Ukraine’s military intelligence estimates that only 10–20% of the prewar population may remain in the Russian-occupied left bank of Kherson Oblast, accusing Moscow of forcing Ukrainians from their homes while relocating Russian citizens to the area.

Russia’s efforts to displace Ukrainians and bring Russian citizens into occupied Kherson Oblast are part of Moscow’s broader campaign to consolidate control over occupied territory, impose Russian institutions, and erode Ukrainian national identity. Similar practices have been documented in other occupied Ukrainian territories, including the resettlement of Russians into homes in Mariupol and efforts to replace Ukrainian education with Russian curricula.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry (HUR) said Russia was creating intolerable living conditions for Ukrainian residents and unlawfully seizing private property to displace them. The agency said Moscow was simultaneously using financial incentives to recruit Russian teachers, doctors, and other professionals to work in occupied areas.

Russia brings in Russian workers as Ukrainians are pushed out

Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, around 500,000 people lived on the left bank of Kherson Oblast, according to HUR. The agency estimates that only 10–20% of that population may remain.

Moscow is using state-backed recruitment programs, including “Zemsky Teacher,” “Zemsky Doctor,” “Zemsky Feldsher,” “Zemsky Cultural Worker,” and “Zemsky Coach,” to attract Russian citizens to occupied Ukrainian territory, HUR said.

Under these programs, Russian teachers and doctors who agree to work in occupied areas are offered one-time payments of 2 million rubles, while junior medical staff can receive 1 million rubles. The incentives also include higher salaries and other benefits, with contracts lasting at least five years.

HUR said hundreds of Russian teachers and doctors had already been brought to occupied Ukrainian territories from regions across Russia, including Krasnodar, Khabarovsk, Stavropol, and Perm Krais, as well as Rostov, Kursk, and Leningrad oblasts.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russian medical personnel are needed primarily to serve occupying forces, while Russian teachers are being brought in to undermine Ukrainian children’s national identity.

Ukraine accuses Russia of war crimes and genocidal practices

HUR said Russia’s efforts to displace Ukrainian residents and bring in Russian citizens bore signs of war crimes and genocidal practices against the Ukrainian population.

The agency’s allegations concern both the coercive removal of Ukrainians from occupied territory and the replacement of local residents with people brought from Russia. Ukrainian authorities say these policies are part of Moscow’s broader effort to consolidate control over occupied Ukrainian land and impose Russian identity and institutions.

Kherson Oblast faces displacement, attacks, and a humanitarian crisis

Russian forces occupied much of Kherson Oblast in the early months of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Ukrainian forces liberated the oblast’s right-bank areas, including the regional capital, in November that year, but Russia continues to occupy the left bank of the Dnipro River.

Russian forces regularly attack Ukrainian-controlled areas of Kherson Oblast with artillery and drones, killing and injuring civilians. Ukrainians have described repeated drone attacks on civilians as a “human safari.” In May 2025, a UN commission of inquiry concluded that Russian forces’ repeated drone attacks on civilians along the Dnipro’s right bank amounted to crimes against humanity of murder.

The occupied town of Oleshky, on the left bank, has also faced severe shortages of food, medicine, and medical care amid restrictions on movement and continued fighting.

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Thousands are starving in occupied Oleshky. People have no food, no way out, and Russian forces bomb incoming aid

Russia’s occupation has also exposed residents of Kherson Oblast to major humanitarian disasters. The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in June 2023 flooded settlements along the Dnipro, including Russian-occupied communities on the left bank, damaging homes and forcing residents to flee. Russian forces’ restrictions on access and evacuation further endangered civilians in the affected areas.

While Russia occupies the left bank of Kherson Oblast, its forces continue to target civilians on the Ukrainian-controlled right bank. Across the oblast, residents face the consequences of Russia’s invasion, from forced displacement and property seizures under occupation to deadly drone and artillery attacks.

The ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast has expanded beyond the town to provide safe passage for humanitarian convoys, US First Lady Melania Trump said on 27 October. The expansion is intended to facilitate aid deliveries to civilians trapped under Russian occupation.

Ukraine and Russia are observing a localized ceasefire to enable a humanitarian mission to reach Oleshky, where residents have faced months of shortages of food, medicine, and medical care under Russian occupation. 

Trump said the ceasefire took effect at 04:00 Moscow time on 27 October, two days ahead of the original schedule, to protect civilians and facilitate the delivery of critical humanitarian aid. Russia’s chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, had confirmed the arrangement, she said.

Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said no ceasefire violations had been recorded by 19:49 Kyiv time on 27 October, and Russian forces had made no attempts to advance. He added that he remained in constant contact with his Russian counterpart, Yana Lantratova.

Road to Oleshky must be cleared before aid can arrive

Lubinets said the ceasefire began at 03:00 Kyiv time and would remain in effect until 22:59 Kyiv time on 1 November. He reported no violations since it began and said Russian forces had made no attempts to advance.

The next steps are to clear mines from the road to Oleshky and deliver humanitarian supplies. Representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States will be present once the route is cleared and the aid arrives, Lubinets said in an interview with Ukrainian broadcaster 1+1.

He added that everyone who wants to leave for Ukrainian-controlled territory would be able to do so and that assistance would be provided to everyone who needs it.

The Financial Times earlier reported, citing sources familiar with the negotiations, that residents who agree to leave Russian-occupied Oleshky during the ceasefire would first be transported to occupied Crimea or Russia before being allowed to return to Ukrainian-controlled territory.

Humanitarian mission follows months of efforts

Oleshky has been under Russian occupation since 2022. The town has been cut off for months, with shortages of food, medicine, and medical care worsening. 

The White House announced on 23 October that Melania Trump had secured a localized ceasefire originally scheduled to begin on 29 October. Russia subsequently announced a ceasefire on the Kherson axis from 27 October, with preparations to secure a route for a humanitarian convoy.

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Ceasefire planned for occupied Oleshky as residents face starvation and blocked escape routes, White House announces

Lubinets said efforts to address the humanitarian crisis in Oleshky began in late February 2026, but progress accelerated in September following Melania Trump’s involvement.

The expanded ceasefire area is intended to facilitate the humanitarian operation, but the route must still be cleared and supplies delivered before the mission can reach residents. The new boundaries of the ceasefire area have not been specified publicly.

Ukraine’s air defenses have been intercepting nearly 60% of Russian Geran-4 jet-powered attack drones over the past three months, with the interception rate reaching 80% during some attacks, Ukraine’s General Staff said.

Russia has increasingly used jet-powered drones in its attacks on Ukraine, adding a faster-moving threat to the Shahed-type drones Moscow deploys against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukraine is working to improve interception rates while reducing the cost of countering these aerial threats amid shortages of surface-to-air missiles.

The General Staff’s update did not mention interception rates for Russia’s more advanced Geran-5 jet-powered drone.

F-16s, Mirage jets help intercept Russian drones

According to the General Staff, tactical aviation plays a significant role in destroying Russian jet-powered drones. Ukraine uses F-16s, French Mirage aircraft, and MiG-29 fighters to intercept them.

The military is also strengthening what it calls “short-range air defense” as Ukraine faces a shortage of guided anti-aircraft missiles. These systems include Gepard and Shilka anti-aircraft guns, newer Skynex, Skyranger, and Terrahawk Paladin systems, interceptor drones, and mobile fire groups deployed by different branches of Ukraine’s Defense Forces.

Mobile fire groups are equipped not only with machine guns and supporting equipment but also with man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS). Ukrainian troops have been successfully using these missiles to shoot down Russian jet-powered drones, the General Staff said.

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Ukraine tests cheaper drone interceptors

Ukraine is also seeking to lower the cost of countering Russian aerial attacks by testing new interceptor drones.

According to the General Staff, some models have already downed dozens of Russian Geran jet-powered drones. The military did not provide further details about the interceptor models or the number of drones destroyed.

The rising interception rate reflects Ukraine’s efforts to adapt its air defenses to Russia’s evolving drone campaign while preserving scarce and expensive air-defense missiles for threats that require them.

Russia is expanding drone storage at the Hvardiiske military airfield in occupied Crimea, Ukrainian OSINT channel Dnipro Osint reported on 26 October, citing new satellite images. The channel did not say who took the images or when. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said it struck drone hangars at the same airfield in July, and the military said strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites nearby.

Hvardiiske has stayed in use since then. Ukraine’s General Staff has listed it among the sites Russia launched attack drones from in every daily report since 7 October. The airfield was on the list again on 24, 25, and 27 October, the night Russia aimed its main strike at Kyiv. The new construction, as the channel describes it, adds protected storage at a base Ukraine has already shown it can reach.

Shelters and “garages”

The images show more than 20 small shelters under construction, each protected by earth berms, the channel said. It also counted about 40 smaller structures it calls “garages.” It said they are meant for storing, servicing, and preparing Geran drones for launch.

Geran is the name Russia gives the Iranian-designed Shahed drones: the Shahed-136 became the Geran-2, which Russia now builds itself. The images show at least one hangar damaged by a Ukrainian drone hit, Dnipro Osint noted.

Launched from vehicles

Hvardiiske, north of Simferopol, uses mobile launch platforms instead of fixed installations, according to Dnipro Osint. Crews load drones onto specially equipped vehicles, which then launch them from the runway.

Struck repeatedly since June

On 24 June, the SBU said it hit infrastructure at Hvardiiske and at the Saky airbase. On 3 July, the SBU reported that its drones struck two hangars at Hvardiiske that stored Shaheds and aviation equipment. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck the airfield again overnight on 5 July, and the SBU said a day later that it hit three hangars with aviation equipment there. A strike on 3 August destroyed nine aviation-fuel tanks and damaged two aircraft hangars, the General Staff said. Strikes on 13 October damaged four drone storage sites near Hvardiiske, with signs of secondary detonation, it reported two days later.

Not the only base Russia is building up

Hvardiiske is not the only Russian drone base Ukrainian OSINT channels have flagged this month. On 13 October, the anonymous channel Absolutely Reliable Source said Russia had nearly finished the first section of a launch site for jet-powered Geran-5 drones near Millerovo in Rostov Oblast, with eight launcher positions and 32 drone-preparation spots. Hvardiiske and Millerovo were both among the launch areas the General Staff listed for the night of 27 October, when Russia launched 280 Shahed-type drones, 69 of them jet-powered, with Kyiv as the main target.

A ceasefire around Russian-occupied Oleshky in Kherson Oblast took effect at 03:00 on 27 October Kyiv time, and both sides were complying with the agreements, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported that its forces had stopped firing on the Kherson axis at 04:00 Moscow time, at the same moment.

Russia has kept Oleshky cut off for months. In June, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine documented worsening shortages of food, medicine, and medical care there and in neighboring Hola Prystan. As of 8 October, Lubinets’ office still saw no practical breakthrough toward an organized evacuation, with 358 residents verified as needing help to leave. The ceasefire is the first step that has to hold before aid can go in and residents can leave, an operation Marc Beckman, the first lady’s chief adviser, expects to take five to seven days.

By 09:00 on 27 October, Russian forces were still observing the ceasefire, according to Pavlo Drohal, spokesperson for Ukraine’s 30th Marine Corps. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Presidential Office, announced that the mission had begun and that Lubinets had gone to the site to coordinate it.

Ceasefire brought forward by two days

The White House announced on 23 October that First Lady Melania Trump had secured a localized ceasefire, set to begin on 29 October. The same evening, Russia’s chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov announced a ceasefire on the Kherson axis from 27 October, with engineering reconnaissance and a secured route for a humanitarian convoy. Ukraine’s General Staff followed, introducing a ceasefire in a designated area from the same hour.

Beckman told Ukrinform on 26 October that Russia had moved the ceasefire two days earlier and extended it beyond Oleshky into Kherson Oblast. Lubinets said on 23 October that the mission should effectively begin on 29 October, after demining, adding that the date was not a matter of principle for either side.

A day after the announcement, Lubinets and his Russian counterpart Yana Lantratova, who lead the two negotiating groups, confirmed the timing in an online meeting, he said. According to Lubinets, the agreement covers demining the road to Oleshky, delivering food, water, medicine, and hospital equipment, and safe movement for civilians.

Newsmax to document the operation

Meanwhile, Melania Trump said she had secured an “impartial American media organization” to accompany the Russian and Ukrainian teams. Beckman named it as Newsmax. He said he had worked directly with the channel’s owner, and that its journalists would record testimony as what he called neutral American observers.

Residents could leave for Ukraine or Russia, or stay, Beckman said. He added that Russia had assured Kyiv and Washington it would respect their choice of destination. Both governments asked him not to disclose what guarantees Russia gave or how violations would be handled, he said. He expects the operation to take five to seven days after 29 October, with an extension possible if both sides agree.

Diplomat doubts the truce will move peace talks

At the same time, Kostiantyn Yelisieiev, Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU in 2010–2015, told Radio NV the truce became possible only through the personal involvement of Donald and Melania Trump. The US president, he said, sees it as a way to show Americans he is bringing peace closer. He said he expects Russia to attempt provocations aimed at pushing residents toward the Russian side.

Yelisieiev said he does not share the optimism of those who think Oleshky could push the wider peace process forward. He compared it to the Black Sea grain corridor, a one-off arrangement that no longer works. He warned of a “diplomatic smokescreen”: Russia imitates negotiations while it keeps fighting, hoping Ukraine and its partners weaken over time.

A town under blockade

Oleshky lies on the left bank of the Dnipro, about 4 km from Kherson, and has been occupied since February 2022, Radio Svoboda reported. The White House says it had about 24,000 residents before the war and estimates 1,700 to 2,000 remain, mostly elderly, including about 50 children. Russian troops have also seized food dropped by Ukrainian drones, a local official said.

The Trump administration has encouraged former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to run for UN secretary-general and discussed a joint US-Russia-China candidacy with Moscow and Beijing, the Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) editorial board wrote on 25 October, citing sources in three countries. Russia’s biggest ally in the EU, Orbán has been out of office since May, when Péter Magyar became Hungary’s prime minister.

The UN secretary-general can influence the war through diplomatic negotiations, mediation, and by drawing the Security Council’s attention to Russia’s aggression. António Guterres’s term ends on 31 December, so the council has to settle on a successor within weeks.

According to the WSJ, US officials discussing the next UN chief kept saying they wanted “someone like Orbán,” and their Russian and Chinese counterparts agreed. The US then brought the idea to Orbán himself. Russia and China are believed to support his bid based on those earlier talks with Washington, and the plan is for him to be the three countries’ joint candidate.

Ukraine warns of Orbán’s veto tactics at the UN

Orbán is receptive but has not decided, and he does not want to enter the race unless he is sure he can win, the editorial board wrote. A State Department official counted eight Security Council votes as safe for him and 10 within reach. A candidate needs nine of the 15 votes and no veto from a permanent member. The editorial board asked whether Britain and France, typically cautious in using their veto, would stand in the way. Any announcement is being held until after the 3 November US midterm elections.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote on X that Orbán as secretary-general would put to good use “the masterful veto and blackmail skills” he developed over years of derailing major EU decisions. Ukraine, he added, could share its “great experience of taking him out for coffee at the right moment,” a reference to the December 2023 EU summit, where Orbán left the room so the other leaders could open accession talks with Ukraine without his veto.

Orbán ran Hungary for 16 years as Putin’s closest EU partner

Orbán’s 16 years of “illiberal democracy” eroded democratic values in Hungary. Since 2010, Fidesz has built an enormous partisan media ecosystem. Before the vote, it amended the electoral law twice and gerrymandered more than a third of the electoral districts, so the opposition might need around 55% of the popular vote to win a simple majority. Orbán still lost the 12 April election. Magyar’s Tisza won 138 of 199 seats, a two-thirds majority in parliament.

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Orbán kept close ties with Moscow throughout the full-scale war. When he met Putin in Beijing in October 2023, he spoke of “the military operations and the sanctions” rather than a war. In summer 2024, while Hungary held the EU Council presidency, he flew to Moscow on what he called a peace mission, and the EU distanced itself from the trip. In November 2025, he went back to Moscow, seeking to keep Hungary’s access to Russian oil and gas. He is widely considered Putin’s closest partner among EU leaders. After that visit, he said the only solution was for Ukraine to become a buffer state again, and that the longer peace was delayed, the more people and territory Ukraine would lose.

He used Hungary’s veto against Ukraine until his last weeks in office. In February, Orbán vetoed a €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine amid the disruption of Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia. Hungary lifted its veto in April after repairs to the pipeline were announced. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó phoned Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov from EU meetings for years with “live reports on what’s been discussed,” a European security official told The Washington Post. Szijjártó did not respond to the Post’s request for comment.