Journalists from 17 European public service broadcasters, coordinated by the European Broadcasting Union’s (EBU) Eurovision News Spotlight network, published an interactive map on 23 October 2026. It documents hybrid incidents linked to Russia across 17 European countries between 1 April and 15 October. Journalists compiled a database of hundreds of reported incidents, categorizing each by type and the source and strength of its alleged links to Russia, then verifying them through open-source research.

The map comes as officials warn the campaign is growing. On 28 September, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in Brussels that Russia was planning more acts of sabotage to divide societies and intimidate them into abandoning their support for Ukraine. The points on the map represent an incomplete list of publicly known cases attributed to Russia or suspected of being linked to it, the report states.

The map covers airspace violations, sabotage attempts, “disposable” agents with no formal intelligence training, migration used as a weapon, and Russian military activity near or across European borders. It excludes cyberattacks, influence operations, and espionage by trained intelligence officers.

The EBU calls the result a very conservative estimate, not an official tally. Russia has consistently denied responsibility for the incidents. Many single points represent several incidents of the same type in one area or in quick succession. In Moldova, for example, Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi said on 30 September that the government had recorded 84 drone incursions.

Four German incidents are on the map, out of many more

The map shows four incidents in Germany, according to BR.

• On 2 August, German authorities arrested a 33-year-old Ukrainian man in Thuringia on suspicion of photographing a Bavarian weapons manufacturer for a foreign intelligence service as part of an alleged sabotage plot.
• On 4 August, a drone carrying explosives and a detonator struck the wing of a Ukrainian An-124 cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport but failed to explode.
• On 3 September, attackers threw firebombs from a car onto a construction site next to defense firms in Munich, and German security authorities suspect Russian intelligence.
• On 14 September, investigators learned of a crashed drone found near the Bundeswehr’s Wunstorf air base.

Internal papers from the new Joint Hybrid Defense Center, seen by Correctiv, record 163 suspected sabotage cases in 2026 up to 19 August. The targets included rail lines, military facilities, substations, and radio masts. The same papers record 1,034 drone overflights of critical infrastructure, military sites, and defense companies, and 25 espionage investigations. The papers cover possible attacks by Russia, China, and Iran, and media did not report a breakdown of the sabotage cases by country.

European leaders sound the alarm over Russian hybrid attacks

On 15 April, Swedish civil defense minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin said pro-Russian groups had moved from denial-of-service attacks to attempts at destructive cyberattacks, including one on a Swedish power plant in 2025. On 1 September, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul named Russia as the perpetrator of the Leipzig attack and accused Moscow of “blatant hostility” toward Germany.

On 18 September, French President Emmanuel Macron said Russia’s hybrid attacks would not go unanswered and ordered a plan to protect France’s critical infrastructure. On 1 October, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany was preparing for new hybrid attacks, “including serious ones.” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on 14 October called the attacks a sign of Russian weakness at a press conference in Tallinn and said NATO would react where needed without being “rattled.”

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) warned that Russia may stage sabotage in Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic states, and blame Ukraine for the attacks, in a Telegram post on 23 October.

The warning comes three days after The Wall Street Journal reported that US intelligence traces Europe’s sabotage wave to Putin’s personal order. If Russia stages new attacks and pins them on Ukraine, as HUR warns, European anger could turn on Kyiv rather than the Kremlin. This goes further than HUR’s statement on 2 October, which named potential Russian targets in Europe but did not mention a plan to blame Ukraine for attacks.

HUR says Moscow wants to discredit Ukraine’s army

Russia is stepping up its hybrid strategy to destabilize the European Union, according to HUR. The agency identified two aims: reducing foreign support for Ukraine by discrediting its Defense Forces, and intimidating European governments and societies.

The accusations would be spread through Russian propaganda channels and international platforms accessible to the Kremlin.

Potential targets include infrastructure and Russian Orthodox Church sites

HUR listed several potential targets for Russian provocations:

• critical infrastructure and areas bordering Russia;
• the Kaliningrad exclave;
• areas of EU countries with Russian-speaking populations;
• Kremlin-controlled sites, including properties belonging to the Russian Orthodox Church network;
• historical sites associated with Russia.

The list reflects HUR’s assessment of potential targets, not confirmation that attacks at these locations are planned.

Earlier warnings and reported sabotage

On 2 October, HUR said Russian intelligence services had been ordered to increase activity in EU and NATO countries. It named military facilities, critical infrastructure, communications systems, and Starlink ground stations as potential targets and said it had alerted partners.

Warnings of Russian false flags on NATO’s eastern flank predate HUR’s. In August, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed European intelligence official, that Russia might expand hybrid attacks against Poland and the Baltic states, including false-flag attacks. A European government official separately told the agency that the CIA had warned countries in the region of a possible Russian attack. Lithuania’s military intelligence had warned earlier in August that Moscow might reassemble captured Ukrainian drones for false-flag strikes on critical infrastructure in the Baltic region.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on 20 October that US intelligence agencies believe the attempted drone attack on Leipzig-Halle Airport in Germany in early August was among the opening shots of a sabotage campaign ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Journal cited European officials briefed on the intelligence findings.

According to the newspaper, at least three drones carrying military-grade Semtex explosives were involved. One struck an Antonov cargo plane used to transport military aid to Ukraine but failed to explode. Another collided with a different aircraft, while a third detonated near the airport perimeter. German newspaper Welt am Sonntag has since named two suspects, citing German investigation files. Earlier German media reports described the sequence differently.

The Journal also reported sabotage attacks on Starlink stations in Poland, Lithuania, and Bulgaria in recent weeks. In August, Slovak authorities said they had foiled a planned arson attack on a Ukrainian drone factory, the Journal reported.

Russia denies involvement in sabotage in Europe. Responding to Berlin’s accusations over the Leipzig incident in early September, Putin asked where the evidence was.

Russia has started fitting its enlarged Gerbera-2 drones with a 10-kg warhead and an extra bag of incendiary mixture, Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi reported on 18 October. The setup is designed to start a fire where the drone hits and is probably meant for attacks on critical infrastructure and warehouses, the outlet said.

Russia’s industry makes about 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones a month, Ukraine’s military intelligence has said, and Russian strikes have destroyed 2.1 million m² of Ukraine’s modern warehouse space since the full-scale invasion began. A cheap drone that carries fire adds one more threat for air defenses that already let nearly half of Russia’s jet-powered Shaheds through.

A fire bag behind the warhead

Ukrainian Telegram channel Polkovnyk HSh posted photos of the payload on 17 October. Gerbera-2 strike and reconnaissance drones had begun to appear with a 10-kg high-explosive fragmentation-incendiary warhead and an extra package of incendiary mixture, the channel wrote. They navigate with Kometa-M12, a 12-element antenna array designed to resist jamming, it added.

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In the photos, the incendiary mixture sits in a separate soft plastic tank behind the main warhead, Militarnyi said. Gerbera-2s have been seen with warheads of 4 to 10 kg depending on range, while strike versions of the original Gerbera usually carried up to 5 kg, the outlet noted.

Half a Shahed engine

Russia has mainly fielded the Gerbera, a cheap drone shaped like a Shahed, as a decoy and reconnaissance platform flying alongside Shahed-type strike drones. It has also used bigger Gerberas to drop FPV drones.

Serhii Beskrestnov, now an adviser to Ukraine’s president, flagged a much bigger Gerbera in Ukraine’s skies on 7 August. The Gerbera-2 has a larger airframe, a reshaped wing, and a bigger tail fin, Militarnyi said. In August, the outlet reported it had a stronger piston engine: half of the one in the Shahed-type Geran-2, at about 275 cm³. Production of these engines was set up at the Izhevsk Motorcycle Plant, according to preliminary information the outlet cited.

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Earlier versions ran on a Chinese DLE60 model-aircraft engine of about 61 cm³. The switch was likely possible because Geran-2 engine output partly freed up as jet-powered Geran-4s took a growing share of Russia’s drones, Militarnyi said. The Gerbera-2’s fuel tank also holds up to 63 liters, against 10 liters on the original.

One reached Poland’s Baltic coast

In September, a drone preliminarily identified as a Gerbera-2 was recovered from the Baltic Sea near Rusinowo, on Poland’s coast. It carried a high-explosive fragmentation warhead of about 4 kg, a Polish military prosecutor said.

Ukrainian and Japanese officials discussed establishing backup bridge crossings in the event of Russian strikes, preparing municipal infrastructure for winter, and Japan's continued assistance with Ukraine's recovery, Ukraine's Minister for Restoration, Infrastructure and Transport, Mykola Kalashnyk, reported on 14 October.

Russia is targeting Kyiv's bridges to paralyze the city and break civilian morale, defense analyst Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote in The Telegraph. On 1 and 2 October, Russia attacked Kyiv's Southern Bridge, then struck the Northern Bridge on 3 and 4 October. Ukraine is now working with international partners to establish backup bridge crossings that could maintain connectivity even if major routes are damaged.

The discussions took place during a meeting between Minister Kalashnyk, Japan's Ambassador to Ukraine Yo Osumi, and Osamu Hattori, head of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) office in Ukraine, according to the statement.

Backup crossings could prevent logistical disruptions if major bridges are damaged

Kyiv's Southern Bridge, for example, plays a critical role in logistics because freight traffic uses it, transport planning expert Dmytro Bespalov noted in an article for Ukrainska Pravda. At the same time, installing additional metal structures to reinforce bridges could be dangerous given their technical condition and existing load levels, he said.

One potential solution is to establish backup bridge crossings.

Ukraine and JICA have agreed to continue working together on engineering solutions for setting up these crossings. Japan has already delivered 720 meters of prefabricated bridge structures to Ukraine, which are expected to be used to create alternative routes if Russia's attacks damage major bridges, Kalashnyk said.

The initiative is intended to help maintain transportation links, ensure the delivery of critical supplies, and preserve evacuation routes for civilians.

Ukraine prepares water utilities and boiler plants for winter amid the threat of Russian infrastructure strikes

During the meeting, Ukraine and JICA discussed equipping water utilities with backup power supplies, addressing the need for modular boiler plants, and obtaining equipment to ensure uninterrupted heating and water services. Ukraine has already submitted lists of the necessary equipment to JICA for consideration as part of a new emergency assistance project, Kalashnyk said.

An intercepted document outlining an alleged Russian plan for strikes against Ukraine this winter reportedly describes attacks on 60 critical infrastructure facilities using up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and aerial bombs. Potential targets include electrical substations, hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, boiler facilities, and infrastructure related to water supply and wastewater management.

The document also describes potential strikes on facilities in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and several other cities. Such attacks could disrupt electricity, heating, water supply, and wastewater services.

Russian attacks have injured 1,125 Kyiv residents since the start of 2026. Of these, 379 people, or nearly 34%, were injured in just five weeks, from 27 August to 7 October, Tetiana Mostepan, director of the Kyiv City State Administration’s Department of Health, said in an interview published on 13 October.

Russian air attacks on Kyiv have intensified since late August. Air attacks occur both day and night, and Russian drones target not only military facilities but also civilian buildings, including apartments. As a result, the number of casualties is also increasing. More than 40% of emergency medical responses to attacks this year occurred between late August and early October, Mostepan noted.

During this period, the capital’s emergency medical teams responded to 782 calls related to the attacks, the department director said. She also released data showing that 138 medical facilities in Kyiv have been damaged since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, including 47 this year.

“And when we talk about statistics, I always emphasize that behind every number is a human life. These are people who have been injured, as well as medical workers who respond to attack sites to save them,” Mostepan said.

Russian attacks on Kyiv have become more frequent

Russia attacked Kyiv with drones throughout the day, Suspilne Kyiv reported on 27 August. Air raid alerts were issued 12 times in the capital, drone debris was found in five districts, and at least four people were injured, the report said. Russian forces used about 140 attack drones against Ukraine throughout the day, more than 100 of them jet-powered, the Ukrainian Air Force reported at the time.

At least 38 people were killed and dozens injured in a Russian drone strike on an ammunition depot in the Bucha district near Kyiv, triggering a massive fire and hours of explosions in a residential area, CNN reported. The attack in the Bucha district came amid near-constant Russian airstrikes, which continued into Sunday, the outlet reported.

Russian forces were likely seeking to exhaust Ukraine’s air defenses, disrupt civilians’ daily lives, and increase the scale of destruction, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said, citing CNN’s reporting.

On 8 September, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stressed the urgent need to strengthen support for Ukraine, particularly by providing air defense systems. Delays in delivering assistance cost human lives, he said.

On 1 October, a Russian drone struck a school in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district while 104 children were inside, Suspilne reported. Students and school staff took shelter, so no one was injured, the report said.

Russian attacks continue after Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire

Following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire, Russia continued striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, including in Kyiv. On 13 October, Russian ballistic missiles struck Kyiv, hitting a thermal power plant in the second attack in 24 hours without advance warning from Ukraine’s allies, Zelenskyy said. The evening and morning strikes killed four people in Kyiv, three of them women in a high-rise in Desnianskyi district, Kyiv prosecutors said.

Russia attacked energy and critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Kyiv Oblast, and Kharkiv with 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 attack drones, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 14 October. At least 600,000 people were left without electricity, he said. Later that day, an accident on the grid cut power to part of Kyiv’s right bank, energy company DTEK said.

German industry expects Russian sabotage against the country’s companies to persist and take more forms, the deputy head of the Federation of German Industries (BDI) told Handelsblatt. His warning follows alarms from Germany’s intelligence services, which describe the country as a main target of Russia’s covert campaign in Europe.

Russia keeps striking Ukrainian cities and power plants every day while trying to weaken the European support that keeps Ukraine fighting. Germany is home to arms makers producing with and for Ukraine, so pressure on its companies targets the supply behind Ukraine’s defense.

Industry expects attacks to last and change form

The warning came from Holger Lösch, the BDI’s deputy managing director.

“German industry is preparing for the threat to persist and for attack methods to become more varied,” he told Handelsblatt. “Companies don’t end up in the crosshairs by chance,” he added.

Russian influence and sabotage operations are no longer an abstract scenario, and companies, critical infrastructure, and defense supply chains are already among their targets, Lösch said. Companies now receive more threat warnings, and their cooperation with the authorities has improved significantly, he noted. “What is still missing are joint procedures to quickly derive concrete measures from warnings,” Lösch said, calling the protection of the economy a cornerstone of national security.

German intelligence describes a Russian shadow war

The warning comes a week after a public hearing of the intelligence oversight panel of the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, on 5 October. There, Martin Jäger, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said Russia was waging a shadow war against Germany. “Germany has become a main obstacle to Russian hegemonic power projection in Europe and thus a target of Russian action,” Jäger said. “The danger of attacks against targets in Germany remains real and present,” he warned.

Sinan Selen, head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, told the same hearing that Russia was showing a readiness for sabotage and killings.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on 1 October that Germany was preparing for further hybrid attacks, “including serious ones,” and would respond “quickly and very clearly,” as it did after the drone attack at Leipzig airport.

Drone bombs, arson, and paid saboteurs on German soil

In August, a drone carrying Semtex explosives hit the wing of a Ukrainian An-124 cargo plane at Leipzig/Halle Airport but did not explode. Germany blamed Russia on 1 September, and German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany was not at war with Russia but was a “target of war.”

German authorities suspect Russian intelligence of commissioning an arson attack near two Munich defense firms, and a confidential Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) assessment counted more than 165 suspected sabotage cases in Germany between January and August. The same assessment recorded 747 suspicious drone incidents involving 1,068 drones over critical infrastructure, military sites, and defense companies.

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Germany’s Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD) warns that the threat from low-level agents, locals paid small sums for one-off jobs such as arson or photographing military sites, has increased significantly. European intelligence agencies also report that Russia is increasingly targeting defense company executives, including at smaller drone makers, and the BfV has advised some German firms to hire close protection.

As long as Germany keeps backing Ukraine, Russian pressure on its companies is unlikely to ease, and the gap between warnings and action that industry flagged leaves smaller firms, with fewer resources for security, the most exposed.

Russia is planning a winter strike campaign involving up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and bombs targeting, among other facilities, electrical substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants, and boiler houses. The information is contained in a document that, according to sources cited by The New York Times, Ukraine's Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented as an intercepted Russian plan to destroy energy infrastructure systematically. The newspaper reported on 2 October.

Russia has been striking critical infrastructure across Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion. Such attacks have become particularly frequent ahead of and during winter. Ukraine's recent battlefield gains may have prompted Putin to reconsider his strategy and attempt to force Ukraine to surrender through winter strikes, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest. Russia's reported plans to attack Ukraine's energy, water supply, and sewage systems could threaten the basic living conditions of millions of people. Such strikes could increase pressure on civilians and the Ukrainian economy while forcing the state to divert more resources to emergency infrastructure repairs instead of defense needs.

The New York Times was unable to verify the document's authenticity independently, but noted that it was written in Russian and dated August.

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A representative of Ukraine's defense-industrial sector who has reviewed the document believes it is more of a calculation than a finalized Russian military operations plan, according to Schemes, an investigative journalism project by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), in a report published on 8 October.

60 targets: how Russia could attack Ukraine's critical infrastructure

The document outlines how many missiles, drones, and bombs Russia would need to deprive Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa of electricity, heating, water, and sewage services, Radio Liberty reported on 9 October. The document's full list of priority cities also includes Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih, Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Lviv, Vinnytsia, and Ivano-Frankivsk.

According to the document, Russia plans to begin by attacking substations near Ukraine's western border, through which the country receives electricity from Europe. Hydroelectric power plants could be targeted next, followed by facilities intended to shut down Ukraine's three operational nuclear power plants, Radio Liberty reports. The document lists a total of 60 key targets.

According to Schemes, the document states that Russia would need up to 770 Molniya and Geran drones, Dan-T/Banderol missile-drones, 170 FAB guided aerial bombs, and 75 Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles to carry out the attacks.

Sewage systems could become Russia's next target

The document devotes particular attention to water supply and wastewater systems. These include pumping stations, treatment facilities, and other infrastructure essential for cities to provide residents with water and dispose of wastewater.

Russia has not previously attacked such facilities on a similar scale, The New York Times notes.

Preparing for possible attacks on water supply and sewage systems is significantly more difficult than protecting energy infrastructure, Oleh Popenko, head of the Ukrainian Union of Utility Services Consumers, told Current Time, RFE/RL's Russian-language network.

“Sewage is a very complex system. There are specific challenges: where to discharge wastewater, how to organize treatment facilities, and so on. Some work is also underway in this sector, but it will be much more difficult here than with district heating utilities,” Popenko says.

Creating alternative routes in case sewage pumping stations are destroyed is an expensive and technically challenging task, he adds. Such construction could cost billions of hryvnias.

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The priority is to equip water utilities with backup power sources so they can continue operating during power outages. However, if Russian strikes damage the sewage system itself, resolving the problem quickly will be much more difficult, Popenko believes. Specific solutions, including wastewater disposal and the operation of treatment facilities, will have to be determined according to the extent of the damage.

Sewage pumping stations play a particularly important role. They pump wastewater onward for disposal and treatment. If such a station is put out of operation by a strike, the city needs an alternative way to divert wastewater while the damaged facility is being repaired, Popenko says. Bypass pipes or channels could be installed for this purpose, but setting up such a system during wartime is far from easy.

Air defenses remain crucial to Ukraine's winter preparations

Preparations for winter are underway, but protection for energy infrastructure remains inadequate, Popenko believes. The main concern is large substations that transmit electricity from nuclear power plants and distribute electricity imported from Europe.

At the same time, some protective measures are already proving effective. Despite drone attacks over two days, one of Kyiv's substations withstood the strikes, and the city did not lose power, although scheduled outages were in effect, the expert says.

Popenko considers a repeat of last winter's scenario, when parts of Kyiv went without heating for weeks, entirely possible. Russian forces continue to attack energy facilities, and in his assessment, strengthening air defenses in Kyiv is the only way to protect its combined heat and power (CHP) plants from large-scale attacks.

“There are no other ways — for example, building some sarcophagi around CHPs or constructing shelters — because Russia can destroy these facilities again through massive strikes. And then the city risks being left 50–60% without heat,” Popenko believes.

Residents are also preparing for winter, but their options vary, he says. Some homeowners' associations participate in government programs to insulate apartment buildings and purchase backup power supplies for elevators and pumping stations. Owners of private houses are buying generators, among other measures. However, such equipment and preparations require substantial funds, meaning not everyone can afford them, he notes.

Ukraine has already experienced prolonged power outages during previous winters, particularly in 2022 and 2023. At the time, some regions went without electricity for 18–20 hours a day, the expert says. This experience may help people prepare for possible disruptions, but it does not eliminate the risk of further attacks and infrastructure damage.

Russian drones and missiles struck Kyiv data centers over 23–24 September, knocking out internet and hosting providers. The Digital Transformation Ministry said about 100,000 subscribers lost service, NV Business reported.

Russia has widened its air campaign from power plants and warehouses to railways, fuel stations, and now digital infrastructure as it tries to grind down the country's ability to function before another war winter.

"You'd have to destroy 70-80% of Kyiv's buildings"

MiroHost founder and Internet Invest Group head Oleksandr Olshanskyi told NV Business the attack destroyed his own data center.

"Most critically important data and systems have been moved abroad or to the cloud," Olshanskyi said. "If an online store stops working, that's unpleasant but not a tragedy."

He called rumors about a full internet blackout or sharp service price hikes baseless.

"Destroying all internet in a simple way is impossible—you'd have to use nuclear or chemical weapons or destroy 70-80% of buildings in Kyiv," he said.

What Russia hit

The strikes damaged a Kyiv data center housing UTELS switching equipment on 23 September. Overnight into 24 September, Russia destroyed equipment of hosting provider CityHost.UA and the data center housing MiroHost. About 95% of MiroHost's clients operate outside Ukraine and were unaffected, he said. Russia also struck the Pavutyna network's data center. Crazy Network said a missile struck Kyiv's central traffic exchange hub, cutting service for its subscribers in Vinnytsia, Kyiv, and Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

Providers KIEVNET, Domonet, FAUST, and Etherlink also reported disruptions. Ukraine's telecom regulator NKEK said on 24 September that providers were completing emergency restoration, and Domonet estimated service would return by 21:00 that evening.

The 23 September strikes killed two people and injured more than 40, and hit a college building in Kyiv while students were on campus, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote that evening. Russia targeted major Ukrainian data centers "seeking to disrupt the flow of information," he said. "This is critical civilian infrastructure that ensures people can access life-saving information. It is not a military target."

"More sanctions pressure, more missile interceptors are the only way to stop this terror," Sybiha wrote. "These attacks must not become the new normal."

Panic, not military gain

Olshanskyi said Russia uses these strikes to spread fear, not achieve lasting results.

"The enemy's goal is to cause damage, inflame panic, and heighten nervousness," he said.

His data center's destruction "will not affect the situation at the front in any way," he said.