Russian LNG accounted for all of Belgium’s liquefied natural gas imports in July, Bloomberg reported. The Iran war disrupted Middle Eastern supplies and kept European gas prices high.

The shift exposes a contradiction in EU energy policy. Countries should be reducing Russian purchases before a full ban on Russian gas, part of the EU's plan to end its energy dependence on Moscow amid the war against Ukraine, takes effect in January 2027. Yet disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has reopened demand for Moscow’s fuel.

Belgium bought about 0.4 million tons of Russian LNG in July, Bloomberg data show. Its total LNG intake fell by more than 40% from a year earlier, while high prices discouraged winter stockpiling. Russia became the sole supplier in a shrinking market.

Belgium still received pipeline gas from Norway and the UK, meaning Russia supplied all its LNG, not all its gas. It was the first month since early 2021 that all of Belgium’s LNG came from Russia, Bloomberg reported.

Europe’s Russian LNG reliance grows

France, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands spent €34.3 billion ($39.6 billion) on Russian LNG between 2022 and 2025, a Greenpeace analysis found. Their combined bilateral aid to Ukraine during that period totaled €21.2 billion ($24.4 billion). 

Europe’s Russian LNG dependence predates Belgium’s July reversal. The EU paid Russia €7.2 billion for LNG in 2025. By early 2026, Europe was receiving 97% of exports from Russia’s Yamal LNG plant.

Europe received 16% more Russian LNG in the first half of 2026 than a year earlier, paying €5.96 billion, Bloomberg reported. France, Belgium, and Spain were the biggest buyers, according to figures Bloomberg cited from the German nonprofit Urgewald.

The 2027 ban gives long-term buyers legal protection to end their contracts early. Yet the gas keeps flowing through European ports and on European-operated ships. In July, Greece held up new sanctions to protect Dynagas, whose vessels transport Russian gas sourced from the Arctic. 

Iran war boosts Russia and raises Ukraine’s costs

The same energy shock strengthens Russia while squeezing Ukraine. The Iran war increased Moscow’s energy income while raising the cost of Ukraine’s imported fuel. It also diverted political attention from Russia’s invasion. 

The scale became visible within the first two weeks of the Iran war. Russia earned €7.7 billion from fossil-fuel exports during the first half of March. Daily earnings reached €513 million as Brent crude climbed above $119 per barrel. 

Higher prices later threatened to raise the EU price cap on Russian oil from $44.1 to at least $65 per barrel. Brussels considered freezing it to prevent the Iran-driven price spike from weakening sanctions on Moscow.

Russia is making another attempt to expand its exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after U.S. sanctions disrupted production at its flagship Arctic LNG 2 plant, Bloomberg reported on June 28.

Arctic LNG 2, owned by the Russian company Novatek, was envisaged as Russia's largest LNG plant and aimed to produce almost 20 million metric tons of LNG per year. The U.S. State Department targeted the Arctic LNG 2 project with sanctions in 2024.

An LNG vessel has reportedly docked at the Arctic LNG 2 facility for the first time since October, according to ship-tracking data and satellite images analyzed by Bloomberg. Data suggests that at least 13 vessels of Russia's "shadow fleet" have been assembled to potentially serve Arctic LNG 2.

These include four ice-class vessels, including the one currently docked at Arctic LNG 2. Three others are idling in the Barents Sea, along with three traditional LNG vessels. Two more vessels are being repaired in China and another two are idled in the Gulf of Finland. One ship is located near a floating storage facility in Russia's Far East.

While pipeline shipments of Russian gas to Europe have declined sharply since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's shadow fleet — a group of aging oil tankers used to circumvent global sanctions — continues to grow.

Moscow now has more vessels at its disposal than it did last year, according to Malte Humpert, founder of the Arctic Institute think tank.

"If (Russia) can find buyers, this small fleet should be sufficient to lift cargoes," Humpert told Bloomberg.

Finding buyers may present a difficulty, due to wariness about sanctions violations. Former U.S. President Joe Biden sanctioned ships and companies connected with exports from Arctic LNG 2 in 2024, thought it is not yet clear if U.S. President Donald Trump will enforce sanctions as strictly.

Representatives of Arctic LNG 2 have continued to search for buyers in China and India, but have not yet made any sales, traders familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

Arctic LNG 2 cut production from its gas fields to almost zero in November 2024, after halting liquefaction the previous month due to Western sanctions. The U.S. sanctioned two vessels and two entities connected to Arctic LNG 2 in September 2024, after previously targeting the project in a sweeping round of sanctions late August.

The August sanctions likely forced Novatek to scale back its operations at the facility. Novatek itself was sanctioned after the outbreak of the full-scale war in 2022.

Despite escalating war plans, Putin claims Russia will cut military spending starting in 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 27 that Moscow plans to cut its military expenditure beginning next year, in a rebuke of NATO members’ plans to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.

The Kyiv IndependentDmytro Basmat