Russia is expanding drone storage at the Hvardiiske military airfield in occupied Crimea, Ukrainian OSINT channel Dnipro Osint reported on 26 October, citing new satellite images. The channel did not say who took the images or when. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it struck drone hangars at the same airfield in July, and the military said strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites nearby.

Hvardiiske has stayed in use since then. Ukraine’s General Staff has listed it among the sites Russia launched attack drones from in every daily report since 7 October. The airfield was on the list again on 24, 25, and 27 October, the night Russia aimed its main strike at Kyiv. The new construction, as the channel describes it, adds protected storage at a base Ukraine has already shown it can reach.

Shelters and “garages”

The images show more than 20 small shelters under construction, each protected by earth berms, the channel said. It also counted about 40 smaller structures it calls “garages.” It said they are meant for storing, servicing, and preparing Geran drones for launch.

Geran is the name Russia gives the Iranian-designed Shahed drones: the Shahed-136 became the Geran-2, which Russia now builds itself. The images show at least one hangar damaged by a Ukrainian drone hit, Dnipro Osint noted.

Launched from vehicles

Hvardiiske, north of Simferopol, uses mobile launch platforms instead of fixed installations, according to Dnipro Osint. Crews load drones onto specially equipped vehicles, which then launch them from the runway.

Struck repeatedly since June

On 24 June, the SBU said it hit infrastructure at Hvardiiske and at the Saky airbase. On 3 July, the SBU reported that its drones struck two hangars at Hvardiiske that stored Shaheds and aviation equipment. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck the airfield again overnight on 5 July, and the SBU said a day later that it hit three hangars with aviation equipment there. A strike on 3 August destroyed nine aviation-fuel tanks and damaged two aircraft hangars, the General Staff said. Strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites near Hvardiiske, with signs of secondary detonation, it reported two days later.

Not the only base Russia is building up

Hvardiiske is not the only Russian drone base Ukrainian OSINT channels have flagged this month. On 13 October, the anonymous channel Absolutely Reliable Source said Russia had nearly finished the first section of a launch site for jet-powered Geran-5 drones near Millerovo in Rostov Oblast, with eight launcher positions and 32 drone-preparation spots. Hvardiiske and Millerovo were both among the launch areas the General Staff listed for the night of 27 October, when Russia launched 280 Shahed-type drones, 69 of them jet-powered, with Kyiv as the main target.

Russia lost almost 300 km² of Ukrainian territory on net between March and September 2026, and it likely gained no ground in September despite its heaviest casualties of the year, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed. Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi accounts for much of the swing. The think tank notes that Ukraine's secrecy around such counterattacks makes exact monthly tallies hard.

Russia has pressed attacks along the entire front through 2026, accepting mass casualties for marginal ground, and its battlefield year has already been called its worst since 2023. Its losses have been outpacing its recruitment for months.

Russia came out behind in September

Russian forces seized 175.54 km² in September but lost 256.35 km², a net loss of 80.81 km², or minus 2.69 km² a day, ISW calculated. The balance stayed negative when Russian infiltrations into areas Russia does not control are counted: Russia seized or infiltrated 143.2 km² but lost 318.38 km², a net loss of 175.18 km².

The September figures include at least 147 km² near Lyman that Ukraine liberated over earlier months, but that ISW recorded only once details of Operation Vivaldi emerged in September. The operation already disrupted Russia's plan to encircle the Fortress Belt cities from the Lyman and Dobropillia directions.

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Almost 300 km² lost since March

Russia's rate of seizing territory dropped sharply in March 2026 and has stayed low, or even negative, since, ISW found. After controlling for the gains Ukraine made during Vivaldi, Russia lost control of 293.59 km² net across the front since March. Counting infiltrations, it gained a presence in only 174.44 km² over the same period.

ISW's monthly chart shows net Russian losses of 116.01 km² in April and 281.1 km² in May, modest gains in June, July, and August, and a net loss again in September. Oleksandr Syrskyi, then Ukraine's commander-in-chief, reported in June that Ukrainian forces had recaptured 100 km² in May.

More than 46,000 casualties for no ground

Russian forces suffered 46,230 casualties in September, Ukraine's General Staff reported. It is the third straight month above 40,000 and the highest monthly toll of 2026, by Kyiv's count. Monthly Russian casualties have climbed from 32,980 in April to 42,860 in July and 42,020 in August, ISW's chart shows.

Russia keeps suffering heavy personnel losses while making extremely limited or even net-negative territorial gains, ISW said, and its current force generation system still recruits fewer soldiers than it needs to replace them.

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Ukraine's effective operational security around Vivaldi, likely to continue in future counterattacks, will make meaningful month-to-month assessments of Russian gains and losses hard, the think tank added.