The European Commission is checking whether laws Ukraine’s parliament passed last week earn it a €3.7 billion ($4.3 billion) EU payment, spokesperson Balázs Ujvári told reporters in Brussels on 19 October. He also said Ukraine’s 2027 funding gap stands at about €70 billion, and that the EU “cannot do this all alone.” How Ukraine pays for Russia’s war next year now depends on reforms in Kyiv and on money from Europe and beyond.

Russia keeps striking Ukraine’s power grid and cities, and Kyiv already faces a hole in next year’s war budget before any new military spending. Foreign money keeps salaries, pensions, and repairs flowing while Ukraine spends its own revenue on defense. So each delayed payment is felt at home while Russia hits the energy system again.

Brussels reads Kyiv’s new laws before paying

The payment is the second tranche of the EU’s macro-financial assistance to Ukraine, and each one depends on reforms, Ujvári said at the Commission’s midday briefing.

“We saw that last week some important laws were adopted in the Rada, and we are in the process of analyzing these laws and we will formulate our assessment thereafter,” he said.

On its third attempt, parliament passed a law on 15 October ending the VAT exemption for foreign parcels worth up to €150 from 1 July 2027, and making online marketplaces collect the tax. The Commission had warned the law was one of 12 conditions for the tranche. Fewer than 1% of the 75 million parcels Ukrainians receive each year were taxed, and lawmakers had rejected the measure twice despite IMF pressure.

About €30 billion is in the pipeline for Ukraine this year, mostly under the EU’s €90 billion support loan, if reforms continue, Ujvári said.

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EU announced funding shortfall for Ukraine in 2027

A €70 billion gap for 2027

Current pledges leave a gap of about €70 billion for 2027, Ujvári said, even counting the €45 billion ($52 billion) the EU has set aside for next year and some partners’ commitments.

“We cannot do this all alone. Therefore, our partners in general must step up,” he said. “They have to come forward with pledges, and they have to deliver on those commitments.”

On 16 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked EU leaders for at least €70 billion more for 2027. They tasked the Commission with a proposal but set no deadline. Asked whether it would revisit using frozen Russian assets, Ujvári said it was “a little bit early” to discuss options in that detail. New EU borrowing has also grown costlier: 10-year rates rose from 3.2% to just above 4% in six months, he said.

The €90 billion loan was designed on the assumption that the war would end in 2026. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said Slovakia and Hungary would opt out of new aid but would not block others.

The EU plans to fast-track antitrust approval for Project Bromo, a satellite venture meant to cut Europe's reliance on American space technology, Bloomberg reports. The news comes days after the White House ordered the Pentagon to slow Starshield, the military-grade Starlink service Ukraine's forces use, according to Reuters.

Project Bromo would merge the satellite businesses of Italy’s Leonardo and France’s Airbus and Thales into one company. Bloomberg calls it the bloc’s answer to SpaceX, and the EU sees it as a regional giant able to compete with US and Chinese rivals.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has backed the project, Eunews reports.

“These are the types of industrial champions we need if Europe is to lead in the space economy of tomorrow,” she said at an international space summit in Paris last month, citing Bromo by name.

A year of quiet groundwork before the filing

Over the past year, the partners and EU officials have worked through potential competition concerns so they can be resolved before a formal application, according to Bloomberg. The companies have not yet applied, but Brussels expects them to in the coming weeks.

For large deals, regulators usually hold such preliminary talks to flag obstacles early. If the companies offer concessions, such as selling some assets, the deal could clear after a first-phase review of a little over a month. If competition concerns remain, the Commission could open an in-depth probe lasting several months.

The caveat behind the SpaceX-rival label

A fast review is not a free pass. Competition Commissioner Teresa Ribera has warned that the project cannot expect one, and unions and suppliers have raised concerns about jobs and competition, Bloomberg reports. Von der Leyen’s public backing drew criticism from some members of the European Parliament.

Her support “doesn’t mean we are not going to apply and to enforce our own regulation,” Ribera told Bloomberg TV.

Why it matters to Ukraine

The push is part of a wider European scramble for space autonomy. Ukraine wants to build a satellite system of its own that no single company controls.

This week showed why. After the Starshield order, the military-grade terminals stopped working on fast-moving objects, and now work only at speeds of up to 160 kph, a person in Ukraine’s Defense Ministry told Reuters. Ukrainian officials said the restrictions complicated strike missions against Russian forces and logistics in occupied territory and slowed the interceptor drones that shoot down Shaheds.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged on July 4 that the European Union will help Moldova defend itself against hybrid threats by "agents of autocracy."

"We are committed to protecting you against the hybrid attacks and the energy shocks that your country has been a victim of," von der Leyen said following the EU-Moldova summit in Chisinau.

"Who is behind those attacks is clear to all of us here. These are the same agents of autocracy trying to undermine our democracies everywhere in Europe."

Von der Leyen praised Moldova's support for Ukraine and the EU, noting its acceptance of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees and its assistance with European wildfire response efforts.

The visit was made in show of solidarity with Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, as it prepares for high-stakes parliamentary elections on Sept. 28.

The pro-European government of President Maia Sandu faces a challenge from the pro-Russian Socialist Party, amid growing fears of destabilization ahead of the vote.

Sandu has accused Russia of using its military presence in Moldova's Russian-occupied Transnistria region to stir unrest and derail the country's EU aspirations. On June 12, she warned that Moscow could provoke a crisis in Transnistria to influence the election outcome.

Transnistria has been under Russian-backed separatist control since the early 1990s, with approximately 1,000 to 1,500 Russian troops still stationed in the region.

On June 11, Transnistrian authorities declared a 30-day state of emergency after a sharp drop in natural gas supplies. The unrecognized region has faced mounting energy shortages since January, when Russian energy giant Gazprom halted deliveries in what many see as an attempt to destabilize the situation in Moldova.

Moldova was granted EU candidate status in 2022. Sandu's ruling Party of Action and Solidarity aims to maintain its parliamentary majority and move the country closer to full membership by 2030.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean earlier told the Financial Times that Russia plans to send 10,000 troops to Transnistria and establish a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU's ongoing support for Ukraine at a NATO summit in The Hague on June 24.

"We have designed a funding program of 50 billion euros, we call it Safe, where member states, but also Ukraine and other partners, can take these loans to invest in the (Ukrainian) defense industry," she said, addressing President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"We are integrating our defense industries as if Ukraine was in the EU. This is good for Ukraine. And just as good for Europe, as Ukraine is now home to extraordinary innovation," von der Leyen later said in a post to social media.

NATO is holding a summit in The Hague from June 24-25 with world leaders, including Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump present.

"(M)y dear friend Volodymyr, you're here among friends and we stand by Ukraine from the very first day on and you can count on us also for the future," von der Leyen said.

The leader described the EU's 18th sanctions package as a "biting one" to apply pressure on Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Secondly, of course, there's constant financial support to Ukraine because we know you're fighting a war that is also protecting our values and our principles, and thirdly, indeed, we have to put pressure on President Putin (so) that he comes to the negotiation table," von der Leyen said.

She noted that members of the Group of Seven (G7) will also be implementing additional sanctions against Russia.

"All this shows you are among friends, you can count on us, we stand by your side," von der Leyen said.

The White House has confirmed that Trump and Zelensky will hold a meeting at the NATO summit.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend a NATO summit in The Hague next week, the European Council confirmed on June 20.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte are set to meet Zelensky on June 24.

Zelensky was reportedly reconsidering attending the NATO summit, as questions remain over U.S. President Donald Trump's participation, the Guardian reported on June 17, citing unnamed Ukrainian officials.

A schedule released by the European Council on June 20 confirms Zelensky's planned participation at the event.

A Ukrainian official told the Guardian that Kyiv is in a "permanent hazard" of becoming a victim of "Trump's short attention span," adding that Russia has exploited this uncertainty with fresh aerial attacks.

There were "all sorts of promises for this summit," including U.S. arms, the source said.

Zelensky was scheduled to meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the Group of Seven (G7) Summit, held June 15-17.

Trump left the multilateral event early due to the renewed conflict between Israel and Iran.

Zelensky met with various leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Zelensky left the summit early, citing Russia's mass drone and missile attack on Kyiv.

On June 17, a Russian drone and missile attack on Kyiv killed 30 people and injured another 172. The nearly nine-hour-long strike saw Moscow's forces launch large numbers of drones and missiles at Ukraine's capital.

Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha condemned the attack, describing it as a "massive and brutal strike" timed deliberately to coincide with the G7 summit.

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The Group of Seven (G7) nations need to impose harsher sanctions on Moscow in order to secure a ceasefire in the war against Ukraine, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa said at the start of the G7 summit in Canada.

The G7 Leaders Summit kicked off on June 15 in Kananaskis, Canada, with official talks held June 16-17. While Ukraine hopes to win economic support and unified pressure against Russia, the rapidly escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may dominate this year's conference.

"To achieve peaceful strength we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end," von der Leyen said at a press briefing on June 15 attended by a Kyiv Independent journalist.  

Economic sanctions have been an effective intervention since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, von der Leyen said. She noted that combined G7 and European Union sanctions have decreased Russian oil and gas revenues by nearly 80% since February 2022.

"(T)he sanctions are working, and we will do more," she said.

Von der Leyen urged the G7 to adapt the economic restrictions proposed in the EU's 18th sanctions package, announced on June 10. The new measures target Russia's energy and banking sectors and propose a further reduction in the oil price cap, bringing the cap down from $60 to $45 per barrel.

"I will invite all G7 partners to join us in this endeavor," she said.

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Costa echoed the call for sanctions and the necessity of economic pressure in order to achieve a ceasefire. Europe is committed to "increasing additional sanctions to cripple (Russia's) ability to wage war and pressing for an unconditional ceasefire," he said.

Europe's call for unity may meet with resistance from the United States, which has assumed a dramatically different posture towards Ukraine and Russia since President Donald Trump took office in January. Trump has not imposed any new sanctions against Russia, even Moscow blatantly obstructs peace efforts and escalates mass strikes against Ukrainian cities.

The U.S. also reportedly opposes lowering the G7 oil price cap — a measure first introduced in December 2022 that prohibits Western companies from shipping, insuring, or otherwise servicing Russian oil sold above $60 per barrel.

The price cap debate has become more urgent as oil prices, which had fallen below the $60 cap in recent months, surged following Israel's recent strikes against Iran.

Despite U.S. resistance, the EU and the United Kingdom — backed by other European G7 countries and Canada — have said they are prepared to move forward with the proposal, even without Washington's endorsement.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the other hand, has said the EU sanctions and proposed price cap drop don't go far enough. Zelensky on June 11 said the EU's 18th round of sanctions "could be stronger" and proposed further slashing the oil price cap to $30 per barrel.

"A ceiling of $45 per barrel of oil is better than $60, that's clear, that's true. But real peace will come with a ceiling of $30," he said. "That's the level that will really change the mindset in Moscow."

Zelensky and Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines of the G7 summit on June 17. The meeting will mark their third in-person encounter since Trump took office.

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