians and injured 134 in Kyiv. Trump has not responded to the attack as of the day after.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has reportedly said Trump had previously promised to attend the NATO gathering, though no official confirmation has been issued from Washington.

Despite the setback, Zelensky said the G7 meeting had concrete results for Ukraine. In a Telegram post on June 17, he thanked partners for increased military aid, new sanctions on Russia, and the decision to allocate frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

"It is important that our partners are ready not only to support our defense now, but also to rebuild Ukraine together after the war ends," he said.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a support package that includes 2 billion Canadian dollars ($1.5 billion) in military assistance and another $1.6 billion in reconstruction loans. The aid includes drones, armored vehicles, ammunition, and sanctions to disrupt Russia's energy revenues.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer also unveiled new sanctions targeting Russia's military-industrial complex and 20 oil tankers from Russia's "shadow fleet."

Zelensky later told G7 leaders that "diplomacy is now in a state of crisis" and called on allies to press Trump to "use his real influence" to help end the war.

Ukraine has been invited to the NATO summit, and Zelensky previously called the invitation "important" during a June 2 press briefing. At the time, he did not confirm whether he would attend in person.

As Trump stays silent, US Embassy makes late denunciation of Russia’s attack on Kyiv

“We extend deepest condolences to the victims’ families. This senseless attack runs counter to President Trump’s call to stop the killing and end the war,” the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said in a statement.

The Kyiv IndependentAnna Fratsyvir