Gasoline prices have risen roughly 10–13% in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan as Russia restricts exports after Ukrainian strikes on its refineries, Kazakh economist Aidar Alibayev estimated in a 20 August interview with Current Time. He did not specify the comparison period.

Earlier Ukrainian attacks disrupted Kazakhstan’s crude exports through Russia’s Black Sea ports. Strikes at refineries are creating a different kind of squeeze: Russia has less gasoline available to dependent neighbors. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are seeking other suppliers, while Kazakhstan could face growing pressure if the shortages persist.

Tajikistan has been hit hardest because it depends heavily on Russian fuel and has the region’s most difficult delivery routes, Alibayev said. He estimated gasoline prices there had risen 12–13%. Current Time reported that Tajikistan is exploring supplies from China; Alibayev said it was also turning to Iran.

Kyrgyzstan, which sources more than 90% of its gasoline from Russia, asked its neighbors, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, as well as other countries, for help. Current Time reported that a deputy prime minister said its reserves would last about six weeks. Alibayev estimated prices had climbed around 10%, compared with 11–11.5% in Uzbekistan, which he estimated gets half its fuel from Russia.

In Uzbekistan, Alibayev estimated that fuel prices had risen by about 11% and said the country gets about half of its fuel from Russia.

Russia extended its gasoline and diesel export restrictions through 31 January 2027 as shortages mounted. Intergovernmental and humanitarian shipments remain exempt, while diesel producers regain some export rights from 1 September. Current Time also reported that Russian companies had begun buying gasoline from Belarus.

Kazakhstan is better insulated than its neighbors because its refineries in Atyrau, Shymkent, and Pavlodar produce enough fuel to meet most domestic demand, Alibayev noted. Motorists from Russia and neighboring states are crossing its borders to refuel. He attributed Kazakhstan’s price rises mainly to domestic taxes and the end of an export moratorium—not Russia’s shortage alone.

Central Asia looks for routes beyond Russia as war drags on

Ukraine’s Black Sea campaign has repeatedly struck oil infrastructure around Novorossiysk, where the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal handles about 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports. Separate tanker attacks cut CPC loadings by a fifth and forced Kazakhstan to reduce production. In contrast, disruptions at the terminal forced Kazakhstan to send Kashagan crude to China for the first time.

At an informal summit of Central Asian leaders in Cholpon-Ata in early August, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building a refinery to serve the whole region. For now, Alibayev said, the decisive factor is how long Russia’s troubles last: the longer Ukraine’s strikes continue, the more they will weigh on prices across Central Asia.

The Greek-run oil tanker Skiros was attacked near Novorossiysk on 16 August 2026 after loading Russian crude at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, Bloomberg reported.

The Suezmax-class vessel can carry about 1 million barrels. Bloomberg identified no attacker and provided no information about damage. Skiros’s Athens-based manager told the outlet that no one was injured and no pollution occurred.

CPC primarily exports Kazakh oil and carries more than two-thirds of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Its shipments recently accounted for almost 2% of the global oil supply. Russian crude typically makes up only 5% to 10% of CPC exports.

Earlier in August, Ukraine agreed not to attack CPC infrastructure or non-Russian ships bound for the terminal if they were not under Ukrainian sanctions and did not carry Russian cargo. Because Skiros carried Russian crude, the protection did not apply to it under the terms Bloomberg described.

Following the July attacks, CPC considered suspending operations due to environmental and safety risks but decided to continue operations, Bloomberg reported.

The Skiros attack ended an almost three-week lull in attacks on ships using the terminal. Bloomberg did not say whether it disrupted oil loading, and CPC declined to comment.

Earlier attacks cut Kazakhstan’s oil production

Earlier attacks suspended loading at the terminal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed a temporary reduction in oil production to prevent storage facilities from reaching capacity, while Reuters reported CPC loadings fell by a fifth in July.

The disruption also increased shipping and war-risk insurance costs as some operators became reluctant to call at the terminal, The Financial Times reported.

Paralysis of the logistics

Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the Skiros attack, and Bloomberg did not identify an attacker. In a separate operation in July, the SBU and Navy acknowledged striking sanctioned Russian oil tankers Louise 1 and Banda with Mamai sea drones.

Robert “Madyar” Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, later described the wider objective as the “paralysis of the logistics” of oil, fuel, and cargo that bypasses sanctions.

On 12 August 2026, Ukraine targeted Russia's main Black Sea naval base and oil terminal at Novorossiysk overnight. Fires broke out at the port's oil and fleet facilities, two of Russia's largest grain terminals stopped work, and debris damaged homes across the city, according to Ukrainian monitoring channels and local Russian authorities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the operation hours later.

Kyiv calls it a "unique operation" on the fleet's last big base

Zelenskyy said Ukraine's Defense Forces hit the Novorossiysk naval base overnight on 12 August. The port city is situated more than 350 kilometers from the front line on Russia's eastern Black Sea coast. The Ukrainian president described the assault as a unique operation against the last main outpost of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

"Our Palianytsia jet drones, Neptune missiles, and naval uncrewed systems precisely struck the designated targets," he said, adding that hits were confirmed on air-defense positions, piers, and seaport infrastructure.

Fires at the Sheskharis oil terminal and the naval harbor

Ukrainian drones hit the oil terminal and the naval base, the Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported. Its analysis of NASA satellite fire data placed blazes at the Sheskharis complex, where crude loads onto tankers, and near the naval base and fuel-storage tanks.

Sheskharis is the endpoint of Transneft's main pipelines and a key export point for Russian crude on the Black Sea. Novorossiysk ships 600,000 to 700,000 barrels of oil a day.

The Ukrainian monitoring channel Krymsky Veter said fires broke out near the Sheskharis pier and the military harbor where Black Sea Fleet ships and submarines dock. Russia moved vessels to Novorossiysk after Ukrainian strikes pushed the fleet out of occupied Crimea.

Two grain terminals stop at the world's top wheat exporter

Novorossiysk's two largest grain-handling terminals halted work after the strikes, Reuters reported, citing four industry sources. The world's top wheat seller, Russia sends most of its exports out through Black Sea ports.

The Novorossiysk grain terminal, which can move 8.5 million tons a year, halted work as owner Demetra Holding assessed the damage. NKHP, a terminal handling 7.1 million tons a year, also stopped, its main owner OZK said, adding that no one was hurt. The Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel Exilenova+ described NKHP, Russia's largest deepwater grain terminal, as one of the sites hit.

The strikes extend Ukraine's effort to deny Russia the grain and oil revenue that funds the war, a mirror of Russia's own summer campaign against Ukraine's ports: as Moscow strikes Odesa's terminals to choke Ukrainian exports, Kyiv works to shut Russia's own.

Russia says its own drone debris damaged homes and killed two

Krasnodar Krai Governor Veniamin Kondratyev claimed several hundred drones attacked the region overnight and that falling debris struck 21 residential buildings and four enterprises in Novorossiysk. He claimed two people were killed, including an eight-year-old child, and 13 wounded across the krai, with about 90 residents moved to temporary shelters.

Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko claimed debris hit six residential buildings, a commercial building, and a construction site, and that there were casualties.

The Russian news Telegram channel Astra reported that a café burned on Sukhumskoye Shosse, across the road from the entrance to the Novorossiysk naval base. Astra also found that a strike damaged School No. 15 near the fleet's ship berths.

Part of a widening summer campaign

The strike fits a broader Ukrainian effort this summer to carry the war onto Russian soil and drain the Kremlin's ability to fight. A day earlier, Ukrainian drones set a Wildberries logistics complex ablaze near Voronezh and hit an oil refinery in Orsk. Overnight on 10 August, drones struck a petrochemical plant in Tobolsk and a refinery in Tatarstan.

Ukrainian aerial- and sea-drone attacks have turned Russia's busiest seaport into a place cargo ships increasingly refuse to sail, choking both imports from China and exports of grain and oil, according to The Moscow Times. Logistics and trade executives describe a route to Novorossiysk grown too risky to use, and a Russian grain-industry group warns the Black Sea export corridors could shut down entirely. The strikes that once spared container ships have now reached them too.

The China route importers are told to skip

"On the China–Novorossiysk route everything is now difficult, the delays are huge," one importer told The Moscow Times. 

Freight forwarders now tell clients to avoid the route outright, three colleagues said. Aerial drones and unmanned boats make the approaches too unpredictable. Earlier strikes fell mostly on grain carriers and oil tankers. Ukrainian drones hit a container ship carrying imports in late July. Then, overnight on 1 August, a sea drone sank the FESCO vessel Yanina about 130 miles offshore. The crew got out. The cargo did not.

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Sailings drop as the campaign widens

Large-ship sailings from Novorossiysk fell 38% in July, the Moscow Times says, citing ship-tracking data, with tanker runs down by half. 

"But now the situation will get worse, because container ships have also become a target," a logistics manager told the publication. 

This is one edge of a wider Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian shipping, codenamed MoLoChKa. The name is an acronym for "Moscow will fall through Crimea." Its own public scoreboard counts 206 vessels hit in July by the Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS) alone, with another logged in August. The SBS have mostly burned the small tankers and support ships that keep Russia's sanctioned shadow fleet moving.

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What Russia stands to lose

Novorossiysk carries every fifth ton of Russia's seaborne exports: Urals oil, Kazakh crude, wheat for Egypt, and fertilizer for Asia and Africa. 

Attacks across the Azov–Black Sea region could cost Russia up to 30–35 million tons of wheat exports this season, a grain-exporters' union estimated. That would gut a harvest analysts expected to top 44-45 million tons. 

"Systematic attacks that began in July could soon lead to the complete blocking of the export corridors of the Black Sea basin," the union said. 

Ukraine's drones had already cut into Russia's seaborne grain trade this summer, and repeated hits on the port's main oil terminal have dented crude loadings. Russia keeps pouring money into the port, building a new terminal worth 120.7 billion rubles (about $1.5 billion), even as ships stay away, The Moscow Times said.