Ukraine has received more than 50,000 rounds of 20-mm ammunition from Denmark for the onboard cannons of its F-16 fighter jets, with Ukrainian pilots already using the rounds to intercept Russian jet-powered Geran attack drones, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said.

The accelerated delivery addresses a key need in Ukraine’s air defense as Russia increasingly deploys faster jet-powered drones that challenge conventional interceptors. Ukraine has also relied on F-16 cannons when stocks of air-to-air missiles are limited, making ammunition supplies important to keeping the aircraft effective against incoming aerial threats.

Denmark responds to ammunition request

The Defense Ministry thanked Denmark for responding quickly to Ukraine’s request for additional ammunition, saying the delivery directly strengthens the country’s air defenses and helps protect civilians from Russian aerial attacks.

The delivery follows a broader effort by Ukraine’s European partners to replenish F-16 cannon ammunition. On October 2, it was reported that Spain, Belgium, and Poland were also sending 20-mm rounds for Ukrainian F-16s to counter Russia’s jet-powered drones.

Belgium is also expanding its support for Ukraine’s F-16 fleet. On 16 October, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever pledged to deliver 10 F-16s by the end of 2026, up from three previously planned, and discussed supplying additional ammunition, including 20-mm rounds produced by Belgian defense company FN Herstal.

Jet-powered drones pose a growing challenge

Russia’s faster attack drones are harder to intercept than older, propeller-driven Shahed-type models. Their speed gives air defenders less time to respond and makes them more difficult for many interceptor drones and conventional short-range weapons to catch.

Ukraine’s air-to-air missile shortages have also increased the importance of F-16 cannon ammunition. Ukrainian pilots have sometimes relied on their aircraft’s built-in 20-mm cannon when air-to-air missiles are scarce.

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The threat from jet-powered drones is growing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in late September that Ukraine was intercepting about 55% of Russia’s jet-powered drones, compared with more than 90% of older models.

Denmark’s ammunition delivery gives Ukrainian F-16 pilots more rounds to engage these faster targets, as Ukraine works to strengthen its defenses against Russia’s expanding drone campaign.

Denmark will guarantee a loan to the Danish subsidiary of Fire Point, the Ukrainian maker of Flamingo cruise missiles, the Danish Business Ministry announced on 21 October. The financing will run through EIFO, Denmark’s state export and investment fund.

Ukraine uses its Flamingo missiles to strike defense plants deep inside Russia as Moscow continues its full-scale invasion. Fire Point broke ground in December 2025 on a plant in Vojens, southern Denmark, to make solid fuel for the missiles. The project has since grown far more expensive. In August, CEO Iryna Terekh said its estimated cost had risen from €50 million to above €150 million, calling the figure “very rough.” The war, meanwhile, stands in the way of Fire Point borrowing on ordinary terms in Denmark, the ministry said. That is why the Danish state is guaranteeing the loan.

What Denmark is putting up

The guarantee covers 750 million Danish kroner, or about $112.6 million, Reuters reported. Terekh said in August that the plant’s launch had slipped to late 2027. The ministry called the deal another big step toward starting production. However, Ukrainian outlet Defender Media noted that the statement does not say directly that the loan will fund the plant.

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EIFO chief Peder Lundquist said the fund is involved in nearly 40 projects linked to Ukraine. Business Minister Martin Lidegaard said hosting a Ukrainian defense company brings Denmark knowledge, production, and partnerships. Europe’s security and freedom, he added, start in Ukraine.

Better shielded from Russian strikes

Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus said Denmark was the first country to decide to let a Ukrainian defense company set up on its soil. Production outside Ukraine, he argued, is better protected from Russian attacks. He added that Fire Point’s presence opens cooperation that could give Denmark access to technologies developed in wartime.

Denmark first said in September 2025 that Fire Point would make long-range missile fuel on Danish soil. Since then, the company has signed deals with more than a dozen European firms for FREYJA, an anti-ballistic project. It could reduce Europe’s long-term reliance on scarce US-made Patriot interceptors. Fire Point aims for a first ballistic missile intercept with it by mid-2027.

Several recent incidents across Europe were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, ISW assessed in its 24 September report, though authorities have not officially linked the Polish and German incidents to Moscow.

Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine has expanded into a parallel campaign of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure. The Kremlin is using drones, arson, and undersea cable sabotage to degrade Europe's will and ability to support Ukraine, while deliberately intensifying the frequency of airspace violations to erode the boundary between hybrid and kinetic war.

Drones over Moldova and Romania

Four Russian drones flew over Bukovyna and targeted an energy facility and border crossings with Moldova and Romania, Chernivtsi Oblast Military Administration head Ruslan Osypenko reported. Ukrainian forces shot down three. The fourth flew toward Suceava County in northeastern Romania.

A drone crashed in Cernița, Florești district, Moldova—preliminarily identified as a Russian Gerbera type, the first such device found in the country. It carried an onboard camera, hit a tree, and exploded, Moldovan police said. Romania's Defense Ministry reported a second aerial vehicle entered Romanian airspace for four minutes and crashed near Solca in the same border region; geolocated footage confirmed it was also a Gerbera, ISW noted. Poland evacuated the Hrubieszów and Dorohusk border crossings for 30 minutes, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. Three countries were put on alert by a single night of Russian strikes.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

Sabotage in Poland and Germany

A fire engulfed the power system and backup generator at a Starlink ground station in Wola Krobowska, central Poland, on the evening of 23 September. Deputy Prime Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski confirmed it was sabotage aimed at cutting internet access, including for Ukraine's military. Authorities have not identified who was responsible, but the act aligns with Russia's "new" doctrine of attacks, Gawkowski said. The station is now operating normally.

German authorities suspended operations at Berlin-Brandenburg airport for 45 minutes the same evening after staff reported a drone sighting, Die Zeit reported. Federal police could not confirm it. ISW assessed both incidents fit Russia's wider pattern of sabotage against European defense assets, though neither has been officially attributed to Russia.

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Western intelligence warnings

A Lithuanian Defense Ministry source reported on 23 September that Russia could launch Gerbera drones from a shipping container in the Mediterranean against Spain, France, and Italy. Danish Defense Intelligence assessed on 24 September that Russia will intensify its hybrid war in coming months, including destructive cyber attacks and sabotage carrying a high risk of casualties, and that there is a low but growing risk of a limited Russian military attack on a NATO border state. It sees no indications of an outright invasion. The CIA reportedly warned Poland that Russia may sabotage underwater cables to disrupt its banking system, according to Newsweek Polska journalists.

NATO tracked and confronted Russian submersibles rehearsing deployment of a new cable-disabling weapon near Svalbard in spring 2026—no cables were damaged, but the operation demonstrated Moscow's intent, Reuters reported. Shadow fleet vessels likely served as drone-launch platforms for incursions into NATO airspace, ISW noted.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

ISW said it has not yet seen evidence that Russia has conducted the attacks the warnings describe.

Denmark's assessment—that a limited Russian military strike on a NATO border state could come in the coming months—suggests the boundary between hybrid provocations and military action is narrower than European policy has assumed. ISW's synthesis reframes what governments have treated as separate incidents into one campaign.

"Intentional and accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspaces are likely part of the Kremlin's efforts to normalize airspace violations by intensifying their frequency," ISW assessed.

"The increasing frequency of such warnings suggests that Western intelligence agencies are picking up indicators that the Kremlin is looking to diversify its platforms and means for conducting attacks against NATO and European states and is considering conducting such attacks," ISW assessed.

Kyiv and Copenhagen signed a landmark agreement on July 4 that allows Ukrainian defense companies to open production facilities in Denmark, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin announced.

"This is a unique case of international cooperation for the Ukrainian defense industry," Smetanin wrote on Facebook, following the signing ceremony in Copenhagen alongside Danish Industry Minister Morten Bodskov.

The deal marks the first time Ukrainian defense technologies will be exported abroad specifically for supply to Ukraine's own Armed Forces, he said.

A year ago, Denmark became the first country to fund weapons production by Ukrainian manufacturers. Now, it has become the first to host Ukrainian arms production lines on its territory, Smetanin added.

"Today, it has become the first country to which Ukraine exports its own defense technologies for production, scaling, and supply to the Ukrainian army," he said.

The agreement is part of Ukraine's broader effort to internationalize its defense production. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on June 21 that Kyiv would soon begin exporting defense technologies and opening weapons production lines in partner countries.

To scale up domestic and international production, Zelensky has called on foreign partners to finance new projects and match Ukraine's rapidly growing manufacturing capacity.

Denmark has been a key backer of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. In February 2024, Copenhagen signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, pledging long-term defense cooperation until Ukraine secures NATO membership.

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Ukraine signed a major deal with U.S. company Swift Beat to co-produce hundreds of thousands of drones this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 3 during his visit to Denmark.

The long-term strategic partnership agreement was signed by Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Swift Beat, in Denmark on the same day.

Under the deal, the company will produce various kinds of unmanned aerial vehicles for Ukraine, including those designed to intercept Russian drones and missiles, reconnaissance, attack, and other drones, Zelensky said in a statement published on the website of the President's Office.

"The key priority is interceptor drones that have already proven effective in Ukraine," Zelensky said. "We've tested models from several companies, and now we're signing serious contracts."

Swift Beat will increase its production capacity, aiming to produce hundreds of thousands of drones for Ukraine this year, with plans to scale up production in 2026, according to Zelensky.

"Modern drones will be supplied to Ukraine as a priority, on special terms and at cost," Zelensky said.

The announcement comes just a day after the U.S. Defense Department (DOD) has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other weapons previously promised to Kyiv. Ukraine has been trying to negotiate buying U.S. weapons for months after U.S. President Donald Trump, who has opposed military aid to Kyiv, took office in January.

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Swift Beat has a significant presence in Ukraine, according to Zelensky's office. It specializes in autonomous AI-powered drones and cooperates with Ukrainian engineers and the military, conducting drone testing on Ukrainian territory, the statement reads.

Zelensky arrived in Denmark on July 3 to mark the country's assumption of the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union.

Zelensky also said that during his visit, he plans to raise the issue of political blockages hindering Ukraine's path to joining the European Union.

"We're ready to open three accession clusters and want to start with one now, in the very near future. But political blockages remain, purely political," he said.

While EU member states agreed to take into account the European Commission's assessment that Ukraine is ready to open the first, Fundamentals cluster, the process remains stalled due to Hungary's refusal to grant unanimous support.

Ukraine applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status shortly thereafter, but full negotiations require the approval of all 27 EU member states.

Denmark has been a key backer of Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. In February 2024, Copenhagen signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Kyiv, pledging long-term defense cooperation until Ukraine secures NATO membership.

Zelensky said he expects Denmark to expand its financial support for Ukraine's drone and missile production initiatives.

"What we've just signed requires significant funding. I'm counting on our relationship with Denmark," the president said.

The Ukrainian president will also participate in official events commemorating Denmark's presidency of the Council. According to Danish broadcaster DR, the events will be attended by Denmark's royal family, government officials, and EU leaders.

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Defense Minister Rustem Umerov signed a Letter of Intent on June 24 with his Danish counterpart Troels Lund Poulsen to launch Ukrainian defense production in Denmark, Umerov announced on Facebook.

The document envisages facilitating the deployment of Ukrainian defense companies in Denmark and integrating of the defense industries of both countries through the "Build with Ukraine" initiative.

Denmark has already allocated $47 million for the project, and Ukraine's partners will provide further funding for production.

"I thank the Danish government for its trust, steadfast support of Ukraine, and commitment to developing a deep partnership between our countries," Umerov said. "This partnership enhances the security of Ukraine, Denmark, and all of Europe — today and into the future."

The agreement between Ukraine and Denmark also provides coordination between the Danish Defense Ministry, the Business and Industry Ministry, and the Foreign Ministry to integrate Ukrainian enterprises into the European defense system.

"By providing Ukrainian defense companies the opportunity to start production in Denmark, we are creating a basis for close cooperation between defense companies in both countries. This will also provide the Danish Armed Forces with access to the latest technologies and the experience of Ukraine," Poulsen said.

Denmark has pioneered efforts to support Ukraine by investing in its defense industry, creating the so-called "Danish model" of purchasing arms for Kyiv from Ukrainian producers. Copenhagen has provided around $9.8 billion in military aid under its Ukraine Fund for the years 2023-2028.

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