Russia is ramping up a campaign of covert mobilization to recruit troops for its war against Ukraine. Over the past month and a half, residents of at least 17 Russian regions have complained of forcible detention, beatings, and coercion into signing contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry, the independent outlet Verstka reported, citing three legal-aid organizations.

Russia recruited 403,000 soldiers in 2025 and set a target of 409,000 for 2026, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said. Since April, Russian companies have been ordered to nominate two to five employees each for military service.

The School of the Conscript recorded 11 complaints in July and August. Five came from Udmurtia, one each from Primorye, Irkutsk, Ryazan, and Arkhangelsk oblasts, one from Buryatia, and one from the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk Oblast.

The victims share a profile

The men targeted are not chosen at random. In most appeals, complainants say the victims are men with alcohol, drug, or mental health problems, older or physically disabled men, men living alone, and men with pending legal trouble, said Timofey Vaskin, who heads the legal department at the School of the Conscript.

Four cases show the method

Idite Lesom documented how the coercion works in practice. In Novorossiysk, a man was taken to a police station, beaten, had drugs planted on him, and was made to sign a contract.

In Arkhangelsk Oblast, a man detained for drinking on the street was sent to the front. In Omsk, a man was taken from his workplace, held, and had the contract signed for him. In Udmurtia, a man was removed from a psychiatric register and sent to Donetsk Oblast.

Recruiters work from state records

The targeting runs on official data. Authorities know who carries debts, who is under investigation, and who has recently lost a driver's license, and those are the people they pursue, said Idite Lesom's director, Grigory Sverdlin.

Volunteers are getting harder to find, which is why the pressure is increasing, he added. Call to Conscience advised men in affected regions to grant relatives the power of attorney to represent them at enlistment offices, avoid drinking alone, and refuse to sign a contract under any circumstances.

Russian UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya denied reports that Moscow could launch another mass mobilization after September’s parliamentary elections, saying none was planned or expected “as far as I know,” The Moscow Times reported

Russia has avoided another draft since its 2022 mobilization triggered protests and an exodus, relying instead on contract soldiers. Ukraine says those recruits no longer replace battlefield losses, and Moscow may mobilize several hundred thousand people after the elections. That could replenish its forces and support new offensives, although Ukrainian intelligence sees no preparations now.

Nebenzya’s remarks followed a question about more than 20,000 people crossing Russia’s Verkhny Lars border checkpoint into Georgia in one day amid fears of post-election mobilization, Meduza reported.

His comments extend a series of Russian denials. Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev dismissed reports of another mobilization as “nonsense” in late July. The State Duma’s defense committee said a mass compulsory call-up was not under consideration because the army was recruiting contract soldiers, The Moscow Times reported.

Russia has avoided another mass draft since its September 2022 mobilization triggered protests and an exodus. Officials had also denied that mobilization was planned shortly before President Vladimir Putin announced it, Meduza noted.

Russian government seeks new wartime penalties

Moscow is separately seeking penalties for people and companies that ignore mobilization and military-supply orders issued by regional authorities. The bill would not itself order a new call-up.

The government submitted it to the State Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, on 20 August, The Moscow Times reported. Companies could face fines of up to 1 million rubles or suspension for up to 90 days.

Russian law already punishes such defiance in areas under martial law but imposes no nationwide penalty elsewhere in Russia, according to the bill. Its authors said a “significant number” of violations had been recorded.

Ukraine says a new draft could provide troops for a northern offensive

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 11 August, citing Ukrainian military intelligence, that Russia planned to mobilize several hundred thousand people after the elections and roughly the same number in 2027.

HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, later assessed that a post-election mobilization could enable Russia to build a strike force for a northern offensive by February 2027. Its deputy chief, Vadym Skibitskyi, stressed, however, that the agency currently sees no evidence that such preparations have begun.

Russia could assemble a strike force for an offensive into northern Ukraine by February 2027 if Moscow launches another mobilization, Ukrainian military intelligence's (HUR) deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi told RBC-Ukraine on 18 August.

Skibitskyi said another mobilization could follow Russia’s September parliamentary elections. Depending on its scale, that call-up could produce a strike force by February 2027. Skibitskyi based the February estimate on Russia’s 2022 mobilization. He said some personnel reached the front in December 2022, while combat-ready units arrived in January 2023.

Earlier warnings identified a northern route

The February estimate follows Ukrainian warnings about possible attacks across the northern border. In May, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was tracking five scenarios for expanding the war through the north, including an advance through Chernihiv Oblast toward Kyiv.

Syrskyi called an attack from Russia’s Bryansk Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast Moscow’s most realistic northern option, ranking it above an operation through Belarus. Its purpose, he said, would be to draw Ukrainian forces away from the east and south.

Russia has also struggled to prepare other major campaigns as Ukraine targeted the forces and systems needed to carry them out. ISW assessed that Ukrainian drones likely disrupted preparations for a spring–summer offensive in Donetsk Oblast, while a planned Russian naval-drone campaign reportedly stalled after Starlink access was blocked.

Ukrainian intelligence says Russia lacks the manpower

Skibitskyi said Moscow cannot form the units required for a new offensive without mobilization. HUR estimates Russia lost more personnel than it recruited in both June and July. The shortfall reached 3,000 in June and at least 1,000 in July, meaning monthly contracts no longer replaced battlefield losses.

The agency says Russia’s operational reserve is about one-tenth the size of its combat component against Ukraine. Moscow also lacks enough personnel to expand brigades into divisions, while recruitment for its unmanned-systems forces has reached only 30% of its quota.

CSIS estimated in January that Russia had suffered losses unmatched by any major state since World War II while advancing extremely slowly.

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) sees no battlefield signs that Russia is preparing for a ceasefire, deputy chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine on 18 August 2026. The agency expects no peace agreement before the end of 2026.

Russia’s General Staff plans to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by year-end, Skibitskyi said. Meanwhile, HUR estimates that Russian personnel losses exceeded contract recruitment in June and July, leaving Moscow unable to create new military formations without mobilization.

HUR estimates Russia lost more troops than it recruited in both June and July. Losses exceeded new contract personnel by 3,000 in June and by at least 1,000 in July, leaving recruitment unable to replace battlefield losses. The agency says Russia’s operational reserve is only about one-tenth the size of the part already engaged in combat against Ukraine.

Russia has set a 2026 target of recruiting 409,000 personnel. Without mobilization, however, Moscow cannot create new formations or turn existing brigades into divisions because it lacks personnel, Skibitskyi said. The recruitment plan for Russia’s unmanned-systems forces is only 30% complete, and the command is trying to fill the gap with personnel from other military branches, he added.

If Russia mobilizes after its September parliamentary elections, it could assemble a powerful strike group by around February 2027, according to HUR. Skibitskyi did not rule out its use for a northern offensive. At present, however, HUR sees no conditions, indicators, or troops for such an operation.

Russia previously targeted September for Donbas

In April, Skibitskyi told the Financial Times that Moscow aimed to capture all of Donbas by September, after missing its deadlines to take Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka. Russia was transferring 20,000 troops from strategic reserves to sustain the offensive, although this amounted to less than one month's worth of its battlefield losses.

By early August, DeepState reported 36 square kilometers of additional Russian-controlled territory across Ukraine in July, a figure that included map corrections for May and June. Without those corrections, Russia gained about 88 square kilometers.

DeepState reported limited progress near Rodynske and Kostiantynivka and toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the heart of Ukraine’s “fortress belt.” At that pace, Russia had “no chance” of capturing all of Donetsk Oblast even by 2027, the group said. It cautioned that another wave of mobilization or a wider deployment of North Korean troops could change the forecast.

In an 11 August 2026 address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated Russia is preparing a new mass mobilization drive after its parliamentary elections this fall, citing an assessment by Ukrainian military intelligence.

Moscow plans to mobilize several hundred thousand people by the end of 2026 and roughly the same number by the end of 2027, he said. The mobilization would come on top of continuing contract recruitment. 

Moscow has relied on contract soldiers and foreign troops to avoid the political cost of another compulsory draft. But Russia has struggled to recruit soldiers as quickly as it loses them. A mass call-up could replace losses and maintain offensive operations, although Ukrainian officials say it may initially do little more than offset battlefield losses.

Zelenskyy said internal Russian documents support the intelligence assessment. The documents have not been published. 

According to Zelenskyy, Putin plans to wait until after Russia’s parliamentary elections, then use the result to claim the Russians support continuing the war. He described the vote as an “imitation,” claiming every party allowed to compete opposes peace. Russia’s Supreme Court barred Yabloko, the country’s only officially registered party opposing the war, from contesting the election, Reuters reported.

Russia avoided a second draft since 2022. Now recruitment can't keep up

The Kremlin has largely avoided another compulsory call-up since its September 2022 mobilization triggered mass protests and an exodus of Russians. Instead, Moscow has used financial incentives and recruited prisoners and foreigners to replenish its forces in Ukraine.

In March 2026, then-Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia aimed to recruit 409,000 troops during 2026 and form at least 11 divisions. Ukrainian intelligence then warned in July that Moscow could mobilize 500,000 people that fall. 

195,000 new contracts signed—but losses keep outpacing recruitment

Russia has struggled to meet those targets while covering battlefield losses. Ukraine said Moscow had failed to replace its losses for five consecutive months by April. By mid-July, Russia had signed 195,000 military contracts against a target of 204,500, while Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service estimated its 2026 personnel losses at 196,700.

In his 11 August 2026 address, Zelenskyy claimed Russia is losing at least 30,000 personnel monthly, 60% of them killed, and that its force in Ukraine is gradually shrinking. The figures could not be independently verified.

Zelenskyy also said Putin expects the recruits and North Korean troops to prolong the war and expand Russian offensive capacity. The president stated that he had ordered Ukraine’s intelligence agencies and special services to make Moscow’s plans harder to carry out, but gave no details.

Latvia will open military mobilization centers in four cities and build anti-tank barriers in its capital this week as the Baltic NATO member rehearses wartime call-up procedures, Latvian Public Media (LSM) reported. The drills come as multiple Western intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may test NATO's eastern flank with a limited military provocation within years.

Latvia rehearses crisis conscription

On 8 August, Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS) will deploy mobilization centers in Rīga, Kuldīga, Valmiera, and Alūksne. The purpose is to train and improve procedures for calling up and conscripting Latvian citizens in a crisis. Citizens who applied for voluntary reserve training will report to the centers and travel to the Infantry School in Alūksne for a three-week military course.

The course, running from 8 to 29 August, will train 114 reservists in weapons handling, combat shooting, communications, topography, terrain orientation, field combat, and advanced first aid. After completing the program, reservists will take the soldier's oath, receive a reserve soldier's certificate and a mobilization order. Reserve soldiers must refresh their skills every four years.

Both women and men — Latvian citizens aged 18 to 60 with at least primary education, intermediate Latvian, no criminal record, and good health — can apply.

Today, on 7 August, a separate exercise in the capital will test Riga's ability to erect anti-mobility engineering structures — physical obstacles designed to slow enemy forces in urban environments. 

Explore further

What Moscow does to foreign embassies, Latvia will now do to Russia’s

Defense preparations accelerate amid Russian threats

The drills are the latest in a series of concrete defense steps Latvia has taken as the threat from Russia grows. 

Latvia's military chief warned in June that Russia could exploit its drone advantage to attack the Baltics by the end of 2028. In July, Latvia hardened security at its hydroelectric dam and gas storage facility after intelligence flagged specific Russian threats, and its prime minister asked NATO for more troops and air defense. 

Latvia completed a 280-km border fence in late 2025.

Editor's note: This story was updated with the latest information from the Kharkiv Oblast Prosecutor's Office.

Russian drones struck Ukrainian conscription offices in the cities of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia early on July 7, injuring at least three people in Kharkiv, while also damaging military infrastructure, Ukraine's Ground Forces said. At least one soldier was wounded in Zaporizhzhia.

The attack comes as Russia increases its efforts to disrupt mobilization in Ukraine.

"As a result of the attack, (Russian) drones hit the building of the Kharkiv conscription office and the surrounding area, as well as near the Zaporizhzhia conscription office," the Ground Forces said.

Two other districts of Kharkiv came under attack that same day, in which one woman was killed and over 80 people, including eight children, were reported injured or suffered shock in Kharkiv, according to the local prosecutor's office.

The strikes are the latest in what Ukrainian military officials describe as a deliberate Russian campaign to target enlistment infrastructure and undermine mobilization efforts.

On July 3, a deadly Russian strike on the central city of Poltava killed two people and injured 47 others. The attack caused a fire at the city's military conscription office and heavily damaged nearby civilian buildings, including civilian houses.

Speaking on national television after the Poltava attack, Ukraine's Ground Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev said Russia was intentionally striking enlistment centers to disrupt Ukraine's ability to replenish its Armed Forces.

"We will continue to strengthen our army, train our troops, and involve more people in defense to deliver a strong response to the enemy," Sarantsev said.

HUR publishes Russian military order, claims proof of Moscow increasing military footprint in Armenia

HUR first made the claim on July 5, saying Russia was increasing its forces at the Gyumri base to exert greater influence in the South Caucasus and “destabilize the global security situation.”

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

Editor's note: This item has been updated to include the statement from Ground Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev.

A Russian strike on Poltava, central Ukraine, killed two people and injured 47 others on the morning of July 3, local and military officials said.

The attack, which occurred around 9 a.m. local time, sparked fires and damaged civilian infrastructure, according to Governor Volodymyr Kohut and Ukraine's Ground Forces.

The State Emergency Service reported that 84 emergency workers, including psychologists, pyrotechnicians, and medics, were deployed at the site of the attacks. Firefighters extinguished the fires, cleared the rubble, and rescued 10 people from the damaged buildings.

According to the statement of Ukraine's Ground Forces, one of the strikes caused a fire at the Poltava conscription office, a local military facility. A separate strike near the Poltava conscription office set fire to a private residential property, authorities said.

Speaking on national television, Ukraine's Ground Forces spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev said that Russia was deliberately targeting conscription offices to disrupt Ukraine's mobilization efforts.

"We will continue to strengthen our army, train our troops, and involve more people in defense to deliver a strong response to the enemy," Sarantsev said.

This wasn't the first time Russia has been linked to such attacks. Back in February, Moscow recruited the man who carried out a deadly bombing at a military enlistment office in the city of Rivne in northwestern Ukraine.

‘Major casualties among civilians’ — US freeze on air defense missiles is terrible news for Ukraine

The halting of deliveries of air defense missiles from the U.S. will lead to“major casualties among civilians,” a deputy commander in Ukraine’s air defense told the Kyiv Independent. Politico reported on July 1 that the U.S. Defense Department (DOD) had halted shipments of some weapons previously

The Kyiv IndependentKollen Post

Ukraine's one-year military contract for volunteers aged 18 to 24 is proving effective on the battlefield, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said at a June 26 press briefing, citing fresh reports from commanders across the front line.

Umerov said units made up of young contract soldiers had shown "resilience, professionalism, and confident actions in combat," challenging early skepticism about the new recruitment model.

"We saw them on the battlefield — and it's truly motivating."

The contract, launched in February, offers substantial benefits to young volunteers. It includes basic general military training, vocational training, and an adaptation course in an army unit. Volunteers will receive a one-time monetary aid payment of Hr 1 million ($24,000) and a monthly allowance of up to Hr 120,000 ($3,000).

The campaign initially faced backlash from some front-line troops and activists, who argued it created unfair disparities in pay and support. Now, the initiative is being credited with improving performance in specific units, Umerov said, citing internal military assessments received by the ministry two weeks ago.

Umerov, however, hasn't shared the number of soldiers recruited through the campaign.

The campaign is under constant evaluation based on financial, personnel, and training metrics. Umerov said the Defense Ministry is working to enhance the motivational package further, using data and feedback from participants and focus groups.

Despite pressure from international partners, particularly the United States, to lower Ukraine’s mobilization age from 25 to 18, service for those aged 18–24 remains voluntary. President Volodymyr Zelensky has consistently rejected compulsory mobilization starting at 18, warning that it could damage Ukraine's long-term future.

In a recent interview, Zelensky said Ukraine's Western allies have at times withheld new sanctions on Russia over Kyiv's refusal to lower the draft age. He stressed that the "weapons and technology," rather than raw manpower, were more decisive on the battlefield.

Ukraine faces personnel challenges as Russian forces continue to press along the front line. While a mobilization reform law lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 in 2024, the pace of new enlistment has slowed, leaving infantry units understaffed.

"The younger generation is a powerful human resource that deserves support and development," Umerov said.

Facing manpower shortage, Ukrainian brigade turns to women in first-ever female recruitment drive

Editor’s note: This article originated as a winning story idea in a vote by members of the Kyiv Independent’s community. Join our community today and join our exclusive members-only Discord channel, where you can discuss and suggest stories, ask our journalists questions, and more. “Her strength is her

The Kyiv IndependentNatalia Yermak

More than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been prosecuted for refusing to fight in Ukraine, a Russian independent media outlet Mediazona reported on June 26, citing online data from military courts.

As of late May, Mediazona had documented 20,538 such cases since September 2022 (when the Kremlin announced a first wave of partial mobilization) compared to 10,025 cases reported as of June 2024.

Of these, 18,159 were cases of soldiers going AWOL, 1,369 cases of failure to comply with an order, and 1,010 cases of desertion.

According to Mediazona, 17,721 of the accused have already been sentenced.

The Insider reported that Moscow uses a systematic program of "gulag-style" abuse directed at its soldiers in Ukraine in order to "maintain order" and punish perceived offenders.

Reports of Russian soldiers being abused by commanders and fellow troops have emerged since the full-scale war against Ukraine began.

Moscow has only intensified its war effort despite calls by Kyiv, the U.S., and European partners for an unconditional ceasefire as a first step toward a peace deal.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Russia recruits around 40,000-45,000 men for its military every month.

Although Russia did go through phases of mobilization and has made great use of its prison population, most new recruits have for a while been volunteer contract soldiers, lured in by one-time signup bonuses often more than several years' average salary in poorer regions of Russia.

In late 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the size of Russia's Armed Forces to about 2.4 million, including 1.5 million military personnel.

’50,000 Russian troops pinned down’ — Ukraine halts advance in Sumy Oblast, summer offensive ‘faltering,’ Syrskyi says

“This year’s wave of the enemy’s ‘summer offensive’ from Russian territory is faltering,” Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

The Kyiv IndependentTim Zadorozhnyy

The Ukrainian military leadership aims to overhaul the draft office system amid numerous reports of abuses since the start of Russia's invasion in 2022, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

To "clean up the system", 136 officers and 325 other service members from the draft offices involved in misconduct were transferred to other positions in the army, Syrskyi said at a briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent.

Mobilization of men through the draft offices remains the main source of manpower for the Ukrainian army which defends against Russia's much more numerous forces in a war of attrition, Syrskyi added.

Draft offices are often accused, at times justly, of forced conscription without compliance with fundamental civil rights and ill-treatment of conscripts in recruitment centers. These reports are used by Russian propaganda to help escalate social tensions in Ukraine and further damage Ukraine's recruitment efforts.

"Cases of forced detention of citizens (by the draft officers) are absolutely unacceptable," Syrskyi said during the briefing.

Ukrainian leadership expects the newly appointed commander of Ukraine's Ground Forces, Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov, to "overcome problematic issues," Syrskyi added.

Shapovalov's appointment on June 17 followed the resignation of Mykhailo Drapatyi earlier this month after a Russian missile strike killed at least 12 Ukrainian soldiers at a training ground in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Inspections are underway in the draft centers to send draft officers without battlefield experience to the front, replacing them with soldiers wounded in battles, Syrskyi said.

Draft offices should fulfill their duties and "disallow these shameful cases that sometimes occur," according to Syrskyi.

"Corrupt officials and violators of the law in the mobilization process must be exposed. All necessary measures should be taken against such violators," Syrskyi added.

Ukraine is failing the mobilization test

Ukrainian society largely does not want to mobilize. Nearly 6 million Ukrainian men have not updated their information in military enlistment centers, and most of them likely don’t have grounds for a deferment or exemption. Forced mobilization of these men is categorically opposed by society. Rosy-cheeked aunts gather and shout

The Kyiv IndependentIllia Krotenko

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing renewed pressure from hardliners to formally declare war on Ukraine, with critics inside the Kremlin warning what he calls his "special military operation" no longer goes far enough.

Anger intensified following Ukraine’s June 1 drone strike, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, which targeted four Russian air bases deep inside the country and reportedly damaged at least 20 Russian nuclear bombers. "Shock and outrage" is how one senior official described to the Telegraph the mood in the Kremlin, while another called the attack "a personal tragedy."

Russia has apparently redeployed dozens of long-range bombers to more remote bases within the country following the strike, Russian independent media outlet Agentstvo reported on June 11, citing OSINT analyst AviVector.

Despite the escalation, the Kremlin has so far avoided any dramatic shift in strategy. "This did not catalyse a political discussion or a change in the format of military operations," a former Kremlin official told the Telegraph. Another source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said, "Could the president declare war on Kyiv? Right now, unlikely. As cynical as it may sound, the leadership is satisfied with the current situation."

Hardliners argue that only a formal war declaration would permit true escalation—full-scale mobilization, regular missile strikes, and potentially the use of tactical nuclear weapons. One analyst told the Telegraph that a formal war declaration would give the Russian government sweeping authority to shift the country fully onto a wartime footing.

However, despite record levels of defense spending, the Kremlin has avoided taking that step—seeking instead to preserve the illusion of control and protect the broader population from the immediate impact of the war.

The Kremlin is projected to allocate 6.3 percent of its GDP to defense this year — the highest level since the Cold War — yet still far below what would typically indicate a country fully mobilized for war. By contrast, Ukraine spent 34 percent of its GDP on defense last year, while British military spending surpassed 50 percent of GDP during the Second World War.

"Mobilization undermines economic stability," said one current government employee. According to him, those in Putin’s inner circle have convinced the president that large-scale mobilization could trigger the collapse of the war effort. "And why is it needed now? We have Kalibr missiles, we have volunteers. Their resources are not yet exhausted," he was quoted as saying.

Ukraine’s SBU releases fresh video of Operation Spiderweb, teases ‘new surprises’

“The SBU is hitting and will hit (Russia) where it considers itself unreachable!” SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk said. “We are working on new surprises, no less painful than the Operation Spiderweb.”

The Kyiv IndependentMartin Fornusek