Ukrainian forces hit 12 large Russian refineries in September, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said, according to ArmyInform on 12 October. The farthest on the ministry’s list, Lukoil’s refinery in Perm, lies about 1,500 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. Since Trump's 11 October announcement, Euromaidan Press has found no reports of new Ukrainian refinery strikes in the official and unofficial Ukrainian and Russian sources it monitors.

A refinery-for-refinery pause would limit Ukraine’s ability to disrupt Russia’s oil industry while leaving Moscow free to keep attacking Ukraine’s energy system, giving Russia an advantage in a war where both sides use energy infrastructure as a target. The issue has become urgent since Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” on 11 October, after which Ukraine reported holding off strikes on Russian energy facilities while Zelenskyy said Russia attacked several Ukrainian energy sites.

The campaign continued into October. Ukraine’s General Staff said Ukrainian forces struck the Samara oil pumping station overnight into 10 October, the third attack on the station that month, according to Radio Svoboda.

Ukraine held off, Russia hit six energy sites

Zelenskyy said Ukraine had refrained from striking Russian energy facilities overnight on 11–12 October following Trump's announcement. Monitoring channels and official Russian sources did not report any new refinery strikes on 13 October.

“Last night, we did not attack any energy facilities on the territory of Russia because President Trump said that there would be an energy ceasefire,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

He added that Ukraine does not announce its next operational steps. Zelenskyy said Russia attacked six Ukrainian energy facilities on 12 October alone, according to Radio Svoboda.

Refineries first, power plants possibly later

A White House official told Axios that the proposal would begin with both sides halting attacks on oil refineries, with a possible agreement covering power plants to follow. Axios reported that Russia had not accepted a ceasefire.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the proposal, as described, would give Russia a major concession without offering Ukraine anything in return: Russia has scores of operating refineries, while Ukraine has one. ISW also said the proposal would allow Russia to continue its winter strikes on Ukrainian power stations.

Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces have "put out of action" more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity through recent long-range strikes, Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said in a statement published by the Defense Ministry on 4 October. These "carefully thought-out" actions were aimed at "bleeding the Russian war machine" and "destroying its military-economic potential," Khmara said.

Ukraine treats Russia's refineries as a priority target because their revenue helps fund the war. Even Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on 1 October that the strikes had cost Russia 1% of its GDP and had "partially" achieved their goal, Interfax reported.

The ministry did not publish how it calculated the figure.

"The consequences of Ukrainian operations are not always visible immediately. But the effect accumulates and produces a tangible result," the ministry said.

Ukrainian deep strikes continue to bring the war to Russian territory

The ministry named eight recently struck facilities, among others. One of them is the Moscow Oil Refinery, which Ukraine targeted in a massive drone attack on the night of 20 September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. The refinery, operated by Gazprom Neft in Moscow's Kapotnya district, supplies about 40% of Moscow's fuel market and 70% of the Moscow region's demand for gasoline and aviation fuel, according to Russian news Telegram channel Astra.

Another was KINEF, which Ukraine has attacked repeatedly. It is Russia's second-largest oil refinery by capacity, and the Ukrainian military struck it on the night of 30 August, setting off a fire at the facility.

The ministry also named the Yaroslavl, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov, and Syzran refineries and the Ust-Luga port complex.

Ukraine triples production and procurement of long-range drones—and this is not the end

This year, Ukraine has tripled the production and procurement of long-range attack drones, the ministry said.

"This is not the limit. We will continue to scale up deep-strike capabilities," the statement said.

International cooperation is part of that push. Berlin will fund the production of additional DeepStrike-class long-range drones in Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said after a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on 15 April. The sides also agreed to jointly develop and produce a medium- and long-range drone system.

Ukraine and Germany also signed an agreement on the joint production of Bars drones, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on 8 July. The Bars' modular design allows it to be used for deep strikes, among other missions.

Oil refinery output has fallen

Russian refineries cut crude oil processing by 14% in the first nine months of the year compared with the same period last year amid Ukrainian drone attacks, according to calculations by two industry sources.

Experts' estimates of the decline differ widely. In August, Serhii Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center put it at 25–28%, while Russian economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev put it at 65–70%, according to Defense-Aerospace.

Fuel production data give a more concrete picture: in July, Russia's gasoline and diesel output was about a quarter to a third lower than in March 2026, the outlet reported.

Ukraine has destroyed a record 76 Russian air-defense systems this month, and September is not over. The tally beats a record that had stood since July 2023 and reflects a systematic Ukrainian campaign to hunt down Russia's air defenses, opening the skies over occupied territory and inside Russia, the analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said on Telegram.

Ukraine is methodically peeling apart Russia's layered air defense, and September has been its worst month yet: 76 systems destroyed, past the 73 lost in July 2023, by Kovalenko's count, with days still to go.

It is part of a campaign in which Ukrainian drones and special forces have hunted Russian radars and missile launchers across occupied territory and Crimea, and each one destroyed opens a corridor for the next strike.

The record falls with days to spare

Kovalenko credited Ukraine's Defense Forces' sustained hunt for Russian anti-air, which he said pays off twice: it clears the defenses that would otherwise stop Ukraine's strikes, making later attacks on occupied territory and on Russia itself more effective.

Each kill opens a corridor

Ukrainian drone and special-operations units have picked off Pantsir, Tor, Buk, and pieces of S-300 and S-400 systems across occupied territory and Crimea, sometimes several in a single night throughout 2026.

As Russia pulls its scarce long-range systems back to guard Moscow, fewer are left to cover occupied Ukraine, widening the openings for the next wave of Ukrainian strikes.

Russia cannot replace the losses

Over the full-scale war, Kovalenko said, Russia has lost more than 1,673 air-defense systems of every kind, from radars to surface-to-air missiles and self-propelled anti-aircraft guns.

That, he argued, is a level Moscow can no longer make good with a defense industry already stretched thin by the war.

"Such a quantity of equipment Russia will never be able to restore and compensate," he thinks.

He added that this means it would no longer be able to return to the pre-war level of closing the sky, neither technically nor technologically."

Russia's best defenses against ballistic missiles ring Moscow, leaving much of the rest of the country exposed to Ukraine's growing missile arsenal. That concentration is why Ukraine's homegrown ballistic missiles could cause Russia real trouble beyond the capital, even as Russia's air defenses show gaps elsewhere, expert Vadym Kushnikov says, Ukrainian Radio reports.

Russia has the systems to stop ballistic missiles, Kushnikov continues, but it has massed the best of them around Moscow: the S-500 "Prometey", with interceptors adapted from the A-135, the Soviet-era shield built to defend the capital from missiles.

Other regions, by his assessment, are left more open to Ukraine's massed and combined strikes. That matters now that Ukraine's own ballistic missile, such as the Sapsan, is entering combat.

The best defenses ring Moscow

"If you analyze the characteristics, Russia today has concentrated its most modern S-500 complexes, with 77N6-N and 77N6-N1 interceptors, in Moscow Oblast," Kushnikov says.

Elsewhere, he said, Russia is short of air-defense complexes, the S-400 among them, a shortfall he said is visible in satellite imagery.

Ukraine's ballistic program grows

Ukraine's deep-strike arsenal has been shifting from foreign-supplied systems to homegrown ones. Alongside its Neptune and Flamingo cruise missiles, it now fields the Sapsan, an Iskander-class ballistic missile with a range of about 500 kilometers, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed was in combat late last year.

A domestic ballistic missile will let Ukraine strike deep inside Russia without waiting for a Western green light.

Production faces hard hurdles

Building them is the hard part. Ukraine's rocket-engineering tradition runs deep, Kushnikov suggests, but its production sites, mostly in the east, are direct targets of Russian strikes.

The missiles also depend on components that are difficult to make, chiefly solid-fuel rocket engines and the guidance that steers a warhead flying at five times the speed of sound along a ballistic arc.

"The combination of all these factors is exactly what our engineers have worked on for years, building the Ukrainian ballistic shield," he adds.