The Russian navy still has enough missile-armed warships in its battered Black Sea Fleet to sustain Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, if recent launches are any indication.

Overnight on 19 August, an unscathed Russian corvette lobbed eight Kalibrs at Ukraine. Seven were intercepted. The eighth struck the Antonov Aircraft Plant in Kyiv, according to the open-source monitor OSINT Warfare, in an attack that killed 15 overall. Ukrainian commanders had hoped that wouldn't be possible. A week earlier, they thought they had knocked the Kalibr shooters out of the fight.

Overnight on 12 August, Ukrainian drones and missiles targeted the Black Sea Fleet's main anchorage in Novorossiysk in southern Russia. Russians on the ground recorded fireballs billowing into the night sky, seemingly indicating significant damage to the port or its moored warships, potentially including the Black Sea Fleet's seven or eight surviving frigates, corvettes, and submarines that are compatible with the 2,500-km Kalibr.

The Ukrainian general staff in Kyiv claimed its forces had struck three Kalibr carriers—the frigates Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen and a Buyan-M corvette—as well as a lightly armed guard ship. But the uncertainty was, and still is, high. Even the general staff stressed its munitions had inflicted "varying degrees" of damage "according to preliminary information."

"Information is being clarified," the general staff stressed.

When the sun rose over the following days, commercial satellites snapped high-resolution photos of Novorossiysk, helping analysts assess damage from the 12 August strikes. The photos were hard to interpret. Yes, there were dark patches on the hulls of the two frigates and single corvette, but the discoloration didn't necessarily indicate drone or missile damage—to say nothing of confirming serious damage.

The pro-Ukraine Conflict Intelligence Team concluded Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen "sustained damage in the area of their launchers," potentially impacting the ships' ability to fire Kalibrs.

A later battle-damage assessment by OSINT account Absolutely Reliable Source said both frigates had suffered critical damage. It assessed that direct hits on Admiral Essen destroyed its eight-cell 3S14 vertical launch system for Kalibr missiles, while strikes on Admiral Makarov caused an internal detonation and burned out its 3S14 launch cells. The account said both ships had lost their strike capability and would require extensive repairs.

Uncertainty

Caution was prudent. In the first three years of Russia's wider war on Ukraine, Ukrainian forces succeeded in destroying or damaging around two dozen of the roughly 85 large ships in the Black Sea Fleet. Perhaps most notably, a pair of Ukrainian Neptune cruise missiles holed and sank the Russian missile cruiser Moskva in April 2022.

But the strikes mostly missed the Kalibr carriers. Yes, the Ukrainians took out a Kalibr-armed Improved Kilo-class submarine in September 2023 and a Karakurt-class corvette, also armed with Kalibrs, in November 2023. But that left at least seven Kalibr shooters in the Black Sea Fleet. Eight if the Russians have managed to repair the Improved Kilo that apparently suffered some damage from a Ukrainian one-way unmanned attack submarine back in December.

It wasn't for a lack of trying that Ukrainian forces failed to eliminate, or even seriously dent, the Black Sea Fleet's Kalibr capacity prior to the 12 August raid on Novorossiysk. On 22 May, Fire Point FP-1 drones operated by the Ukrainian 414th Separate Unmanned Strike Aviation System Brigade motored the roughly 430 km to Novorossiysk and spotted a warship moored to a pier.

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The 414th Brigade believed it was Admiral Essen—and also believed it may have hit the ship. "The frigate Admiral Essen … entered the strike zone," the brigade crowed. "Damage level unknown."

In fact, it seems the ship the propeller-driven FP-1 barreled toward, and potentially struck with its warhead, wasn't Admiral Essen. The vessel in the FP-1's video feed, relayed via satellite or a mesh radio network, appeared to be a derelict Krivak-class frigate. Not Admiral Essen.

It was yet another near miss. Earlier, on 6 April, FP-1s dove down on Admiral Makarov. The Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces posted footage from the FP-1s' forward-facing thermal cameras that indicated the drones got close to Admiral Makarov. But the footage didn't point to an obvious hit.

Overhead satellite imagery from later on 6 April seemingly told a more complete story. The drones may have left a scorch mark on the frigate's bow, but there was no sign of structural damage. If the 12 August raid really did inflict meaningful damage on Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen and a Buyan-M, it represented a profound reversal for Ukrainian forces. After trying and trying again for months, they'd finally hit some of the ships that really mattered among the survivors of the Black Sea Fleet.

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The problem for the Ukrainians is that, even if three Kalibr shooters are temporarily out of the fight, there are still four, possibly five, Kalibr shooters left. And that's enough to sustain frequent attacks on Ukrainian cities. A single Buyan-M corvette can fire eight Kalibrs at a time. And eight, as it turns out, is a typical number of Kalibrs in the mix when Russian air, sea, and ground forces launch their combined drone and missile barrages.

The Black Sea Fleet reminded everyone of that uncomfortable fact overnight on 19 August. A Buyan-M corvette at Novorossiysk fired eight Kalibrs—exactly one magazine—into a barrage that also carried Onyx and Zircon missiles, Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles, three dozen air-launched cruise missiles, and 168 drones. Ukrainian air defenses stopped seven of the eight Kalibrs. They could not stop the ballistic missiles, and the eighth Kalibr got through to the Antonov plant, which had already been hit that night by Iskanders and Zircons.

If the attack on 12 August actually did eliminate or even just temporarily sideline three Kalibr carriers, it still represents a partial victory for Ukraine. It's likely no fewer than four shooters remain. And given how long it took Ukrainian deep strike forces to maybe damage Admiral Makarov and Admiral Essen and that Buyan-M, the Black Sea Fleet may be able to continue blasting away at Ukrainian cities for many months to come.

• World No 1 makes ‘difficult decision’ to miss slam

• Draper still recovering from bone bruise in left arm

Jannik Sinner will miss the US Open with a right knee injury. The world No 1 has not played a match since beating Alexander Zverev last month to successfully defend his Wimbledon title, missing the Masters 1000 events in Canada and Cincinnati. Great Britain’s Jack Draper is also out of the event.

The news comes a day after his great rival Carlos Alcaraz, whom the Italian lost to in the final in New York 12 months ago, revealed he will make his comeback at Flushing Meadows after four months out with a wrist injury.

Department of Justice plan raises questions over its ability to recruit so many people – and what they would do

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Former officials and voting rights experts have expressed skepticism over a pledge by the Trump administration to dispatch 1,000 monitors across the country to scrutinize November’s US midterm elections.

While the Department of Justice (DoJ) has expressed hope that the operation will be the largest in its history, its plan raised questions over its ability to recruit so many people – and what they would do.

Exclusive: Rahil Prakash tells the Guardian: ‘I wanted to see if fake polls could penetrate the ecosystem that easily’

A 21-year-old recent college graduate was behind an anonymous website that put out widely shared fake election polling in Wisconsin, Nevada and California, the Guardian can reveal.

The website, Median Strategies, abruptly shut down and withdrew its polling earlier this week following questions from a reporter from the Los Angeles Times. In an unsigned statement, it described a “short-term social experiment” to examine how fake polling “could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification”.

With one semi-final in her last seven tournaments, the coming months will define the next stage of her career

Towards the end of a messy first set tie-break late on Wednesday, Aryna Sabalenka wildly sprayed another painfully nervous backhand before slamming her racket to the ground. As the racket connected with the acrylic floor, its vibration dampener detached from the strings and rolled off in the direction of the broadcast camera pit by the side of the court.

With the diminutive 20-year‑old Czech player Sara Bejlek leading Sabalenka 6-5 in the tie-break, this slapstick sequence forced play to pause while the Belarusian and a couple of volunteers comically searched for the missing vibration damper underneath the cameras until she gave up and retrieved a new one. A few minutes later, Sabalenka trailed by a set.

• Total prize pool for tournament will be $108m

• Players guaranteed $140,000 for making first round

The world’s leading tennis players have welcomed the US Open’s announcement of a 20% increase in prize money and agreed not to continue their protests at this year’s tournament as a result.

The build up to both the French Open and Wimbledon was overshadowed earlier this year by a media boycott as the players continue to demand a greater share of tournament revenues, but after the US Tennis Association announced a record prize pot of $108m there will be no such disruption at Flushing Meadow.

Manny Rutinel hopes price-tag politics can win key voters in Colorado House race

During his presidential campaign in October 2024, Donald Trump staged a photo op at a McDonald’s franchise in Pennsylvania, where he was briefly taught how to work the fryer and drive-thru window at the closed restaurant, while making several unsubstantiated claims about Kamala Harris’s past summer job at McDonald’s.

The posturing around McDonald’s garnered significant publicity, as Trump and Republicans capitalized on an affordability crisis triggered by high inflation that occurred globally due to the Covid pandemic.

The US Army Contracting Command—Detroit Arsenal has published a market survey seeking companies that can supply components for M2A2 ODS-SA Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) headed to Ukraine—parts that original manufacturers have stopped making. The posting asks for firms with immediate access to the components or a realistic plan to restart their production, Militarnyi reported.

Maintaining Western armored vehicles in active combat has strained repair chains throughout the war, with licensing requirements and long lead times slowing restoration of battle-damaged equipment. When components go out of production entirely, the problem shifts from delayed repairs to no repairs at all.

Parts nobody makes

The survey targets components affected by what the command calls an aging manufacturing base. Original suppliers have discontinued production of multiple subsystems, including turret drive control units, transmission control modules, heater mounts, ammunition chutes, specialized Dialight Corp lens assemblies, and other structural, electrical, and mechanical parts unique to the M2A2 ODS-SA.

The posting is not a tender and does not guarantee a contract. Its stated goal is to identify companies that can either deliver the parts now or credibly restart production.

Restoring and sustaining Bradleys for Ukraine

The parts shortage creates a two-stage problem. Before Bradleys can be shipped to Ukraine, the US military refurbishes them at its depots—restoring each vehicle to combat-ready condition under a standard called Fully Mission Capable + Safety. Without the discontinued components, that refurbishment stalls.

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The same parts are also needed to keep Bradleys already fighting in Ukraine on the road. The posting specifies that field servicing must proceed without delays caused by parts shortages—meaning the crisis affects both the pipeline into Ukraine and the fleet already there.

Potential contractors must demonstrate repair and technical validation capabilities, supply chain management, and the ability to quickly resume manufacturing of parts that no longer have a producer. The command requires a detailed transition plan with a timeline from contract signing to the delivery of the first restored vehicle.

The US also plans to involve the future contractor in training Ukrainian military mechanics. The contractor would develop courses, manuals, and provide specialized tools and equipment—including instruction on armored recovery vehicles.

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The 25-mm cannon, stops T-72s, if the turret still turns

The M2 Bradley carries infantry into combat and mounts a 25-mm M242 Bushmaster cannon that fires up to 500 rounds per minute and can defeat Russian light armored vehicles and the side and rear armor of main battle tanks. The US has supplied more than 200 Bradleys to Ukraine under the previous administration, with combat losses mounting across multiple frontline sectors.

Separately, the US Army presented XM30 infantry fighting vehicle candidates at the Michigan Defense Expo 2026—the program is eventually designed to replace the Bradley.

Ukraine's southeastern counteroffensive has rolled back Russian advances at the intersections of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian attacks set back, by months if not years, the Russian plan for marching on Zaporizhzhia City from the northeast.

But there's a shorter path for the Russians: the southern approach through the town of Orikhiv, around 50 km from Zaporizhzhia City. And the Russians may not need to travel all of it. The stated Russian objective on this axis, according to the Institute for the Study of War, is to advance within tube artillery range of Zaporizhzhia City—which means getting to within 20 or 30 km of a regional capital, not capturing it. That is what Russian forces did to Kharkiv.

The route is short but hard. And for three years, it has been blocked at its first obstacle by the ruins of a prison.

The first obstacle for the Russians is the village of Mala Tokmachka. In particular, the thickly built ruins of a former prison, which function as an interlocking series of bunkers for the Ukrainian 118th Mechanized Brigade. The second obstacle is Orikhiv itself, which sits astride all the passable roads leading to Zaporizhzhia City.

The Russian Defense Ministry announced the capture of Mala Tokmachka on 16 November 2025. Ukrainian government sources still had the village under Ukrainian control in April 2026. Russian milblogger Boris Rozhin's repeated claims that the village was nearly cleared became, in Meduza's account, the most popular Russian military meme of the first half of 2026—shorthand for the distance between what the Russian army announces and what it holds.

Observer Thorkill has watched closely as Russian forces have probed for weaknesses in Ukrainian defenses between the disputed gray zone and Zaporizhzhia City—and found very few.

The Russian army's 270th Motor Rifle Regiment, which is part of the 42nd Motor Rifle Division, has been trying to advance through Mala Tokmachka "for many months," Thorkill noted. But the Russian attacks "have always faltered against the strongly fortified strongpoint in the complex of ruins of the former prison buildings."

If the Russians can't capture Orikhiv, they can't get their artillery within range of Zaporizhzhia City. But they can't capture Orikhiv if they don't first capture Mala Tokmachka. And they can't take Mala Tokmachka if they don't overrun the old prison.

Surround first, storm later

Frustrated in their attempts to directly assault the prison, the Russians took a different approach in early July. Borrowing tactics that have worked for Russian field armies all along the 1,200-km gray zone, the Russians set out to cut off Mala Tokmachka and starve its garrison before trying again to capture the prison complex.

The geography lends itself to this approach. The Russians control the village of Robotyne, 10 km south of Orikhiv, as well as the road leading north from Robotyne through the village of Novodanylivka, which lies just south of the Mala Tokmachka-Orikhiv conglomeration.

If the conglomeration has a soft underbelly, it's Novodanylivka. And in a series of actions in early July, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment pushed enough small infiltration groups into Novodanylivka to take the village from the 118th Mechanized Brigade. In capturing Novodanylivka, the Russians "drove a narrow wedge into the Ukrainian defense," according to Thorkill.

The wedge was not the end of the plan. It was the preparation for it. With Novodanylivka in Russian hands and the supply route between Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka under threat, the Russians came back to the assault.

Five days in August

In the five days to 17 August, Russian forces "massively stepped up their assault operations towards Orikhiv from several different directions, resulting in a partial collapse of Ukrainian defences," mapper AMK Mapping reported. The mapper counted a Russian gain of around 26 sq km across the sector.

The Russians re-established control over the eastern part of Mala Tokmachka and began infiltrating the northern part. Several groups crossed north over the Kinska River and are now attacking Ukrainian trench fortifications on the tactical heights beyond. "If they are able to consolidate," AMK Mapping wrote, "a defense of Mala Tokmachka by Ukraine will become nearly impossible." To the northeast, Russian forces broke through north of Bilohirya, putting the Ukrainian troops there at risk of being cut off.

The Polish Centre for Eastern Studies reached a similar reading on 18 August, reporting that Russian assault sub-units had begun to replace the sabotage and reconnaissance groups, that the battle for the eastern part of Orikhiv appeared to have begun, and that the eastern part of Mala Tokmachka was most likely under Russian control.

Heavy fighting continues for the prison complex and the residential streets around it. "The goal of the offensive operations by the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division is not, for the time being, the capture of Orikhiv," Thorkill wrote, "but rather the elimination of the presence of Ukrainian soldiers in the Mala Tokmachka area."

If the Russians can squeeze the Ukrainians out of Mala Tokmachka, they could pivot toward Orikhiv without worrying about Ukrainian positions at their rear. And they would be one strongpoint closer to putting a regional capital of several hundred thousand people under daily artillery fire.

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MyPillow founder and Trump ally lost primary to Lisa Demuth by 11 points, but still refuses to concede defeat

The pillow salesman, Donald Trump supporter and election denier Mike Lindell has offered to personally fund a recount and audit of every paper ballot cast in Minnesota’s Republican gubernatorial primary, which he lost last week.

Lindell’s announcement on Wednesday escalates his bid to challenge the results of last week’s vote, after finishing a distant second to the Minnesota house speaker, Lisa Demuth.

‘They call us extreme, they call us radical,’ the progressive Senate candidate said. ‘But I think people see through that’

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It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

In conservative Florida, Alex Vindman – a retired army intelligence officer who blew this whistle on Donald Trump in his first term – appeared set to carry the Democratic establishment banner as the party staged a long-shot bid to topple a Republican US senator.

Senator Jon Ossoff, who is up for re-election, came up with arguably the standout line of the midterm elections so far

Jon Ossoff really struck a nerve. That much is clear.

The US senator for Georgia, running for re-election in November, came up with arguably the standout line of the midterm elections campaign so far when discussing Donald Trump at a rally on Sunday.

Elections in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming provide a sense of how voters are feeling ahead of November’s midterms

Primaries in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming held on Tuesday provided the latest view into how voters are feeling ahead of November’s US midterm elections.

One candidate aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) netted an extraordinary win while another was defeated handily. Donald Trump’s handpicked candidates received a mixed reception from voters. In Alaska, voters chose their fighters for one of the year’s marquee US Senate races, and in Florida, extremism remained alive and well among Republicans.

She made the statement during a debate when asked about potential threats to US national security in South China Sea

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Asked whether Taiwan and the South China Sea threaten US national security, Republican fill-in senator Darline Graham hesitated. “I’m just going to be honest here,” she told Tuesday night’s debate audience. “I’m – not that informed on national security, so – but I do support the military.”

Gasps, and boos, rolled through the opera house hosting the only debate before next week’s Republican runoff – a race to succeed her brother, Lindsey Graham, who was one of the Senate’s most committed rightwing foreign policy hawks before his sudden passing in July. She did not retreat.

Some restraint on Trump’s excesses might be accomplished if November’s midterm elections give Democrats more power

Donald Trump is essentially unrestrained when it comes to enriching himself during his second term, with no sign of stopping. If anything, he’s ramping things up.

The numbers so far are astonishing. He amassed $2.2bn in 2025 revenues, the Guardian and other news outlets have reported.

Result tees up marquee race in US midterm elections, which could decide if Republicans or Democrats control Senate

Incumbent Dan S Sullivan, the US senator, advanced in Alaska’s non-partisan primary race for his seat on Tuesday alongside Mary Peltola, a former Democratic congresswoman.

With the top four candidates moving forward from Alaska’s open primaries to the general election, the Associated Press reported that Sullivan and Peltola had qualified for November’s general election.

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Those unfamiliar with Alaska politics are likely raising an eyebrow at some repeated names.

No, we’re not talking about Dan S Sullivan and Dan J Sullivan, two Republicans with the same name running for US Senate – an issue that went to the state supreme court earlier this summer. We’re talking about the Begiches. Nick Begich III, a Republican, is currently leading the race to represent Alaska in the US House of Representatives for a second term while Tom Begich, a Democrat, is advancing to the general election for governor in November.

Nixon bested Alexander Vindman to win Democratic nomination and now faces Republican Ashley Moody in November

• Trump-backed Byron Donalds wins Republican primary in race to succeed Florida governor DeSantis

In an upset for the Democratic establishment, progressive Angie Nixon won the party’s US Senate primary in Florida, beating former army intelligence officer Alexander Vindman.

Nixon, a state representative and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, had significantly less funding going into the primary – with $975,000 to Vindman’s $16.3m at the end of July, according to Florida Politics.

Congressman had pledged to implement president’s agenda if he gained governor’s seat

• Democratic socialist Angie Nixon clinches surprise primary win in Florida US Senate race

Byron Donalds, a congressman backed by Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination for governor on Tuesday in the race to succeed Ron DeSantis.

Donalds, who has represented south-west Florida since 2021, trounced three reasonably prominent Republican rivals, including Jay Collins, DeSantis’s handpicked lieutenant governor.

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• Donalds and Jolly to face off in Florida governor race

• Democratic socialist Angie Nixon wins Senate primary

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President Donald Trump posted an image of a map of the strait of Hormuz on his social media platform Truth Social, with a circle around the strait and the words “New US Territory” as the title on Tuesday morning.

This follows comments made on Friday at a speech at a police academy on Long Island, New York, where Trump said “After we finish defeating Iran, which is being very badly defeated, pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz strait a territory of the United States. … Essentially, that’s what it is. We have the blockade. No ships get through unless we want them to.”

Politics that worked for Democratic candidates in New York, Minnesota, Michigan won’t cut it in red Florida, analysts say

If primary elections elsewhere this summer were tussles between progressives and moderates for the direction of the Democratic party’s political future, Tuesday’s contests in Florida could not be more different.

In a former swing state that has in recent years become reliably red, moderate Democratic candidates Alex Vindman and David Jolly are heavily favored to become the party’s nominees for November’s Senate and governor’s race, respectively.

Ukraine brought the world's most battle-tested counter-drone experience to a NATO exercise. From 3 to 14 August, Ukraine took part in NATO's Baltic Trust 2026 exercise in Latvia, which focused on countering drones and other threats posed by uncrewed aerial systems, the General Staff reported.

The exercise responds to a mounting Russian threat against NATO's Baltic flank. Russia has probed the alliance's eastern edge so aggressively that NATO scrambled over the Baltic, jumping more than 250% in July.

Also, Moscow has increasingly launched drones on the Baltic States. Even on 14 August, the final day of the drill, a NATO fighter shot down a drone over Latvia after Russian electronic warfare pushed it off course, the second Baltic drone incursion that week. Baltic Trust 2026 was NATO's answer: about 650 participants from 24 countries building the counter-drone defenses that the threat demands.

The exercise tested systems working together

Baltic Trust focused on integration, not single technologies. Soldiers, specialists, and industry representatives jointly tested new technological solutions in conditions close to a modern operational environment, the General Staff said.

The core was whether the pieces work as one system. Participants checked how detection tools, command-and-control systems, and counter-drone measures can exchange data, form a common operational picture, and enable coordinated response.

Ukraine's experience is the draw

Ukraine's participation carries particular weight in this field. No NATO member has faced the scale of drone attack Ukraine confronts nightly, and its forces have built and continually adapt the detection, interception, and electronic-warfare methods that down Russian drones by the tens of thousands.

That makes Ukraine a source of hard-won practical knowledge for allies still preparing for threats Ukraine already lives with. Bringing Ukrainian experience into a NATO drill turns the country's battlefield lessons into shared allied capability, on exactly the drone warfare the alliance is scrambling to counter on its eastern flank.

The exercise builds collective defense

Baltic Trust served NATO's broader readiness. Jointly testing and integrating such solutions helps turn technological innovation into practical capabilities that strengthen readiness and collective defense.

Previously, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service Head Sergey Naryshkin accused NATO of escalating military activity near Russia’s borders. He warned that Poland and the Baltic states would be the first to suffer in the event of a war between Moscow and the Alliance.

President, who has decried mail-in ballots amid false claims of election fraud, issued March order to curb voting by mail

Donald Trump voted by mail in Florida’s Republican primary, Politico reports, citing Palm Beach county voting records. The White House has confirmed the president’s mail-in vote, according to the New York Times, which added that this was at least the third time the president has mailed his ballot.

In March, the president signed an executive ⁠order restricting the ​use of mail-in ballots ahead of the November midterm elections that will decide control of US Congress. Trump has repeatedly criticized mail-in voting, calling for restrictions on the policy for years and falsely claiming that his 2020 election defeat was the result of widespread voter fraud.

Georgia Democratic senator has stoked speculation for 2028 presidency bid by delivering stinging attacks on Trump

Democratic senator Jon Ossoff has attacked Donald Trump’s “uniquely despicable” handling of the US-Israel war on Iran, accusing the US president of “re-rigging” a corrupt system for himself in an excoriating speech.

Ossoff, who is running for re-election in Georgia in November, has repeatedly stoked speculation that he is laying the ground for a bid for the US presidency in 2028 by delivering a series of stinging attacks on Trump and his administration.

On or around 12 August, a Russian Geran-4 attack drone found a Ukrainian navy CB-90 in the waters off the Kinburn Spit and attacked it. Three days later, another Geran-4 went after a Ukrainian tugboat in the same waters. If the CB-90 sank, it may be the first one the Ukrainian navy has lost.

The CB-90 is a Swedish design and a Swedish gift, and it is the reason Ukraine can raid the spit at all. Fifteen meters long, armored against small arms, gun-armed and capable of around 40 knots, it can put 21 troops—or a ton of machinery—onto a hostile beach and be gone before the defenders react. Sweden has supplied most of the more than 38 in Ukrainian service; Norway, the Netherlands and the Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov's Steel Front initiative supplied the rest. Swedish instructors trained the crews.

Russia has now answered Ukraine's raids, and it is aiming at the boats rather than the raiders. The Geran-4s doing the hunting are jet-propelled, AI-assisted and fast enough to outrun most of what Ukraine can shoot back with. If the campaign continues, it could close the approach that has made the raids possible.

What that approach makes possible is worth spelling out. In July, unmanned boats belonging to the Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces landed at least one gun-armed unmanned ground vehicle on the Kinburn Spit, the westernmost Russian outpost in occupied Ukraine. As aerial drones watched, the UGV opened fire on a nearby Russian installation. No Ukrainian was anywhere near the beach.

Russian forces on the Kinburn Spit can monitor Ukrainian maritime traffic, making the narrow sandy spit a key outpost in the ongoing battle for the Black Sea's most important sea lanes. Ukrainian forces are determined to dislodge Russian forces from the spit. The Russians are determined to cling to their sandy outpost.

The Geran attacks are helping. The 12 August Geran raid targeted the CB-90. The 15 August Geran raid targeted the tugboat. It's unclear how much damage the Gerans inflicted, but it's worth noting that the CB-90 is just 15 m long; a tugboat might be slightly longer. A Geran's warhead weighs as much as 90 kg—probably enough to sink such a small vessel or burn it down to the keel.

The Ukrainian navy has only a few large warships, and they're all donated minehunters that have been waiting out the current wider war in the relative safety of European waters. The bulk of the Ukrainian fleet is made up of small patrol boats, auxiliaries such as tugs, and several types of unmanned surface vessels. These vessels defend waterways and ports and, more rarely, support offensive operations.

Spit raids

The July robot landing was one episode in a long Ukrainian raiding campaign along the spit—the kind of operation the Geran-4s are now trying to spoil.

The Geran strikes on Ukrainian boats could blunt these raids and help the Russians maintain their tenuous hold on the Kinburn Spit. The Russian strikes are part of a wider maritime campaign. Shortly after Ukrainian drone units began targeting the unregistered cargo ships and tankers belonging to Russia's shadow fleet, Russian drone and missile units retaliated—with devastating attacks on Ukrainian ports and the ships sailing to and from these ports in support of Ukraine's lucrative grain exports.

The Ukrainian attacks on the shadow fleet damaged hundreds of ships and effectively ground Russian Black Sea trade to a halt. But Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports effectively ground Ukrainian Black Sea trade to a halt, too.

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The new jet-propelled Geran-4s with their AI-assisted targeting were central to the effort. Their 500 km/h top speed makes them hard to shoot down. And the AI makes jamming far less useful than it used to be: the operator locks the drone onto a target, and from there the machine vision flies the attack, holding the lock even if Ukrainian electronic warfare severs the radio link in the final seconds.

That makes the CB-90s valuable targets. Armed with guns and armored against enemy small arms fire, they're perfect for raiding far-flung enemy outposts such as those on the Kinburn Spit. But they're vulnerable to drone attack—and each one is irreplaceable in the sense that matters, since Ukraine cannot build them and has to wait for the next donation.

Ukrainian forces aren't powerless to stop the Russians from spoiling Ukrainian raids on the spit. Geran-4s might be too fast for Ukrainian gun teams, armed light aircraft, and cheap interceptor drones, but they're not too fast for supersonic Ukrainian air force MiG-29 fighters.

Several of the MiGs patrol over the western Black Sea. One crashed recently, but others remain.

A broad group of diseases in the agricultural powerhouse is top of mind for the midterm elections

In Iowa, one of the key battleground states in November’s midterm elections, just about every political candidate agrees on one thing: something must be done about the state’s rising rates of cancer.

The midwestern state has the second-highest rate of cancer nationwide and, together with Utah and West Virginia, is one of only three states where incidents of the disease are rising, according to cancer rate monitoring from the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities.

‘Complete unraveling’ of Trump and Republican project reflects attitude of not caring at all about governance

He was always one step ahead. Donald Trump won the US presidency as a wildly unlikely outsider in 2016 and staged an astonishing comeback to win it again in 2024. Even his foes grudgingly called him a political savant with an intuition for exploiting grievances that left so-called experts floundering.

But now they are asking if the dark genius has lost his touch. Trump is trapped in the quagmire of an unpopular war, obsessing over monuments in Washington and looking for a new spokesperson after his White House press secretary quit. If the 80-year-old was deliberately trying to sabotage his Republican party in November’s midterm elections, it is not clear what he would do differently.

The scale of Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive in southeastern Ukraine early this year is finally becoming clear. In six months of maneuver starting on 29 January, a clutch of Ukrainian units, including the 78th, 79th, 80th, 82nd, and 95th Air Assault Brigades and the 1st and 425th Assault Regiments—tens of thousands of troops, in all—marched through gaps in Russian defenses and, according to Ukrainian officials, liberated around 745 square km and 26 settlements. Mostly in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but also in neighboring Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts.

That is Kyiv's own accounting, and it is the high end. The Institute for the Study of War, which maps control from geolocated imagery, put the figure at roughly 627 square km across the Oleksandrivka direction and the northern Hulyaipole direction—while noting its own conservative method probably undercounts. Either number describes the largest Ukrainian territorial gain since 2023.

The Ukrainian gains helped to offset Russian gains around the last few free cities in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast. Between the start of February and the end of July, Russian regiments captured a net total of just 260 square km of Ukrainian soil, according to a tally by the Black Bird Group. It would've been more than 1,000 square km if those air assault and assault units hadn't been busy clearing the Russians from a wide swathe of the southeast.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive kicked off on 29 January. Three days later, Elon Musk's Starlink bricked Russia's thousands of smuggled and stolen satellite terminals. Practically overnight, the Russians lost their best method for controlling small drones and guiding assault units across the disputed gray zone. Drones couldn't fly. Troops couldn't navigate.

Ukrainian commanders surely knew their communications advantage wouldn't last: the Russians would eventually adapt with new methods of command and control. Seizing the opportunity, Ukrainian paratroopers and assault troops pressed the attack. And in stark contrast to the usual assault tactics for both sides, the Ukrainians attacked in tanks and other armored vehicles, counting on the Russians' connectivity problems to clear a path for heavy forces.

The blackout was not the only thing working in Ukraine's favor. ISW credits the gains to five reinforcing factors: better operational planning, a campaign to suppress and destroy Russian air defenses, deeper strikes on Russian logistics, Ukrainian drone superiority at the tactical level—and the Starlink cutoff. But the cutoff is the one that arrived all at once, and it arrived just as Ukrainian armor was starting to move.

Mechanized assaults

Not all the vehicles got through. The assault troops lost one up-armored M-1 Abrams tank in early February. But by March, other assault forces M-1s were engaging Russian troops at point-blank range with their 120-mm main guns. After clearing a few disputed villages along a 45-km front between Dobropillya and Zelenyi Hai, the Ukrainians focused their maneuver and firepower on Komar, 12 km southeast of Zelenyi Hai.

The Ukrainians "started a slow and quiet offensive, with very few videos and small teams, during April and May," mapper Clément Molin recalled. The strict information security obscured the Ukrainian moves for all but the closest observers, allowing Ukrainian commanders to press their attacks without drawing too much attention—and risking a Russian countercounteroffensive.

By summer, the Ukrainians were within mortar range of Komar. Embarrassed Russian commanders resorted to sending out small teams on virtual suicide missions to plant Russian flags in disputed territory. The flags could create the impression of Russian control on terrain that, in fact, neither side controlled. "Russia is trying to intoxicate us with flag videos, which are meant to hide the real situation to both us and their command," Molin wrote.

The reality was that the Ukrainians had gained ground. A lot of it.

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Russian troops inch toward Lyman. Drones keep delaying the plan.

Announcing the results on 12 August, Ukrainian officials also claimed 9,550 Russian troops killed and more than 6,600 wounded—figures no independent body has verified. Former commander in chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who planned the operation, said it proved the Ukrainian army "is capable not only of steadfastly holding its defences, but also of launching offensives, seizing the initiative, and liberating Ukrainian land."

But the momentum was unsustainable. As the Russians gradually restored command and control through the summer, the Ukrainians encountered more resistance. Now the gray zone is stabilizing again. Observer Moklasen predicted new Ukrainian commander in chief Maj. Gen. Mykhailo Drapatyi will order his corps and brigade commanders "to dig in positions, consolidate and strengthen more army corps" instead of continuing to attack.

After all, the Russians are pushing hard in Donetsk, and the resources the Ukrainians had devoted to the southeastern counteroffensive could boost the defensive effort in the east. Moreover, there are worrying signs the Kremlin may attempt another mobilization soon, potentially surging hundreds of thousands of fresh troops into Ukraine.

The Ukrainians may soon prioritize holding over attacking.

Group backs Elijah Manley in primary election in bid to unseat veteran Democrat in newly drawn district

A progressive group has endorsed a 27-year-old substitute teacher who overcame childhood homelessness in his bid to unseat the veteran Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz in Florida.

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) said it was backing Elijah Manley in next week’s primary election in Florida’s newly drawn 20th congressional district, casting the race as a contest between a young economic populist and a stalwart of the Democratic party establishment.

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• Trump downplays concerns about sailors deployed for record 250 days

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The Trump administration, in its appeal to the supreme court today, said that “this case involves an extraordinary and unlawful injunction that will halt the ongoing construction of the integrated military complex including a totally secure ballroom space, at the East Wing of the White House, which is vitally required by national security.”

It’s worth noting that the appeals court ruling blocks the above-ground construction of the ballroom, but would allow the work on the underground security structure to continue.

Oliver Larkin, a 34-year-old DSA candidate, is running for Congress in a newly drawn district in Florida. On Tuesday, voters will decide between him and a ‘DeSantis Democrat’

Doors don’t get knocked on much in this stretch of south Florida, where yard signs for Republican and Democratic candidates alternate from home to home. Oliver Larkin, the 34-year-old democratic socialist running for Congress here, knows this.

With a clipboard in hand five weeks before the state’s primary, Larkin and two canvassing volunteers walked down palm tree-lined streets with single-family homes to pitch residents on his plan for a better way of life. Surprisingly, many wanted to chat with the strangers at their door.

Ukraine is shooting down drones at a fast-rising rate. Ukraine's Defense Forces destroyed 40,438 Russian fixed-wing drones, or "wings", in July 2026, Ukraine's Defense Ministry reported on 11 August.

The July figures mark a defense scaling up as fast as the threat it counters. Since the start of the year, Ukraine's Defense Forces have destroyed 195,000 Russian "wings" and 66,000 copters. A counter-drone effort is growing month by month against a Russian drone campaign that has itself expanded relentlessly.

The numbers climbed across drone types

Both categories of drone kills rose sharply. Fixed-wing "wings," the category that includes long-range attack drones like Shaheds, climbed from 27,711 in May to 40,438 in July, according to the ministry.

Copter kills rose even faster in proportion. The number of destroyed copters grew 42% in a single month, from 14,071 in June to 19,945 in July. The parallel rise in both types reflects a Russian drone offensive attacking on multiple fronts at once, from deep-strike Shaheds to short-range quadcopters over the trenches, and a Ukrainian defense expanding to meet each.

DELTA confirms every kill

Every strike has been confirmed by the DELTA system, and video recording of the shootdowns helps identify the most effective counter-drone tools for development and scaling, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said.

That verification matters for a claimed tally. Rather than a bare count, the numbers are tied to Ukraine's battle-management system, which logs and video-confirms each kill, the same DELTA platform whose combat data now trains Ukraine's target-detection AI.

The count is one side of the drone war

The figures capture only Ukraine's defensive half of a war fought increasingly by drones. Russia has expanded its drone production and nightly launches throughout 2026, aiming to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses with mass, and the rising Ukrainian kill counts are the answer to that escalation, not a sign it has eased.

Russian troops are slowly marching toward and around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last two big free cities in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast.

The Russians have a standard playbook for taking a Ukrainian city, and running it means doing two things at the same time. Along the nearly 100-km Kramatorsk front, they don't have the infantry to do both at once. Every time a Ukrainian brigade holds somewhere, the Russians have to move men to cover it—and something stalls somewhere else.

That strategy is simple in concept but difficult in practice. The idea is for Russian forces to advance along a city's under-protected flanks in order to put pressure on the main supply lines of the city's garrison. As the flank attacks squeeze the garrison's logistics, Russian infiltrators slip into the city, hoping to create a lodgement for follow-on forces.

The final assault through that lodgement comes late in the campaign, after the Ukrainians are already weakened by a lack of supplies.

The strategy only works when the troops on the flanks and those in the middle work together. The former squeezes. The latter infiltrates. The problem for the Russian Center Group of Forces on the Kramatorsk front is that it's not squeezing and infiltrating at the same time. That delays the overall Russian advance and buys time for Ukrainian forces to dig in, reinforce, and hope for a miracle.

"Russian offensive planning at the operational level remains disciplined," mapper and analyst Vitaly explained. But only "on paper," Vitaly added. "Groupings are sequenced, axes are assigned, objectives are staggered."

"What the discipline is not is well-manned," the mapper wrote.

Vitaly reads one recent Russian adaptation as evidence of the shortfall rather than of cleverness. "I read the shift to two- and three-man infiltration teams on motorcycles and ATVs as less a sign of tactical innovation than of a manpower deficit that organization is straining to hide," he wrote.

Manpower shortages

Ukraine's manpower problems are well-known. Fewer observers appreciate that Russia struggles, too. Yes, the Russians still recruit around 30,000 fresh troops every month. In theory, that's enough new manpower to replace monthly losses.

But replacing casualties is not the same as resourcing a strategy. Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi put the Russian force in Ukraine at 721,300 at the end of June—a gain of only around 11,000 since late 2025, against Russian losses he estimated at 30,000 to 35,000 a month. Contract recruitment collapsed in the spring, falling by a third year on year, and Ukraine's foreign intelligence service counted 195,000 contract recruits by early July against an annual target of 409,000.

A Russian general, speaking anonymously to the investigative outlet IStories, put the requirement more starkly. To capture the rest of the Ukrainian-held Donbas, he said Russia would need to replace at least 55,000 to 60,000 casualties every month—roughly double what it recruits. That figure rests on a single unnamed source and should be weighed accordingly. But it describes the same gap Vitaly sees on the map.

When a Ukrainian brigade defeats one attack anywhere along the Kramatorsk front, it may compel Russian regiments to shuffle troops between units in order to quickly replace the losses. The shuffle may sap the combat power of a flanking or infiltration unit working along some other section of the front.

A weak flanking unit may not be able to keep up the pressure on enemy supply lines, perhaps imperiling the adjacent infiltration unit as it probes for the gaps in Ukrainian defenses that the flankers were supposed to help create. By the same token, weak infiltrators may find gaps in Ukrainian defenses, but fail to secure a lodgement—effectively wasting the efforts of the adjacent flankers.

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Russia is assaulting the gateway to Sloviansk. Ukraine’s 81st Brigade is holding it nearly alone

"That gap keeps producing the same effect," Vitaly explained. The Ukrainian armed forces' "ability to hold separate sections of the front independently forces Russian formations to compensate for each other's failures, and that compensation creates new stalls."

Vitaly gave a name to the effect, and was careful about what he was not claiming. "I call it structural deterrence—not deterrence in the conventional sense, and not a doctrine, but the byproduct of asking an undermanned army to keep a sequenced plan on schedule."

A byproduct is not a defense, and it holds only as long as the Ukrainians can keep producing it. That requires synchronization of their own. Supplies and reinforcements must arrive when and where they're most badly needed. Air and artillery support should shift from sector to sector depending on the urgency of the local garrisons' needs.

All that is to say, the lack of synchronization that has slowed the Russians' march on Kramatorsk could eventually speed up the Russians' march—if and when the Ukrainians are the ones struggling to synchronize.

It's worth noting that the Russians aren't advancing fast toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, but they are advancing—especially from the northeast.

The Russians may not be perfectly synchronized. But they're clearly synchronized enough to grind toward the last free cities in Donetsk. Just very, very slowly.

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Can Ukrainian forces save Sloviansk and Kramatorsk?

For years, Russian troops probed the Ukrainian garrison at Mykolaivka in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast, sending in small teams of infiltrators for the defenders to hunt down. On 29 July, they stopped probing. "The Russians have begun an assault on Mykolaivka from the east," observer Thorkill reported, citing the local Ukrainian Telegram channel nikolaevka_online.

Russian assault groups are attacking the apartment blocks along the town's eastern edge. Mykolaivka sits 8 km east of Sloviansk, one of just two big free cities in Donetsk Oblast, and taking it is the precondition for any Russian siege of the city. "The situation is deteriorating," nikolaevka_online warned.

Mykolaivka is "the eastern gateway to Sloviansk," according to mapper Clément Molin. The Russian offensive in Donetsk aims to lay siege to and ultimately capture Sloviansk and neighboring Kramatorsk, which together are still home to nearly 100,000 people despite hundreds of thousands of others having fled.

A Ukrainian garrison anchored by the 81st Airmobile Brigade has defended Mykolaivka for years. But the garrison has been struggling to interdict every team of Russian infiltrators—and now the infiltrators have company.

The sector is an exception to a mostly frozen front. Russian troops captured 106 square km of Ukrainian territory in July, according to the Blackbird Group—the fastest Russian advance since January, but a fifth of what the Russians seized in July 2025. Blackbird reads the figure as evidence Russia has largely exhausted its offensive options; in June, Russian forces lost 9 square km on net. The slow average along the 1,200 km gray zone belies much faster movement in a handful of sectors, and east of Sloviansk is one of them.

Expect a long, hard fight in and around the ruins of Mykolaivka. "It is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged," Molin explained.

Tough terrain

The geography is difficult for both the defenders and the attackers. The Donets Canal, which abuts Mykolaivka on the west, "aids the Ukrainian defense just as much as it facilitates the Russian offensive," Molin noted. To reinforce the 81st Airmobile Brigade in and around Mykolaivka, Ukrainian troops must cross the canal while under Russian fire. "Massing troops there is a highly complex undertaking," Molin warned.

But the Russian army will face the same challenge if and when it marches through Mykolaivka. "Crossing the canal, particularly around the Sloviansk power plant and its network of waterways, will come at a very high cost, especially given the extensive fortifications the Ukrainians have built in the area over recent months," according to Molin.

In other words, the 81st Airmobile Brigade has fallback positions on the near side of the Donets Canal. If the brigade can't hold Mykolaivka, maybe it can hold the canal—and delay if not halt further Russian advances toward Sloviansk.

The Ukrainians would prefer to hold in Mykolaivka, of course. But it's looking increasingly dire. The Russians appear to be accumulating in the seasonal homes, or "dachas," on the northeastern outskirts of Mykolaivka. "It is difficult to say at this point how many Russian soldiers have infiltrated there," Thorkill wrote. "However, their very presence has forced the command of the 81st Air Assault Brigade—responsible for the city's defense—to secure with patrols."

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Can Ukrainian forces save Sloviansk and Kramatorsk?

The Ukrainian brigade is trying to build a wall of infantry and drones between the dachas and a key road intersection that can carry defenders and attackers across central Mykolaivka.

But the 81st Airmobile Brigade is outnumbered, probably badly so. For the first two years of the wider war, the brigade could count on help from the 54th Mechanized Brigade, which clung to the 81st Airmobile Brigade's right flank.

While the 54th Mechanized Brigade still registers on many maps of the gray zone, in fact it's barely there. "Various snippets of information indicate that the 54th Mechanized Brigade—longtime right-flank neighbor of the 81st Brigade—was completely withdrawn from the front between June and July 2024 and sent to the deep rear," Thorkill wrote. East of Sloviansk, "only its drone group remained."

"The unit had long been a brigade in name only," Thorkill noted. So the 81st Airmobile Brigade fights mostly alone, for now—defending the gateway to Sloviansk.

Russia's escalating strikes made July the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians in more than three years. More civilians were killed in Ukraine in July than in any month since April 2022, driven by intensified Russian attacks using ballistic missiles and long-range drones, the UN human rights office in Ukraine reports.

The record is the human cost of a shortage of interceptors for ballistic missiles amid the US war with Iran. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the cut in interceptor supplies from partners may be a political attempt to make Ukraine more compliant, a claim he made after the same overnight attack that killed at least 17 civilians, mainly in Kyiv and the surrounding region.

The month's toll came from strikes on cities

The July deaths clustered around attacks on populated areas. Beyond the Kyiv strike, air and drone attacks hit Kramatorsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, killing and wounding dozens and destroying homes, schools, public transport, water systems, and humanitarian warehouses, according to the UN.

The targets read as the fabric of civilian life. Water systems, schools, and aid depots are not military objects, and their destruction alongside the deaths is what the UN monitoring mission records when it documents the effect of Russia's long-range strikes on the civilian population.

The half-year figures show a steep climb

The July record sits atop a sharply rising trend. In the first half of 2026, the UN monitoring mission confirmed 1,396 Ukrainian civilians killed and 7,978 wounded.

Those numbers are climbing fast. The first-half toll is 37% higher than the same period in 2025 and 114% higher than the year before, as Russia intensifies its long-range strikes. Civilian deaths have more than doubled in two years, a direct measure of what the shift to massed ballistic and jet-powered drone attacks has done to the people beneath them.

Russia reported its own civilian deaths

The UN also noted casualties on the Russian side. According to Russian local authorities, Ukrainian long-range drone retaliation strikes on several Russian cities this week reportedly killed at least 12 people.

The scale is asymmetric and the cause singular: it is Russia's war on Ukraine, and its intensifying strikes on Ukrainian cities, that made July the deadliest month for civilians since the war's first spring.

A doomed Russian tank assault on 22 July along the southern approaches to the twin cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the last big free cities in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, was ultimately a sideshow. The Russians’ main effort, in their long and bloody campaign to capture all of Donetsk, is playing out in the north, not the south. 

The front northeast of Sloviansk “has been the most successful for the Russian army throughout 2026,” mapper Clément Molin noted. 

The bad news for Ukraine is that its forces in the area—parts of six brigades including the 53rd, 54th and 63rd Mechanized Brigades and the 81st Air Mobile Brigade and the 117th and 120th Territorial Defense Brigades—are “insufficient,” according to Molin. 

Worse, relentless Russian bombardment of the roads and paths leading to and through Sloviansk means the Ukrainians may struggle to sustain any additional brigades in the area. Assuming there are any free brigades, of course.

The bombardment is intensifying. On 31 July, a Russian warplane struck the Sloviansk Chemical Plant, deep inside the city, with a 1,500-kg KAB-1500 precision glide bomb. “The city has come under increasingly heavy attacks in recent days,” AMK Mapping noted.

But the same difficult terrain, crisscrossed by the Donets Canal and dense Ukrainian fortifications, complicates Russian attacks. There are few protected approaches toward Sloviansk from the Russians’ main bases in the ruins of Siversk, 31 km to the east. And one big town town stands between the Russians and the free city: Mykolaivka.

And the Ukrainians are bombarding Russian supply lines with the same intensity that the Russians are bombarding Ukrainian supply line. It’s for those reasons that Molin expects the Russians to eventually lay siege to Sloviansk and neighboring Kramatorsk from the northeast.

But not anytime soon. “It is highly unlikely that the battle for Sloviansk will begin this year, not least because the fighting in Mykolaivka is likely to be prolonged,” Molin predicted.

Crawling advance

The slow pace of the Russian advance belies the worsening conditions in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Out of a combined pre-war population of around 440,000, just 90,000 people remain in the twin cities. The other 350,000 have fled.  

As the cities slowly empty, all eyes turn to the tiny village of Rai-Oleksandrivka, 14 km east of Sloviansk. “This small village, seemingly insignificant at first glance, is actually of strategic importance, as the surrounding high ground overlooks the city of Sloviansk,” Molin explained. 

“In recent weeks, Russian forces have been consolidating their hold on the village and the surrounding heights, even though Ukrainian troops still maintain positions in many areas,” Molin wrote. 

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Russia took the cages off its newest tanks. The new Arena-M shield bought them a few minutes.

Russian forces are already relentlessly bombarding Ukrainian supply lines in the area with air-launched glide bombs. As Russian ground forces advance closer to Sloviansk and consolidate along key heights such as those around Rai-Oleksandrivka, they can begin aiming more tube artillery at the same supply lines, compounding the Ukrainians’ logistical problems. 

The coming battle is neither won nor lost yet. But time is running out for Ukrainian forces to reset the battlefield in their favor. 

If the Ukrainian command can prioritize the front, and push enough supplies to front-line positions, it might yet save Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. As Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky completes his reshuffle of key civilian and military leaders and a new command, that command’s attention “must shift to the Donbas,” Molin stressed.